Vision California
Vision California will 1. Compile Regional and State-Wide Data 2. Develop Powerful Analytical Tools 3. Produce Scenarios and Metrics 4. Analyze the Benefits of HSR Investment
1. Compile Regional and State-Wide Data 29% - 26% 60% 53% - 65% - 60% 71% 29% - 49% 61% % % Population change, 2006-2035 Jobs change, 2006-2035 24% 40% 86% 102% 28% 47% 16% 27% 31% 41% 30% 40%
2. Develop Powerful Analytical Tools Rapid Fire Model Map-Based Tool
Map-Based Model Place Types Scenarios & Outputs VMT Travel Mode GHG Emissions Air Pollution Energy Use Water Use Infrastructure Cost Household Costs Health Impacts GIS Model
Place-Based Rapid Fire Model Rapid Fire Environmental Land Consumption Emissions Pollutant Emissions Building Energy & Water Consumption Transportation Vehicle Miles Traveled Gallons of Fuel Consumed Fuel Cost Emissions Fiscal Infrastructure Cost Household Costs for Utilities and Transportation
3. Produce Scenarios and Metrics Trend Blueprints
Scenario Concepts 1. Trend Business as usual base case 2. Blueprint Future Quilt of regional blueprints/plans 3. Ultimate Future Most Compact/Transit-Oriented
Environmental Greenhouse Gas Emissions Air Pollution Water and Energy Consumption Scenario Modeling Transportation Vehicle Miles Traveled Transit, Walk, Bike Mode share Vehicle Emissions Fiscal State and Regional Infrastructure Cost Household/Business Costs Social Housing Diversity & Affordability Access to Jobs and Services Public Health Impacts Cost of Living Household Costs
4. Analyze the Benefits of HSR Investment
Vision California Goals 1. Quantify the Relationship b/t HSR and Varying Statewide Land Use Patterns 2. Expand Collaboration b/t HSR and other Agencies and Stakeholders
Linkage to Regional Transit Systems
Prioritized Development Areas SCAG Compass Regional Vision Illustrative Transit Nodes MTC/ABAG Priority Development Areas, 2009 SANDAG Smart Growth Concept Areas
Land Use Impacts on HSR Ridership
Rapid Fire Model Preliminary Results
California Rapid Fire Scenarios Place-Based Policy Options Rapid Fire Trend Green A1 Business as Usual A2 B2 C2 Green Policy Only Mixed Growth/ Green Policy Smart Growth/ Green Policy Trend Mixed Smart Land Use Options
California Rapid Fire Scenarios Place-Based Policy Options Rapid Fire Trend Green A1 Business as Usual A2 B2 C2 Green Policy Only Mixed Growth/ Green Policy Smart Growth/ Green Policy Trend Mixed Smart Land Use Options
Oakland Uptown
Same
Stapleton
same
California Rapid Fire Scenarios Land Use Mix for Growth Increment (2005-2050) Urban Compact Standard 5% 25% 10% 35% 70% 55% Business As Usual Smart Growth/Green Policy
Housing Product Mix Growth Increment (2005-2050) 14% 16% 16% 54% Multifamily Attached Small Lot Large Lot 34% 30% 26% 10% Business As Usual Smart Growth/Green Policy
Housing Product Mix 2050 Total 24% Multifamily 29% 11% 20% 45% Attached Small Lot Large Lot 14% 23% 34% Business As Usual Smart Growth/Green Policy
Housing Choice Meeting Diverse Housing Needs 77% 17% 11% 30% 41% 26% 17% 28% 23% Singles living alone Other Households Married couples without children Married couples with children 1970 2005
Green Policy Package 2050 Polices Transportation Buildings Power Generation 3x Fleet Efficiency (54mpg) 50% Cleaner Fuels 80% More Energy Efficient 70% More Water Efficient 60% Renewable Power Portfolio
California 2050 GHG Emissions Getting to 80% Below 1990 400 CO 2 e MMT 350 145 Buildings Travel 300 250 200 150 109 259 118 101 100 50 0 108 130 77 1990 Trend 2050 BAU + Smart Growth 101 47 + Vehicle Efficiency 101 68 54 27 27 27 + Low Carbon Fuels + Bldg Efficiency + Renewable Power 80% Below 1990 Joe DiStefano October 2009
A1/A2 v C2 Land Consumed For New Growth to 2050 (mi 2 ) More land than Delaware and Rhode Island combined 5,533 3,800 square miles saved 1,760 Business As Usual Smart Growth
A1/A2 v C2 Infrastructure Cost for New Growth For New Growth to 2050 $24,000 Saved per New Housing Unit : $4.3 Billion/Year Dollars Billions $377.8 $194 Billion Saved* $183.3 Flickr: sl-engineer *Includes local roads, waste water and sanitary sewer, water supply, and dry utilities Business As Usual Smart Growth
A1/A2 v C2 Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Miles Per Household in 2050 11,500 Fewer Miles Per Household 28,433 16,909 Flickr: trash-photography Business As Usual Smart Growth
A1 v C2 Auto Fuel Consumed Cumulative to 2050 Equivalent to more than 4 years of oil imports to the US Gallons Billions 756.7 278 Billion Gallons Saved 478.5 Business As Usual Smart Growth
A1 v C2 Auto Fuel Cost Cost Per Household in 2050 $4,500 Annual Savings Per Household in 2050 $6,952 $2,494 Flickr: TheTruthAbout Business As Usual Smart Growth
A1 v C2 Building Energy Energy Use Per Household in 2050 30 million BTU Annual Savings Per Household in 2050 BTU Millions 62 33 Flickr: arbyreed Business As Usual Smart Growth
A1 v C2 Residential Water Use Cumulative to 2050 Water Savings the Equivalent 2/3 of Lake Tahoe Acre Feet Millions 327.9 77 Million Acre Feet Saved 250.4 Business As Usual Smart Growth
A1 v C2 Annual Household Costs Per Household Annual in 2050 More than $13,000 Savings Per Household in 2050 $ 29,200 Home Energy & Water Auto Fuel + Ownership $ 15,800 Flickr: Diablo_Solar Business As Usual Smart Growth
A1 v C2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Annual in 2050 Emissions offset by 106,000 square miles of trees in a year. A forest covering 2/3 of California. Passenger Vehicles Buildings www.exuberance.com 118 166 MMT CO 2 e Reduced/Year 130 54 New York Times 27 Business As Usual Smart Growth
Vision California