TRB - Annual Meeting NATIONAL DREDGING NEEDS STUDY PHILLIP J. THORPE Institute for Water Resources 16 January 2002
AGENDA Background Information Historical Perspective Global and US Trade World and US Port Comparison World and US Fleets US Shipping and Fleet Forecasts Dredging Needs Trends
Background Information Legislative Requirements Existing and Projected Future Project Depths Types and Sizes of Ships in Use World Trade Patterns Assessment of the Future National Waterside Infrastructure Needs Comparison of Depths of U.S. and Selected World Ports
Background Information Study Objectives Compile Strategic Maritime Information for Analysis Provide consistent information base of economic activity and channel demand Identify Corps Deep Draft projects with potential for deeper channels
Background Information Accomplishments Collected, Compiled & Analyzed Strategic Maritime Information Analyzed Current and Future Traffic for Channel Usage Examined Several Methodologies for Measuring Dredging Needs Compared Constrained Movements Against Planned Improvements
Background Information Strategic Maritime Information COMMODITY TYPES & AMOUNTS (Tons, Value, TEUs) BY DIRECTION; TRADING REGIONS/ROUTES; VESSEL TYPE & SIZE; ORIGIN & DESTINATION; U.S. & FOREIGN PORT; CORPS PROJECT VESSEL TYPES; SIZES; & DISTRIBUTIONS; U.S. & FOREIGN PORT; TRADING ROUTE/ITINERARY; COMMODITY TYPE & AMOUNTS; PHYSICAL & OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS PORTS INFRASTRUCTURE; CORPS PROJECTS; DEPTHS; COMMODITY TYPES & AMOUNTS; VESSEL CALLS BY TYPE & SIZE; TRADING PARTNERS; MARKET AREAS
Background Information FORECASTS COMMODITY FLOWS IMPORTS & EXPORTS AT COASTAL & PORT LEVEL VESSELS TYPES & SIZES NUMBER OF CALLS TONNAGE CARRIED FUTURE SAILING DRAFTS AT COASTAL & PORT LEVEL PORTS AT COASTAL & PORT LEVEL
Historical Perspective Real Value of Traded Goods (1946 to 1996 in Billions of 96 USD) $1,600 billions of $U.S. $1,200 $800 $400 Total Exports Imports $0 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994
Historical Perspective Real Value of Trade as a % of GDP 30% (1959 to 1998 in Billions of 96 USD) 25% 20% % of GDP 15% 10% 5% 0% 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998
Global and US Trade Patterns of Global & US Maritime Trade World Trade has grown at double the rate of economic output World Trade growth caused by changes in global market place More open door trading changes in international investment Growth in World container trade equally strong Strong demand for goods Vessel development Port development
Global and US Trade Patterns of Global & US Maritime Trade US Trade growth has been robust Imports - 8% per annum Exports - 7% per annum Reasons for US Trade growth Strong Dollar Strong Productivity Low Inflation Low Interest Rates
Global and US Trade US International Trade (1992 to 2040 in Billions of 1987 USD) $15,000 Actual Forecast $10,000 Imports Exports Total $5,000 Source: WEFA Inc. $0 1992 1996 2010 2040
Global and US Trade US Trade by World Region (Tonnage) Asia Canada, Mexico, Central America Europe South America Africa Mid East Australia Other 0 40 80 120 160 200 millions of metric tons Imports Exports
Global and US Trade US Trade by World Region (Value) Asia Canada, Mexico, Central America Europe South America Africa Mid East Australia Other $0 $40 $80 $120 $160 $200 $240 $ billions Imports Exports
Global and US Trade US Trade by Coast (Tonnage) 500 400 metric tons (millions) 300 200 100 0 Gulf Coast Atlantic Coast Pacific Coast Great Lakes Total Imports Exports
Global and US Trade US Trade by Coast (Value) $300 $200 $billions $100 $0 Pacific Coast Atlantic Coast Gulf Coast Great Lakes Total Imports Exports
Global and US Trade Growth in U.S. TEU Throughput TEUs (Million) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 Year Source: Containerization International
Global and US Trade US Container Trade by Coast 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Atlantic Coast Pacific Coast Gulf Coast Great Lakes metric tons $U.S.
World and US Port US Army Corps Comparison US cargo distributions Top 50 World ports Top 5 commodities for Top World ports Top 10 World ports by US Coast Infrastructure and facilities Infrastructure development Channel depths
World and US Port US Army Corps Comparison Cargo Distribution (Tonnage and Value) World Ports Top 25 Ports handle 30% of Tonnage Top 50 Ports handle 43% of Tonnage Top 25 Ports handle 50% of Value Top 50 Ports handle 63% of Value US Ports Top 25 Ports handle 76% of Tonnage Top 50 Ports handle 91% of Tonnage Top 25 Ports handle 89% of Value Top 50 Ports handle 96% of Value
Top World Ports TONNAGE VALUE TOP 20 PORTS 28.2% 50.2% 6 Asia 13 Asia 4 So. Am. 6 Eur. 3 No. Am. 1 So. Am. 3 Eur. 3 Africa 1 Mid-East
World Container Ports Meters Feet GOTHENBURG, SWEDEN 12.0 39.4 ROTTERDAM, NETHERLANDS 15.9-16.6 52.0-54.5 SOUTHAMPTON, UK 12.8-15.0 42.0-49.2 ALGECIRAS, SPAIN 15.0-16.0 49.2-52.5 SINGAPORE 15.0 49.2 SALALAH, OMAN 15.0-16.0 49.2-52.5 PORT SAID, EGYPT 16.0 52.5 HONG KONG, CHINA 15.0 49.2 KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN 14.0-15.0 46.0-49.2 KOBE, JAPAN 12.0-15.0 39.4-49.2 NAGOYA, JAPAN 15.0 49.2 YOKOHAMA, JAPAN 12.0-14.0 39.4-46.0 Source: Containerisation International Yearbook 1998
World and US Port US Army Corps Comparison World and US ports are comparable in landside infrastructure (Berths and Cranes) World and US container ports are developing both new terminals and intermodal connections US container ports tend to be shallower than World ports particularly along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts
World and US Fleets World Fleet Capacity by Vessel Type Oil Tankers 41.5% Dry Bulk Ships 37.0% Containerships Break-Bulk Ships Combination Carriers Multi-Purpose Specialized Tankers Refrigerated Vessels Ro-Ro Ships Vehicle Carriers 6.9% 3.5% 3.3% 2.8% 1.9% 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Source: WEFA Analysis of Clarkson Research Data.
World and US Fleets World Fleet Capacity Growth by Vessel Type (per annum from 1985 to 1999) Containerships 8.8% Specialized Tankers Vehicle Carriers Multi-Purpose Ships Dry Bulk Ships Ro-Ro Ships Refrigerated Ships Oil Tankers Combination Carriers Break-Bulk Ships -6.9% -5.8% 2.4% 2.3% 1.9% 1.5% 0.4% 4.7% 4.5% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Percent Change 1985-1999 Source: WEFA Analysis of Clarkson Research Data.
World and US Fleets World Containership Growth in Cargo Capacity 5.0 (TEUs) 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 TEU (millions) 1.20 1.34 1.43 1.55 1.65 1.78 1.92 2.08 2.25 2.50 2.82 3.23 3.72 4.17 Source: WEFA Analysis of Clarkson Research Data.
World and US Fleets Distribution of Dry Bulk Vessels (by design draft) 600 # of vessels 400 200 World U.S. 0 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 design draft (feet) Source: PMCL Analysis of Fairplay Ship Register Data and WCSC data
World and US Fleets Distribution of Containership Vessels 200 (by design draft) number of vesse 160 120 80 40 World U.S. 0 24 29 34 39 44 49 design draft (feet) Source: PMCL Analysis of Fairplay Ship Register Data and WCSC data
World and US Fleets Number of Vessels Calling US Ports (by vessel type: 1996 data) Dry Bulk 3,024 General Cargo 1862 Tankers 1175 Containerships 677 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Source: PMCL Analysis of Fairplay Ship Register Data and WCSC data Number of Ships
World and US Fleets Number of Vessel Calls at US Ports (by vessel type: 1996 data) Containerships 34,840 General Cargo 22,537 Dry Bulk 17,941 Tankers 11,143 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 Source: PMCL Analysis of Fairplay Ship Register Data and WCSC data Number of U.S. Port Calls
US Shipping and Fleet US Army Corps Forecast Growth in US Container Throughput 60,000 50,000 TEUs (thousands) 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Year 2000 Year 2010 Year 2020 Source: WEFA Inc. Imports Exports Total
US Shipping and Fleet US Army Corps Forecast Forecast of Annual Vessel Calls 160 (by Vessel Type) calls (thousands) 120 80 40 Tankers Dry Bulk Containership General Cargo Other 0 year 2000 year 2010 year 2020 Based on WCSC Data
NATIONAL DREDGING US Army Corps NEEDS STUDY Expected Increase in Annual Vessel Calls to/from U.S. Ports 80 60 thousands of calls 40 20 0 Tankers Dry Bulk Containership General Cargo Other Increase 16.92 16.66 79.17 28.31 5.27
US Shipping and Fleet US Army Corps Forecast Forecast of Annual Vessel Calls on Atlantic Coast 75 (by Vessel Type) Calls (Thousands) 60 45 30 Tanker Dry Bulk Continership General Cargo Other 15 Based on WCSC Data 0 year 2000 year 2010 year 2020
US Shipping and Fleet US Army Corps Forecast Forecast of Annual Vessel Calls on Pacific Coast 45 (by Vessel Type) Calls (Thousands) 30 15 Tanker Dry Bulk Continership General Cargo Other Based on WCSC Data 0 year 2000 year 2010 year 2020
US Shipping and Fleet US Army Corps Forecast Forecast of Annual Vessel Calls on Gulf Coast 30 (by Vessel Type) Calls (Thousands) 15 Tanker Dry Bulk Continership General Cargo Other Based on WCSC Data 0 year 2000 year 2010 year 2020
Dredging Needs Methodology Dredging Need = Demand for Unconstrained Channel Usage Channel vs. Ship Size Project/Channel Depth Compared to Vessel Design Draft Estimated Constrained Vessel Calls Current and Future
Dredging Needs Constrained Vessel Calls with & w/o Corps Projects 80 constrained calls (thousands) 60 40 20 With Planned Projects Without Planned Projects 0 Year 2000 Year 2010 Year 2020
Dredging Needs Constrained Vessel Calls by Coast with & w/o Corps Projects 30 25 Year 2000 constrained calls (thousands) 20 15 10 Year 2020 with planned projects Year 2020 without planned projects 5 0 Atlantic Coast Pacific Coast Gulf Coast Great Lakes
Dredging Needs Constrained Containership Calls by Coast with & w/o Corps Projects 20 constrained calls (thousands) 16 12 8 4 Year 2000 Year 2020 with planned projects Year 2020 without planned projects 0 Atlantic Coast Pacific Coast Gulf Coast Great Lakes
Trends International trade is important for U.S. economic growth. Primary trades are East- West (Asia & Europe) U.S. trade is important for world growth. U.S. is No. 1 market for containerized trade Growth in international trade is expected to continue (4% - 5%) Traffic (tonnage) expected to more than double by 2020. Containers (TEUs) are expected to double in 10 years and quadruple in 20 years
Trends Trade growth means increased congestion and industry consolidation Increased congestion will increase Asian traffic through the Suez Canal Industry consolidation means larger vessels (mega-containerships) and traffic consolidation (hub ports) Mega-containerships and hub ports require deeper channels and increased port capacity (mega-terminals)
National Dredging US Army Corps Needs Study Questions?