JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY Seminar on DATA COLLECTION SURVEY ON CROSS-BORDER MARITIME TRAFFIC IN SOUTH ASIA December 2015 PADECO-OCDI-JERI-OCG
Outline of the Survey Yuichiro Motomura Team Leader/Cross-border Transport Infrastructure Planner JICA Survey Team
Background (1/2) Significant economic growth in South Asia Combined GDP of the Region has reached a level comparable to ASEAN and will grow further. Low intra-regional trade ratio Intra-regional trade in the Region has been very low. JICA s contribution to regional connectivity JICA has been active in improving regional connectivity in ASEAN. Now is the time for JICVA to contribute to regional connectivity in South Asia. 3
Background (2/2) Long run demand for maritime traffic The current downturn in shipping 100 in 2004 300 industry may last 250 another year. In the long run demand for maritime traffic will grow substantially to fit the level of economic activities of the Region. 200 150 100 50 0 2004 2013 Import/export grows much faster than GDP, so as the needs for maritime transport. Import Export GDP 4
Objectives 1. To propose industry/supply-chain trend scenarios and logistics scenarios of major industries for the South Asia region for 2030. 2. To make recommendations on the direction and possibilities of JICA cooperation for ports and maritime transportation in South Asia. 5
Ports Surveyed Field survey coverage countries and ports Country 1 st Survey (Jul/Aug) 2 nd Survey (Sep/Oct) Secondary Source Only Bangladesh Chittagong, Mongla, Ports surrounding Dhaka (incl. Pangaon/ --- Matabari area India Narayanganj) Mundra/ Kandla, Mumbai/ JNPT, Cochin, Tuticorin, Paradip, Kolkata Pakistan Port Bin Qasim, Karachi Hazira, Mormugao, New Mangalore, Kattupalli/ Krishnapatnam, Visakhapatnam, Kolkata, Colachel/ Vizhinjam Pipavav, Dahej, Chennai/ Ennore/ Kakinada, Haldia Gwadar Sri Lanka Colombo, Hambantota, Trincomalee, Galle Colombo, Trincomalee, Galle 6
Survey Schedule Jul/Aug-15 Sep/Oct-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 First country visit Field survey Second country visit Field survey Regional seminar Interim presentation and discussion Third country visit Discussion on Draft Final Report Feb-16 Final Report 7
Main Features of the Survey To formulate and examine macroeconomic scenarios, industry and supply chain scenarios, and freight transport network scenarios for the Region To analyze the maritime transport in region-wide, and long term perspectives To apply advanced spatial economic model and maritime transport assignment model for quantitative analysis To propose both hard and soft projects which are highly desirable to further regional integration 8
Scenarios Examined Macroeconomic Scenario Supply Chain Scenario GDP/GRDP in the following cases: Base case Upside case Downside case Flow of goods in the Regional supply chain Textile/garment Oil/Oil-related Automobile Machinery Freight Transport Scenario Development of freight transport network by: Container cargo / Non-container cargo International shipping routes Land logistics Infrastructure Demand 9
Flow of Scenario Analysis Driver Cost Factor Customs Duties Non-tariff Barriers Labor Cost Formation/ Evolution of Supply Chain GDP: Gross Domestic Product GRDP: Gross Regional Domestic Product GSM: Geographical Simulation Model Revenue Potential Global Demand Macro Economy Sector GRDP Headline GRDP GSM Sector GRDP Utilization of model and data of IDE-JETRO Headline GRDP Headline GDP Headline GDP Freight Demand Container Bulk Container Assignment Model Container Bulk Vehicle Vehicle Port Port Infrastructure Demand Present Access Road Soft 2030 Assessment of shortage in infrastructure capacity Access Road Soft 10
Economic Impact of Port Improvement and NTB Reduction 11
Evaluation of Projects Projects to be identified in each country Project evaluation criteria: strategic importance, growth potential, hinterland growth potential, demand level, cost, ease in implementation, and importance to Japan. A short list of projects for potential Japan s assistance 12
Thank you! 13