The global energy system to 2052. What should universities do? Jorgen Randers Professor Emeritus Center for Climate Strategy BI Norwegian Business School J Randers 1 First UNI SET Clustering Event NTNU, Trondheim 25 th February, 2016
The Limits to Growth (LTG): Twelve scenarios for the 21st century, warning against growth beyond the carrying capacity of small planet Earth. J Randers 2
One sad future: Resource crisis (LTG Sc 1) 3: Industrial output 5: Nonrenewable resources 5 5 1 2 2: Food output 3 1 0 4 1: Population 1 2 3 2 1 5 2 5 3 4 4: Pollution level 3 4 4 1900 1950 2000 2050 Year 2100 Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004 J Randers 3
A better future: Sustainability (LTG Sc 9) 5 5: Nonrenewable resources 5 1 2 3 2: Food output 3: Industrial output 5 1 2 3 5 1: Population 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4 4 4: Pollution level 1900 1950 2000 2050 Year 2100 4 Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004 J Randers 4
2052 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years A forecast of global developments to 2052, predicting that global warming will exceed +2 deg C in mid-century See www.2052.info J Randers 5
World state of affairs 1970 to 2050 1.0 0.8 State of Affairs Population 0.6 CO2 emissions GDP 0.4 0.2 Temperature rise Consumption 0.0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Max values 9 Gp, 150 G$/yr, 50 GtCO2/yr, 150 G$/yr, 2.5 deg C Figure 9-1a: Past and future World - State of Affairs -1970 to 2050 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 13 Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 6
How such forecasts can help you 1. Make a forecast of global energy system to 2052, assuming no extra-ordinary action 2. Identify the problems that are likely to arise over the decades ahead 3. Develop solutions to these problems, both technical and social 4. Try to sell these extra-ordinary solutions to society J Randers 7
The drivers of installed energy capacity GLOBAL TEMPERATURE CO2 EMISSIONS ENERGY CAPACITY ENERGY USE PRODUCTION (GDP) POPULATION GDP PER PERSON J Randers 8
The five regions used in the 2052 forecast Region Population 2010 GDP 2010 GDP per person 2010 (billion people) (trillion $ pr year) US 0,3 13 41 China 1,3 10 7 OECD-less-US (1) 0,7 22 30 BRISE (2) 2,4 14 6 ROW (3) 2,1 8 4 Sum world 6,9 67 10 (1000 $ pr person-year) (1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc (2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 140 countries of the world Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012 J Randers 9
World population will peak in 2040 Gpersons 10 % / yr 5.0 8 Population ( scale) 4.0 6 3.0 4 Birth rate (scale ) 2.0 2 Death rate 1.0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 1 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0.0 Figure 4-1 Population World 1970 to 2050 Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012 J Randers 10
% / yr 5.0 World GDP growth will slow down G$ / yr 150 Gp 10.0 4.0 World GDP (scale ) 120 8.0 3.0 Long term growth rate in output per person aged 15 to 65 ( scale) Population aged 15 to 65 (scale ) 90 6.0 2.0 60 4.0 1.0 30 2.0 0.0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 g130605j 0 0.0 Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product World 1970 to 2050 Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Output per member of potential workforce Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012 J Randers 11
World energy use will peak in 2040 Gtoe / yr 20 toe / M$ 300 G$ / yr 300 16 12 Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale ) World energy use ( scale) 240 180 240 180 8 120 120 4 World GDP (scale ) 60 60 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure 5-1: Energy Use World 1970 to 2050 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 6 0 0 Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012 J Randers 12
World use of fossil fuels will peak around 2030 Gtoe / yr 6.5 5.2 Coal use 3.9 Oil use 2.6 1.3 Gas use Renewable energy use Nuclear use 0.0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure 5-2: Energy Uses World 1970 to 2052 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 8 Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012 J Randers 13
World CO 2 emissions will peak in 2030 GtCO2 / yr 50 tco2 / toe 5 Gtoe/yr 25 40 30 CO2 emissions Climate intensity ( scale) 4 20 = CO2 per unit of energy (scale ) 3 15 20 2 10 10 Energy use (scale ) 1 5 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 9 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 0 Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use World 1970 to 2050. Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012 J Randers 14
Temperature will pass +2 degrees C in 2052 ppm 500 deg C 2.5 m 1.5 400 300 CO2 in atmosphere ( scale) Temperature rise (scale ) 2.0 1.5 1.2 0.9 200 Sea level rise (scale ) 1.0 0.6 100 0.5 0.3 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 10 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0.0 0 Figure 5-4: Climate Change World 1970 to 2050 Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012 J Randers 15
Main conclusions from the 2052 forecast World population and economy will grow more slowly towards 2052 than most people expect - but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis Consumption will stagnate because society will have to spend ever more labour and capital on repair and adaptation The short-term nature of man - reflected in the short term focus of democracy and capitalism - is the root cause of this development J Randers 16
A much better future is possible 1. Solving the climate challenge is not impossibly costly 2. It requires a shift of 2 % of the world s labor and capital from dirty to clean sectors 3. This solution will resisted by the incumbent workers and owners in the dirty sectors 4. And by those who dislike higher taxes and more regulation 5. The challenge is to find climate policies that also provide a short term benefit to a majority of the voters that is increases well-being in the short term J Randers 17
What should be done? - Ideally 1. Further slow population growth Introduce 1-child policy first in rich world 2. Cut CO2 emissions first in the rich world Ban the use of coal, oil and gas from 2026 3. Reduce poverty in the poor world Give a climate-friendly energy system to the poor 4. Reduce the ecological footprint of the rich world Legislate more compulsory vacation 5. Temper national short termism Establish supra-national institutions 6. Reduce the focus on income growth Establish increased well-being as the new goal J Randers 18
There will be huge regional differences 40,000 35,000 After-tax income per person (in 2005 PPP $ per person-year) US 30,000 25,000 OECD-less-US 20,000 China 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 World average BRISE Rest of world 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012 J Randers 19
Energy use per person 1970 to 2050 10 Energy use per person (in toe / year) World 8 BRISE 6 China 4 OECD less US USA 2 ROW 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 20
CO 2 emissions 1970 to 2050 20,000 CO2 emissions (in MtoCO2 / year) 45,000 BRISE 16,000 36,000 China 12,000 27,000 OECD less US 8,000 18,000 USA 4,000 9,000 ROW 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 0 World (right hand scale) Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 21
What can universities do? 1. Clarify the situation by studying the crucial assumptions that form the basis of any forecast to 2050 - through multidisciplinary studies in a long-term perspective 2. Develop politically feasible solutions by identifying solutions that also provide a benefit to a majority of voters in the short term 3. Help save the world by accelerating the transformation of the global energy system which will be of crucial importance J Randers 22
What are the critical assumptions? 1. Average fertility will decline to 1,5 children per woman in 2050 2. The rate of growth of GDP per person will decline to zero when economy exceeds 50.000 USD/personyear (in PPP 2005 dollars) 3. The energy intensity (energy use per unit of GDP) will continue to decline at the traditional rate 4. The CO2 intensity (CO2 emissions per unit of energy used) will continue to decline at the traditional rate 5. Voters and the market will continue to be short term J Randers 23
Crude birth rate (%/yr) Crude birth-rate versus GDP per person 1970-2010 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 g140714ji The database for 2052 Reg Comparisons 10 Conclusion: Birth rate tends to fall below death rate when incomes exceed 25.000 $/p-yr Death rate when life expectancy is 80 years) 0 10 20 30 40 50 GDP per person (thousand 2005 PPP US$/person-year) USA OECD less USA China BRISE ROW WORLD Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 24
Growth rate in GDP per person (in % per year) J Randers 25
Energy per GDP (in tons of oil-equiv per mill $ of GDP) Note: GDP is measured in 2005 PPP US dollars per year J Randers 26
CO2 per energy (in tons of CO2e per ton of oil equiv) J Randers 27
Help society consider long-term effects J Randers 28
Local climate effects e.g. melting tundra MELTING TUNDRA, SAHKA, 2006 J Randers 29
Examples of important questions 1. Should we use gas in the transition to a renewable world? 2. How can one convince a majority to accept taxes on fossil energy? 3. How can we best give low-carbon technologies to the developing world? 4. Is there a role for CCS since it will be supported by the fossil industry and be needed after 2050 to suck CO2 out of the atmosphere? 5. How can one make energy efficiency more sexy than new nuclear capacity? J Randers 30
We need an extra-ordinary solution. Soon! jorgen.randers@bi.no www.2052.info J Randers 31