FR13, Paris, France, 4-7 March 213 Japanese FR Deployment Scenario Study after the Fukushima Accident Kiyoshi ONO Hiroki SHIOTANI, Akira OHTAKI, Kyoko MUKAIDA and Tomoyuki ABE Japan Atomic Energy Agency E-mail: ono.kiyoshi@jaea.go.jp
Schedule of political discussion for the energy and environment June Presentation of three scenarios for future energy supply (June 29) The Energy and Environmental Council provided three scenarios. July National debate Public hearing sessions (at 11 places nationwide) Solicitation of public comments September Decide on Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment (Council report, Sept. 14) The Government will mobilize all possible policy resources to such a level as to even enable zero operation of nuclear power plants in the 23 s. Cabinet decision for a New Strategic Energy Plan of Japan (Sept. 19) December Change of government (Dec. 16) Replacement from the Democratic Party to the Liberal Democratic Party Interruption of formulation of Framework for Nuclear Energy Policy January Re-examination of Nuclear Energy Policy (Jan. 25) New cabinet announced that the previous administration's zeronuclear policy should be reviewed with a clean slate. 1
New Energy Policy -The Energy & Environment Council Decision - Energy and Environmental Council provided three scenarios which can reduce dependence on nuclear energy as well as on fossil fuels and reduce CO 2 emissions based on the examination of Fundamental Issues Subcommittee, June 29, 212. The share of the future nuclear power generation was anticipated. Electric power generation ratio of the three scenarios for 23 Numerical values other than the current scenario are as of 23. Scenarios % 15% 2-25% Current Scenario Scenario Scenario (21) Nuclear energy % 15 % 2-25 % 26 % Renewable energy 35 % 3 % 25-3 % 1 % Fossil fuel 65 % 55 % 5 % 63 % CO 2 emission - 23 % - 23 % - 25 % -.3 % Electric Power Generation 1.1 trillion kwh at 21 Approximately 1 trillion kwh at 23 CO 2 emission are value of comparison with 199. 2
Nuclear Fuel Cycle Policy -Options for Spent Fuels- Option 1: Full reprocessing policy (Current Policy) All spent fuels are reprocessed and the recovered uranium and plutonium are reused. Commercialization of fast breeder reactors (FBR) or fast reactors (FR) is necessary. Option 2: Dual policy of reprocessing and direct disposal Both reprocessing and direct disposal of spent fuels are kept as options. FBRs/FRs is an option to prepare for future uncertainty. Option 3: Full direct disposal policy All spent fuels are disposed after adequate storage period. FBRs/FRs is not an option. 3
Nuclear Fuel Cycle Policy -Anticipated Ratio of Nuclear Power Generation- Scenario Share of nuclear energy at 23 Nuclear fuel cycle policy % Scenario 15% Scenario 2% Scenario Previous Scenario % 15 % 2 % 3-4% Full direct disposal Dual policy of reprocessing and direct disposal Full reprocessing 5 GWe 2% scenario (about 3 Gwe at 23) Focused on 15% scenario in this study % scenario 15% scenario (about 2GWe at 23) Today 22 23 4
Nuclear capacity (GWe) Long-Term FR Deployment Scenario in Japan -Nuclear Capacity and Evaluation Case- Future nuclear capacities were assumed based on the energy policy debate by the Government. Two scenarios were assumed. First, the nuclear capacity remains constant at 2GWe after 23. Second, it gradually reduces to zero after 23. Three cases regarding nuclear fuel cycle were set up. 6 5 4 Long-term nuclear capacity Assumptions 2GWe Constant: LWR 4 yrs., FR 6 yrs. Gradual decrease : LWR 4 yrs. (LWR inc. existing and replacing reactors) Evaluation case [a] 2GWe constant after 23 case - Full Reprocessing - Direct Disposal 3 2 [a] 2GWe constant after 23 [b] Gradual decrease from 2 GWe after 23 case 1 [b] Gradual decrease from 2GWe - Full Reprocessing after 23 - (Partial Reprocessing) 21 2526 21211 215 - Direct Disposal 5
Reactor Item Condition Deployment year Demo. reactor: 225, Comm. reactor: 25 Average burn-up Breeding (Conversion) ratio Capacity per unit Lifetime/Load Factor 6 years / 8% Fuel fab. Commercial Facility Reprocessing Long-Term FR Deployment Scenario in Japan Assumptions for FRs Commercial Facility -Main Assumptions (1/2)- Demo. reactor: 6 (initial) ~ 15 GWd/t Comm. reactor: 15 GWd/t Demo. reactor: 1.1 Comm. reactor: 1.1(early phase) ~ 1.3 Burner reactor:.6 Demo. reactor: 75MWe Comm. reactor & burner reactor: 1,5MWe Starts before the FR deployment, 1t/y or 2t/y (according to the demand), MA upper limit: 5% Starts after the FR deployment, 1t/y or 2t/y (according to the demand), MA recovery considered 6
Long-Term FR Deployment Scenario in Japan -Main Assumptions (2/2)- Assumptions for LWRs Reactor Item Average burn-up Condition 45 (before 23) ~ 6GWd/t Lifetime/Load Factor 4 years / 8% Future facilities after the Rokkasho plant Assumptions for wastes Spent fuel storage Reprocessing Geological repository Item Storage period Deployment year Starts after the closure of the Rokkasho plant Possible for reprocessing of MOX and high burn-up fuels, MA recovery Condition Recycle case: less than 4 years before reprocessing Direct disposal case: 48 years before disposal Vitrified waste: 237 (upright position in hard rock) Spent fuel: 247 (upright position in hard rock) 7
Nuclear capacity (GWe) Nuclear capacity (GWe) Results on 2GWe constant case (1/4) -Breakdown of Nuclear Capacity- Full Reprocessing case : Pu recycling in LWRs will be implemented over 4 years by using Pu recovered from overseas and Rokkasho plants. All LWRs will be replaced by FRs within about 2 years after 27. Direct Disposal case : Pu recycling in LWRs will be implemented over 1 years by using Pu mainly recovered from overseas reprocessing plants. 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 FBR(BR=1.3) LWR-MOX FBR(BR=1.1) LWR-UO2 Full Reprocessing (FR deployment) Transition phase FBR(B.R.1.1) 1 1 Pu recycling LWR 1 1 LWR in LWR FBR(B.R.1.3) 21 25 26 21211 215 21 25 26 21211 215 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 LWR-MOX Direct Disposal Pu recycling in LWR LWR-UO2 8
Cumulative U demand (1, tnu) SF stockpile (1, thm) Full reprocessing make it possible to reduce natural U demand drastically after FR deployment and fully independent from foreign natural U in around 29. It will be reduced to half of Direct disposal at 215. SF stockpile in Full Reprocessing case remains at 1,-2,t until around 26. Additional capacity will be needed until 28. SF stockpile in Direct disposal case will be reached up to 35,t before 25 and become constant at about 17,t after 28. Additional capacity of 1,- 2,t will be needed. 6 5 4 3 2 1 Results on 2GWe constant case (2/4) -Cumulative Uranium Demand and Spent Fuel Stockpile- Cumulative Uranium Demand Direct Disposal Reduction Full Reprocessing 21 26 211 21 25 21 215 44 354 33 253 22 152 11 5 1 Spent Fuel Stockpile Direct Disposal Full Reprocessing 21 26 211 Mutsu RFS capacity (~5,t) Rokkasho SF pool capacity (~3,t) SF storage capacity at reactor sites 21 25 21 215 Note: Each SF occupancy of 5 out of 17 reactor sites in Japan exceeds 7% (Sept. 211) 9
Disposal Volume (1 4 m 3 ) Disposal Volume (1 4 m 3 ) Results on 2GWe constant case (3/4) - Radioactive Wastes- In Full Reprocessing case, low-level radioactive waste (LLW) volume will be increased due to the deployment of reprocessing facilities, whereas high-level radioactive waste (HLW) volume will be decreased. Total volume will be reduced to less than half of Direct disposal case. In Direct disposal case, the amount of SF will be continuously increased. 5 4 3 2 1 5 4 3 2 1 Full Reprocessing (FR deployment) LLW (geological disposal) Vitrified waste 21 26 211 5 4 3 2 1 21 26 211 21 25 21 215 21 25 21 215 5 4 3 2 1 Direct Disposal LLW (geological disposal type) (not identified because of small figure) LWR-SF 1
Pu inventory (tpuf) Pu inventory (tpuf) Results on 2GWe constant case (4/4) -Plutonium Inventory- Full Reprocessing case enables to lower Pu inventory in the whole fuel cycle facilities by FR deployment following the Pu recycling in LWR. Direct disposal case leaves large amount of Pu within the SF in storage facility for cooling in the near-term and in geological repositories in the long-term. 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 Full Reprocessing (FR deployment) Pu in disposal facilities (not identified because of small figures) 1 Pu in ground facilities 21 26 211 21 25 21 215 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 Direct Disposal Pu in ground facilities 2 1 Pu in disposal facilities 21 26 211 21 25 21 215 11
Nuclear capacity (GWe) Nuclear capacity (GWe) Results on gradual decrease after 23 case (1/2) -Nuclear Capacities- In Full Reprocessing case, FR will be introduced up to about 5 GWe after the implementation of Pu recycling in LWR, in order to pursuit reduction of radioactive wastes. In Direct disposal case, Pu recycling in LWRs will be implemented for over 1 years by using Pu mainly recovered from overseas reprocessing plants. 6 6 FR (CR.6) LWR-MOX LWR-UO2 Full Reprocessing (FR deployment) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 Pu recycling in LWR 3 2 2 LWR 2 LWR Pu recycling in LWR FR (C.R.: ~.6) 1 1 1 1 21 25 26 21 211 215 216 21 2526 21 211 215 6 LWR-MOX Direct Disposal LWR-UO2 12
Pu inventory (tpuf) Pu inventory (tpuf) Results on Gradual decrease after 23 case (2/2) -Plutonium Inventory- Full Reprocessing case enables to lower the Pu inventory in the whole fuel cycle facilities to the half of Direct disposal case. Direct disposal case leaves 2t Pu within the SF in ground facilities and/or disposal site. Furthermore, in Full Reprocessing case, the total volume of HLWs and LLWs decreases to about the half of Direct disposal case. 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 Full reprocessing (FR deployment) Pu in disposal facilities 1 Pu in ground facilities 21 26 211 21 25 21 215 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 Direct Disposal Pu in ground facilities 2 Pu in disposal 1 facilities 21 26 211 21 25 21 215 13
Conclusion The results revealed a need for the implementation of reprocessing and development of FR from the view point of reducing waste, etc. in the medium to long term. JAEA s contribution to international cooperation and standardization focusing on the enhancement of safety and reduction of the radioactive waste burden will be increasingly important in current situation. JAEA intend to continue to build and propose FR deployment scenarios and identify their characteristics. 14
Thank you for your attention! 15