Perusahaan Gas Negara Presentation to the investors October 2010 update
Disclaimer: The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. In addition, such information contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect the Company s current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risk. No assurance can be given that further events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that the Company s assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected. 2
Indonesia: A Major Producer of Natural Gas The largest proven gas reserves in Asia Pacific Ahead of Australia, China and Malaysia (BP World Energy Report 2010) 3.71 1.32 53.06 21.49 24.14 7.96 7.76 26.68 6.18 6.39 6.30 6.31 Source: Director General of Oil and Gas Natural Gas: Proved reserves (BP World Energy Report 2010) 2009 share Trillion cubic metres 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 of total Indonesia 2.48 2.63 3.00 3.18 3.18 1.7% Australia 2.35 2.34 2.29 3.08 3.08 1.6% China 1.53 1.68 2.26 2.46 2.46 1.3% Malaysia 2.48 2.48 2.38 2.38 2.38 1.3% Total Asia Pacific 13.48 13.75 14.65 16.00 16.24 8.7% Total World 172.28 173.18 176.68 185.28 187.49 100.0% Experience domestic natural gas shortages Due to fast growing demand and limited natural gas infrastructure 3
Demand for Natural Gas Key Drivers No Subsidy of Fuel for the Industries Subsidies for industries revoked in 2005 Pricing and Efficiencies Significant price and efficiencies benefits by converting to natural gas, as well as environmental concerns Conversion of Power Plants Pent up demand from the conversion of existing dual fired power plants pending availibility of gas Demand from the industries Require natural gas to compete in the era of Free Trade Agreement. 4
Unmet Demand for Natural Gas Power Sector 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2009 2015 Source : PLN Primary Energy Unit Demand Supply Gap Ministry of Industry cited major gas shortage for industry Firm unmet demand from industry of 0.4 BSCFD PLN (state power company) gas demand was 1.8 BSCFD in 2009 for existing dual fired power plants growing to 2.1 BSCFD in 2015. Representing unmet demand of 0.8 BSCFD 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Additional demand of 0.1 BSCFD from IPP Industry Non Power Sector 500 2009 2015 Source : Ministry of Industry and PGN Fertilizers Petrochem Paper Metal Ceramics Others Total 5
Current Low Consumption to Drive Demand Low level of current consumption of natural gas and electricity Ensure the continuing growth of demand for natural gas 6
Opportunity : Price Advantages Lower gas price compares to other fuels Industrial Prices are set on B to B basis PGN Gas Price and HSD Price 40.00 35.00 30.00 HSD Unsubsidized Price (USD/MMBTU) PGN Average Selling Price (USD/MMBTU) Natural Gas LPG 3 kg (Subsidized) MFO LPG 12 kg 6.35 10.05 13.91 14.60 PGN Average Selling Price USD/MMBtu 25.00 20.00 15.00 MDF/IDO (Diesel) HSD (Solar) Premium 17.37 17.99 19.46 10.00 LPG 50 kg 18.35 5.00 0.00 Mar 05 Dec 05 Oct 06 Aug 07 Jun 08 Apr 09 Feb 10 Oct 10 LPG Bulk Kerosene 18.29 Note: Fuel price Pertamina as of 15 October 2010 Exchange rate IDR 9,000/USD 20.11 USD/MMBtu 7
New Pricing Scheme Cost of Gas Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Decree No. 19 Year 2009 Allows pricing for general users to be determined by the Companies General users are non subsidized industries and power plants Gas Selling Price Transport & Distribution Costs Internal Cost Pricing Considerations Demand and Supply Dynamics Affordability Reasonable Margin Intended to stimulate more supplies to meet the growing demands Margin/ Spread Implementation PGN has taken the effort to communicate and educate the end users market on the merit of new pricing flexibility Implement new pricing scheme with regionalized and differentiated pricing on nationwide basis starting from 1 April 2010 8
Growing operational performance 900 Transmission Volume 900 Distribution Volume 800 850 700 800 600 500 750 400 700 300 650 200 100 600 736 716 743 747 758 779 763 763 767 758 848 853 0 422 527 551 566 577 721 756 776 792 841 827 821 Volume (MMSCFD) Volume (MMSCFD) Deliver strong growth following completion of SSWJ 9
IDR billion Growing Revenues, Expanding EBITDA Revenue EBITDA and EBIT 20,000 18,000 20 1,624 16,000 34 14,000 15 1,228 1,255 12,000 1,519 10,000 8,000 6,000 1,208 16,380 13,319 12,244 11,275 4,000 7,594 2,000 IDR billion 10,000 52% 53% 9,000 50% 47% 8,000 7,000 9,303 7,139 6,000 5,000 6,375 4,000 7,676 3,000 5,910 4,094 2,000 4,657 3,082 1,000 56% 8,106 6,990 60% 40% 20% 2007* 2008 2009 9M09 9M10 2007* 2008 2009 9M09 9M10 0% Distribution Transmission Fiber Optic EBITDA EBIT EBITDA Margin *note: as restated 10
Financial Statements (9M 2010) 16,000 1,000 FX Gain/Loss 911 14,000 800 12,000 10,000 IDR billion 600 400 200 IDR billion 8,000 6,000 14,582 13,514 (200) 9M09 9M10 (196) 4,000 2,000 5,458 5,339 2,147 2,252 6,990 5,910 4,401 4,692 Exchange Rate 30 Sept 2009 USD 1 = IDR 9,681 & JPY 1 = IDR 107.79 Revenue Cost of Revenue 9M09 Operating Expense 9M10 Operating Income Net Income 30 Sept 2010 USD 1 = IDR 8,924 & JPY 1 = IDR 106.77 11
Our Sound Balance Sheet (IDR billion) Sept 30, 2009 Sept 30, 2010 % Current Assets 8,140 12,270 51 Non Current Assets 19,468 18,185 7 Total Assets 27,608 30,455 10 Current Liabilities 3,484 4,180 20 Non Current Liabilities 13,080 12,799 2 Minority Interest In Net Assets of a Subsidiary 1,024 1,177 15 Total Equity 10,020 12,299 23 Total Liabilities And Shareholders Equity 27,608 30,455 10 Key Ratios 2008 2009 9M10 Debt to Equity Ratio (x) 1.9 1.0 1.1 Return on Investment (ROI) 25% 32% 27% Return on Equity (ROE) 10% 113% 62% Net debt/ebitda (x) 1.6 0.6 0.4 Net debt/equity (x) 1.4 0.4 0.3 EBITDA/Interest expense (x) 11.7 16.7 29.9 12
DEBT COMPOSITION (as of Sept 30, 2010) Long-term debt amounting to USD 1.196 billion Mostly long dated/maturity loans from Developmental Banks USD 53.7% JPY 46.3% Float 44.8% Fixed 55.2% Effective Cost of Debt of Around 2.6% 13
Customers Profile As of September 30, 2010, sales volume of industrial customers was 804 MMSCFD or equal to 98% of PGN s sales 40.00% 37% 30.00% 20.00% 14% 10.00% 0.00% Power Plant Chemical 10% Basic Metal 9% 8% 6% 5% 5% Ceramic Food Glass Paper Fabricated Metal 3% 2% 1% 0.03% Textile Others Cement Wood 14
Our Business Model GAS SUPPLY Contracted for volume and prices Key Suppliers Under Upstream Authority / BPMigas PGN CUSTOMERS Contracted for volume Business tobusiness Prices Industrial Customers (Steel Millls, Petrochemical, Ceramics, Textile, Glass) Power Sectors (PLN, IPP) Commercial Customers (Hotels, Shopping Malls, Commercial buildings) Residential Customers Represented 98% of volume 15
Our Corporate Structure PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk SBU I SBU Transmisi (SSWJ) PT Transgasindo* (Grissik Duri and Grissik Singapura) PT PGAS Telekomunikasi Nusantara PT PGAS Solution Subsidiaries SBU II *) Transgasindo Shareholder Composition SBU III 60% 40% PGN Transasia 15% 15% 35% 35% Petronas Conoco Indonesia Singapore Petroleum Talisman Energy 16
Our Network & Facilities PLN Medan (80 MMSCFD) Duri Panaran Station, Batam KALIMANTAN Grissik Receiving Station Pagardewa Compressor St. Legend: Strategic Business Unit (SBU) I Strategic Business Unit (SBU) II Strategic Business Unit (SBU) III South Sumatera West Java Transmission Pipeline (SSWJ) (970 MMSCFD) Grissik Duri transmission pipeline (425 MMSCFD) Grissik Singapore transmission pipeline (364 MMSCFD) Pagardewa Station Terbanggi Besar St. Labuhan Maringgai St. Muara Bekasi Station 17
Our Sources of Gas Pertamina Medan DOH Rantau 44 BCF Medco E&P Lematang Lematang Block K A L I M A N T A N PSC Grissik Corridor Block 2581 BCF Grissik Medco E&P Indonesia South & Central Sumatra Block 14 BCF Pertamina Sumatera Selatan DOH Sumsel, Merbau Field, Pagardewa, Prabumenang, Tasim, Musi Barat 1006 BCF Pertamina JBB DOH Cirebon 338 BCF *) @ 1000 BTU/SCF Indonesia Pertamina TAC Ellipse Jatirarangon Field 41 BCF Pertamina Cirebon DOH Cirebon 15 BCF Kodeco West Madura PSC 52 BCF Lapindo Brantas Wunut Field 136 BCF Husky Oil BD Field 146 BCF Maleo Field 243 BCF 18
Strategy to Fulfill Demand Obtain access to new gas supplies Actively seeking new gas supplies, starting from the ones located in the proximity of existing infrastructure Seek to obtain more allocation from the imposed domestic market obligations to new productions and contracts, but will require new infrastructure to be built Develop existing and build new infrastructure Expand existing distribution and transmission capacity Plan for inter mode gas transportation such as CNG and LNG Aim for non conventional sources Plan and anticipate the non conventional sources such as Coal Bed Methane 19
Recent Developments Event 12 October 2010 Nusantara Regas signed HoA LNGSPA and HoA GSA Detail of Event Nusantara Regas signed Head of Agreement on LNG Sales and Purchase Agreement (HoA LNGSPA) with Total E&P Indonesie, Inpex Corporation, and Pertamina to supply LNG Receiving Terminal in West Java from Mahakam Block, East Kalimantan. The supplies will up to 11.75 million tons for 11 years with delivery point at Bontang. Nusantara Regas signed Head of Agreement on Gas Sales Agreement (HoA GSA) with PLN to supply PLN Muara Karang and PLN Tanjung Priok power plants. 20
Plan for New LNG Infrastructure To Build the first 2 LNG Receiving Terminals Arun Mahakam Block Tangguh Donggi Senoro (planned) Masela Existing LNG Liquefaction Plant (planned) Existing transmission pipelines Planned LNG Liquefaction Plant Planned LNG Receiving Terminal Source: LNGpedia 21
Floating LNG Terminals Northeast Gateway Teesside Dubai LNG Ship Golar Spirit converted into LNG Regas Terminal Source: LNGpedia Gulf Gateway Livorno Kuwait Medan Pecem W. Java Operational Under Development Guanabara Bay Mossel Bay Bahía Blanca 22
Floating LNG Terminal Overview 23
LNG Receiving Terminals WEST JAVA NORTH SUMATRA Location Jakarta Bay Belawan, Medan Capacity (MTPA) 1.5 3 MTPA 1.5 MTPA Customers Power plants, industry Potential Supply Bontang and others Domestic and international sources Owner PGN (40%) Pertamina (60%) PGN Scope FSRU, jetty, subsea and overland pipelines 24
West Java FSRU Recent Developments Cooperation aspects: PLN pulled out of consortium citing focus on core business JV between PGN and Pertamina signed Technical aspects: JV appointed WorleyParsons Indonesia as Project Management Consultant Tender for EIA Consultant in evaluation process Commercial aspects: LNG SPA being negotiated JV preparing key terms of GSPA with PLN 25
North Sumatera FSRU Recent Developments Legal/Coordination: Close coordination with Regional Government of North Sumatera and Belawan Port Authority Technical aspects: LAPI ITB has been awarded as EIA consultant Foster Wheeler has been awarded as Project Management Consultant Commercial aspects: MoU with PLN as gas offtaker signed Initial discussion with BP Tangguh and BP Migas on LNG supply 26
West Java Distribution Expansion 460 km West Java Distribution Expansion Project Palembang 460 km expansion of Jakarta, Bekasi, Cikampek, Bogor and Banten distribution system Lampung Bekasi Karawang System capacity increased by 85% in West Java 50% nationwide Banten Bogor Cirebon Gas supply from South Sumatra Scheduled for completion in 2011 Project funded by World Bank and PGN 27
Recently Issued Regulations Government Regulation No. 55/2009 Upstream has a mandate to meet domestic demand by allocating 25% of natural gas production Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Decree No. 19/2009 Set the structure of natural gas trading, transmission and distribution business and licensing Provides special rights and licensing for dedicated downstream Set pricing mechanism for piped natural gas: o o o Residential regulated by BPH Migas Special users determined by Minister of Energy General users determined by the companies Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Decree No. 3/2010 Upstream has a mandate to serve domestic demand by 25% of natural gas production Domestic gas utilization priorities for national oil and gas production, fertilizer, electricity and industrial uses Exemption for existing Gas Sales & Purchase Agreements, Heads of Agreement, Memoranda of Understanding or negotiations in progress 28
Guidance For 2010 Gas Flow Projections Transmission: flat Distribution: 800 900 MMSCFD Capital Expenditure Commitment in 2010: USD 200-250 million 29
THANK YOU Contact: Investor Relations PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk Jl. K H Zainul Arifin No. 20, Jakarta 11140, Indonesia Ph: 62 21 6334838 Fax: 62 21 6331632 http://www.pgn.co.id 30