Using Habitat and Species Vulnerability to Determine Conservation Priorities in a Changing Climate Mike Harley and Nikki Kent, AEA
Impact and vulnerability assessment framework a) Impact assessment b) Vulnerability assessment high Sensitivity high climate impact high Adaptive capacity resilient vulnerable low low low climate impact low high low Climate exposure Climate Impact high
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - definitions Exposure: nature and degree to which a system is exposed to climatic variations Sensitivity: degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate change Impact: all impacts that may occur given a projected change in climate, without considering adaptation; impact is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed and its sensitivity Adaptive capacity: ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences Vulnerability: degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes; vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity Resilience: amount of change a system can undergo without changing state
IPCC SRES GHG emissions scenarios A1F1: a high scenario, with a global average surface warming of up to 4.0 o C by the end of the 21 st Century (likely range 2.4-6.4 o C) A2: a medium-high scenario, with a global average surface warming of up to 3.4 o C by the end of the 21 st Century (likely range 2.0-5.4 o C) B2: a medium-low scenario, with a global average surface warming of up to 2.4 o C by the end of the 21 st Century (likely range 1.4-3.8 o C) B1: a low scenario, with a global average surface warming of up to 1.8 o C by the end of the 21 st Century (likely range 1.1-2.9 o C)
Changes in climate space overlap and ratio
Impact categories Overlap and ratio sensitivity values defining the impact category <30% 30-50% 50-70% 70-100% >100% Overlap impact category Very high High Moderate Low NA* Ratio impact category Very high (< in climate space) High (< in climate space) Moderate (< in climate space) Low (< in climate space) > in climate space
Subalpine and montane Pinus uncinata forests Time horizon 2050 2050 2050 2050 2080 2080 2080 2080 SRES Scenario A1F1 A2 B2 B1 A1F1 A2 B2 B1 Overlap Overlap impact category Ratio Ratio impact category 69.3% Moderate 88.2% Low - decline 71.6% Low 89.7% Low - decline 70.7% Low 89.4% Low - decline 70.5% Low 88.8% Low - decline 45.1% High 76.3% Low - decline 55.6% Moderate 81.5% Low - decline 61.4% Moderate 83.8% Low - decline 59.8% Moderate 89.4% Low - decline
Adaptive capacity - general restrictions Small population and/or range in Europe Low survival and/or productivity rates Long generation times Declining population in Europe Low genetic diversity Specialised and uncommon habitat requirements Narrow niche Critical association with another vulnerable species
Adaptive capacity - colonisation restrictions Barriers to dispersal (e.g. water, topography and manmade barriers) Limited dispersal and/or colonisation ability Mainly distributed in fragmented habitats that limit dispersal
Trait scores for the Meadow Viper Restrictions Ecological traits Score General restrictions Small population and/or range in Europe 1 Low survival and/or productivity rates Long generation times Declining population in Europe 2 Low genetic diversity Specialised and uncommon habitat requirements Narrow niche Critical association with another vulnerable species Subtotal 3 Barriers to dispersal (e.g. water, topography and man-made barriers) Colonisation restrictions Limited dispersal and/or colonisation ability Mainly distributed in fragmented habitats that limit dispersal 1 1 Subtotal 2 Total Adaptive Capacity Constraint score 5
Adaptive capacity constraints - Article 17 data Article 17 assessment category Unfavourable bad Unknown* Adaptive capacity constraint High Description High level of constraint on adaptive capacity (i.e. habitat limited in extent to which it can adapt to climate change) Unfavourable inadequate Medium Medium level of constraint on adaptive capacity (i.e. habitat partially limited in extent to which it can adapt to climate change) Favourable Low Low level of constraint on adaptive capacity (i.e. habitat able to adapt fairly easily to climate change)
Vulnerability categories Climate impact category Adaptive capacity constraint Low Moderate High Very high High High Very high Critical Extremely critical Medium Moderate High Very high Critical Low Low Moderate High Very high
Breeding birds Vulnerability B2/2070-2099 Category n % Extremely Critical 2 1% Critical 24 16% Very High 51 34% High 41 28% Moderate 22 15% Low 8 5%
Reptiles and amphibians Vulnerability B2/2050 A1F1/2050 Category n % n % Extremely Critical 0 0% 0 0% Critical 0 0% 0 0% Very High 1 4% 1 4% High 6 25% 9 38% Moderate 4 17% 2 8% Low 10 42% 9 38%
Butterflies Vulnerability B1/2050 A1F1/2050 B1/2080 A1F1/2080 Category n % n % n % n % Extremely Critical 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Critical 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 1 8% Very High 0 0% 1 8% 1 8% 1 8% High 2 15% 3 23% 3 23% 5 38% Moderate 5 38% 3 23% 3 23% 3 23% Low 6 46% 5 38% 3 23% 1 8%
Vascular plants Vulnerability B2/2050 A1F1/2050 B2/2080 A1F1/2080 Category n % n % n % n % Extremely Critical 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Critical 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Very High 0 0% 0 0% 1 4% 2 8% High 2 8% 2 8% 2 8% 10 38% Moderate 3 12% 8 31% 7 27% 9 35% Low 17 65% 13 50% 12 46% 5 19%
Exemplar Natura 2000 habitats 2050s 2080s Habitat type A1F1 B1 A1F1 B1 Western Taiga High High Very high Very high Bog woodland High Moderate Very high High Pannonic woods with Quercus petraea and Carpinus betulus Euro-Siberian steppic woods with Quercus spp. Illyrian Fagus sylvatica forests (Aremonio- Fagion) Acidophilous Picea forests of the montane to alpine levels (Vaccinio-Piceetea) Alpine Larix decidua and/or Pinus cembra forests Subalpine and montane Pinus uncinata forests Low Low Moderate Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Very high High Moderate Moderate Very high High Very high High Critical Very high
References and contact details Harley, M., Chambers, T., Hodgson, N., van Minnen, J. & Pooley, M. 2010. A methodology for assessing the vulnerability to climate change of habitats in the Natura 2000 network. European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change Technical Paper 2010/14, European Environment Agency. Sajwaj, T., Tucker, G., Harley, M. & de Soye, Y. 2009. Impacts of climate change and selected renewable energy infrastructures on EU biodiversity and the Natura 2000 network: Task 2a An assessment framework for climate change vulnerability: methodology and results. European Commission and International Union for Conservation of Nature, Brussels. Mike Harley: +44 (0) 870 190 6736 or mike.harley@aeat.co.uk Nikki Kent: +44 (0) 870 190 3858 or nikki.kent@aeat.co.uk