Fredericton, N.B. September 28, 2006 Natural Gas Update Northeast Power Coordinating Council General Meeting Stephen Leahy Northeast Gas Association
NGA Members Non-profit trade association Local gas utilities (LDCs) serving New England, New York, and New Jersey Several interstate pipeline companies LNG importer (Distrigas) and LNG trucking companies Over 250 associate member companies, from industry suppliers and contractors to electric grid operators www.northeastgas.org NY VT NH MA RI CT NJ ME
North American Gas Pipeline System Map: National Petroleum Council
Projected Demand Growth by Sector, Northeast U.S. Power generation remains the leading projected growth sector. New England Middle Atlantic 0.5 1 0.45 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.35 0.7 Quadrillion Btu 0.3 0.25 0.2 Residential Commercial Industrial Electric Gen. Quadrillion Btu 0.6 0.5 0.4 Residential Commercial Industrial Electric Gen. 0.15 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.05 0.1 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2006 Annual Energy Outlook, 1/06
Canadian Gas Exports to Northeast U.S. Canadian Exports to Northeast U.S., 1990-2005 1.2 1.0 Tcf 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: National Energy Board, Canada All new pipeline systems added in New York and New England since 1990 are linked to Canada (e.g., Iroquois, Empire, PNGTS, M&NE)
Storage Levels / Commodity Price Projection Today: 3.177 Tcf Last Year: 2.821 Tcf 9/20/06: $4.87 /MMBtu 9/20/05: $12.76 /MMBtu Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Projected U.S. Supply Additions, 2005-2010 Source: Strategic Energy & Economic Research, Inc.
Planned Northeast Pipeline Projects Prepared by NGA, 8-06, based on publicly available information. Project locations approximate. PNGTS, Recent Open Season National Fuel Gas, Empire Connector Project Tennessee, Northeast ConneXion NE Iroquois, MarketAccess Expansion M&NE, Phase IV Expansion Columbia, DTE Energy, KeySpan, Millennium VERMONT Tennessee, Atlantic Supply Expansion Tennessee, Essex Middlesex Project Duke/Algonquin, Cape Cod Lateral Williams, Leidy to Long Island Williams, Sentinel Expansion Project Tennessee, Northeast ConneXion NY/NJ Duke/KeySpan, Islander East Algonquin, Ramapo Expansion Iroquois, Brookhaven Lateral
Existing & Proposed LNG Import Terminals, Northeast Blue = In-service [Distrigas] Yellow = Approved by FERC Orange = Approved by Canadian regulators Green = Proposed 1 2 NEWFOUNDLAND QUEBEC ONTARIO QUEBEC 7 6 8 3 5 4 Proposed Terminals MARYLAND 16 15 13 14 12 9 11 Map source: U.S. FERC; Updated by NGA based on public information as of 9-06. Locations approximate. Not all pipeline systems shown. 10 1. Rabaska, Levis-Beaumont, QU: 0.5 Bcf/d (Gaz Métro, Gaz de France, Enbridge) 2. Gros Cacouna Energy, QU: 0.5 Bcf/d (TransCanada, Petro-Canada) 3. Canaport LNG, St. John, NB: 0.75 to 1 Bcf/d (Irving Oil, Repsol) 4. Bear Head LNG, Point Tupper, NS: 0.75 to 1 Bcf/d (Anadarko) 5. Maple LNG, Goldboro, NS: 1.0 to 2.0 Bcf/d (Keltic Petrochemicals, 4Gas, Suntera) 6. Downeast LNG, Robbinston, ME: 0.5 Bcf/d (Kestrel Energy Partners) 7. Quoddy LNG, Pleasant Point, ME: 0.5 Bcf/d (Quoddy Bay LLC) 8. BP Consulting LNG, near Calais, ME: (BP Consulting LLC) 9. Northeast Gateway Project, Off Cape Ann, MA: 0.4 Bcf/d (Excelerate Energy) 10. Neptune LNG, Off Cape Ann, MA: 0.4 Bcf/d (SUEZ Energy Resources) 11. AES Battery Rock, Outer Brewster Island, Boston Harbor: (AES Corp.) 12. Weaver s Cove LNG, Fall River, MA: 0.4 to 0.8 Bcf/d (Hess LNG) 13. KeySpan LNG, Providence, RI: 0.5 Bcf/d (KeySpan & BG LNG) 14. Broadwater Energy, offshore Long Island, NY: 1 Bcf/d (TransCanada and Shell US Gas & Power) 15. Safe Harbor Energy, off south shore, Long Island, NY: 1 Bcf/d (Atlantic Sea Island Group) 16. Crown Landing LNG, Logan Township, NJ: 1.2 Bcf/d (BP)
Canaport LNG Aerial View (August 31st) Courtesy of Repsol
Existing & Potential Eastern Canadian Supplies Quebec Potential exploration in the St. Lawrence region New Brunswick McCully natural gas field; planned development of small field by Corridor Resources Offshore Nova Scotia Current Production SOEP producing since 1999; 400-500 MMcf/d Offshore Newfoundland White Rose Field; estimate of 2.7 Tcf of gas Potential development within next decade Offshore Nova Scotia Future Potential Deep Panuke field; Projected in-service date of 2010
Gas Electric Interface Value of protocols ISOs and gas industry Regular communication between ISOs and pipelines / Distrigas; committees (EGOC) Winter and summer For the power sector, gas contract terms remain a key issue (firm vs. non-firm); gas system is designed to meet firm market commitments; no guarantees for non-firm arrangements Generators for most part not making investments in gas system infrastructure.
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