CAMBODIA FOOD PRICE AND WAGE BULLETIN RBwtiþb½Rt témøgahar nigr)ak; kqñülenakm<úca May 211, Issue 27 HIGHLIGHTS Food purchasing power of households slightly decreased in rural areas, but increased in urban areas on a month on month basis. On a year on year basis, food purchasing power decreased in both rural and urban areas as the increase in rice prices outweighed the increase in unskilled wage rates. Retail price of lowest quality rice in rural areas decreased by 3.1% month on month but increased by 7.6% year on year; in urban areas rice prices increased by 1.6% month on month and 16.2% year on year. Wholesale price of mixed rice increased by 5.8% month on month rice, benchmarks for Asia, decreased by 1.% and increased by 4.% month on month, respectively; on a year on year basis, both prices increased by over 3%. and 12.7% year on year. Export price of Thai and Vietnamese white FAO (global) Food Price Index decreased by 1% month on month, but was 37% higher than in May 21. FAO (global) All Rice Price Index was stable in May 211 but increased by 22.5% year on year. Overview This Bulletin monitors the price of food commodities and wage rates of unskilled labour on a monthly basis. It aims to detect changes and identify trends in the food purchasing power of vulnerable households. In addition to secondary analysiss of publically available data, WFP collects and analyzes the retail price of key food commodities and unskilled wage data from 1 urban and 1 rural markets (Appendix 1). International Food and Rice prices FAO Food Price Index 1, measuring the international price level of a basket of key food commodities, averaged 232 points in May 211, decreasing by 1% month on month but 37% higher than May 21 (Figure 1) ). Figure 1: FAO Food Price Index and Rice Price Index Index 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Jan 7 Apr 7 Jul 7 Oct 7 Jan 8 Apr 8 Jul 8 Oct 8 Jan 9 Apr 9 Jul 9 Oct 9 Food Price Index Rice Price Index Jan 1 Apr 1 Jul 1 Oct 1 Apr 11 Source: FAO, http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/ slight decline in the index was caused by declines in international prices of cereals and sugar, which outweighed the increase in meat and dairy prices. Oil prices were stable. International rice prices were stable in May 2111 as the FAO Rice Price Index averaged 245 points, seeing no change from April 211. However, the index was 22.5% higher than in May 21. Regional Rice Wholesale Price In May 211, the f.o.b. prices 2 of Thai A1 Super white rice (1% broken) and Vietnamese white rice (25% broken), two benchmark prices for Asia, were 419 USD/mt and 438 USD/mt, respectively. Thai A1 Super white rice price decreased by 1.% month on month, but increased by 3.9% year on year. Vietnamese 25% white rice price increased by 4.% month on 2). Prices month and increased by 31.9% year on year (Figure are significantly higher than in 21 as the dip in prices stemming from sluggish international demand in mid 21 was not seen in 211. Figure 2: Wholesale price of Thai and Vietnamese white rice USD/metric tonne 1, 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Jan 7 Apr 7 Jul 7 Oct 7 Cambodia mixed rice Jan 8 Apr 8 Jul 8 Oct 8 Jan 9 Apr 9 Jul 9 Oct 9 Jan 1 Apr 1 Vietnamese 25% Jul 1 Oct 1 Apr 11 Thai A1 Super Source: FAO, http://www..fao.org/es/esc/prices/pricesservlet.jsp?lang=en 1 FAO Food Price Index consists of the average of commodity group price indices (i.e. meat, dairy, cereals, oils/fats, and sugar) weighted with the average export shares of each of the groups for 22 24. 2 Free on board (f.o.b.) price includes all charges up to the placing of goods on board a ship at the port of departure specified by the buyer.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) general Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the cost of a consumption basket composed of 259 items. Each item is weighted based on their importance in an average household s expenditure 3. general CPI increased by 1.1% month onmonth. inflation rate, as measured by the year on year increase in the consumer price index 4, was 5.2% in April. Food Price Index (FPI) measures the cost of the food items in the general CPI s consumption basket. Food items make up 44.5% of the total consumption basket. food price inflation, at 5.7% year on year, was slightly higher than overall inflation, but stable on a month on month basis (Figure 3). Although the general and food price levels have been relatively stable in the past 12 months, food prices have increased almost twice as much as non food prices since 27. In April 211 5, FPI increased by 58.3% since January 27, while the non food component of the CPI basket increased by 3.1% during the same period. Figure 3: Relative change in general consumer prices, food prices and non food prices (base = Oct Dec 26) Index (1 = Oct Dec 26) 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 Jan 7 Apr 7 Jul 7 Oct 7 Jan 8 Apr 8 Jul 8 Oct 8 Jan 9 Apr 9 Jul 9 Oct 9 Jan 1 Apr 1 Jul 1 Oct 1 Apr 11 Source: National Institute of Statistics general food non food Local Rice Wholesale Prices Price reports from the Agricultural Marketing Office of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries show that in May 211 the average wholesale price of mixed rice 6 in Cambodia increased by 5.8% month on month, seeing a sharp increase for the second consecutive month (Figure 4). Prices in May 211 were 12.7% above prices in May 21, although prices in January March 211 were below prices in January March 21. Immediately after the end of the main wet season rice harvest in January 211, the successful rice harvest pushed rice prices below the previous year s level, as the 21 11 wet season rice harvest was 9.4% higher than the previous year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. Figure 4: Wholesale price of mixed rice 7, 26 11 Riel/kg 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Source: Cambodia Agricultural Market Information Service, MAFF http://www.agriculturalmarketinformation.org.kh However, in 211, rice prices started to increase 2 3 months earlier than in 21 and prices in May were significantly higher compared to 12 months ago. Several factors could be contributing to this trend. From the supply side, the rapid increase in gasoline and diesel prices have most likely put upward pressure on prices as transportation costs are higher. Both gasoline and diesel prices have increased for the fifth consecutive month and have increased by 16.2% and 24.9% year on year, respectively (Figure 5). From the demand side, it is likely that stronger international demand for Thai and Vietnamese rice compared to 21 has put upward pressure on the price of Cambodian rice due to a higher outflow of paddy to Thailand and Vietnam. Figure 5: Wholesale price of mixed rice and gasoline prices USD/metric tonne 6 5 4 3 2 1 Jan 7 May 7 Sep 7 Jan 8 May 8 Sep 8 Jan 9 May 9 Sep 9 Jan 1 May 1 Sep 1 May 11 Cambodia mixed rice Gasoline price index Source: Cambodia Agricultural Market Information Service, MAFF; National Institute of Statistics Local Food Commodity Retail Prices retail price of the following food commodities are collected from 1 urban and 1 rural markets by WFP field monitors (Appendix 1): rice, smoked fish, beef, pork and vegetable oil. In May 211, the average retail price of the lowest quality rice 8 in rural areas and urban areas was 1,676 riel/kg and 1,782 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 27 28 29 21 211 Index (1 = Oct Dec 26) 3 Relative item expenditure weights are derived from the 24 Cambodia Socio Economic Survey and adjusted to October December 26 price levels. 4 CPI is collected and reported by the National Institute of Statistics (NIS). 5 CPI data for May 211 was not available at the time of publication. 6 Mixed rice is considered a low quality rice. 7 Wholesale rice prices are collected from the provincial center markets of the following provinces: Kampong Chhnang, Kampong Cham, Takeo, Siem Reap, Prey Veng, Phnom Penh, Kampot, Battambang, Banteay Meanchey. 8 Mixed rice, IR rice and Banla Pdao rice
riel/kg, respectively. In rural areas, retail rice prices decreased by 3.1% month on month but increased by 7.6% year on year. In urban areas, retail rice prices increased by 1.6% month onmonth and 16.2% year on year (Figure 6). In rural areas the retail price of rice decreased in May, after having increased in March and April. different price trends in rural areas could be because the transmission of regional prices is less than in urban areas and also because transportation costs are not as heavily factored into the price compared to urban areas. In May, the average wage of unskilled labour (agricultural and non agricultural activities) in rural areas was 11,3 riel/day, having decreased by 3.8% month on month but increased by 1.1% year on year. In urban areas, unskilled wages in May 211 increased by 4.% month on month to 12,533 riel/day, and was 1.6% above May 21 (Figure 7). Figure 7(a)(b): Daily wage of unskilled labour (a) Rural areas 14, 12, Figure 6(a)(b): Average price of lowest quality rice, 27 11 (a) Rural areas 3, 2,5 Riel/day 1, 8, 6, 4, 21 211 Riel/kg 2, 1,5 1, 5 27 28 29 21 211 2, (b) Urban areas 14, (b) Urban areas 2,5 2, Riel/day 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 21 211 Riel/kg 1,5 1, 5 Source: WFP Prices of other food commodities in each of the 1 rural and 1 urban markets are presented in Appendix 2. It is noteworthy that in May 211, vegetable oil retail prices increased by over 4% year on year in both rural and urban areas. increase is likely caused by increase in fuel prices as much of the vegetable oil in Cambodia is imported from Thailand and Vietnam. Food Purchasing Power of Vulnerable Households daily wages of unskilled workers engaged in rice and nonrice farming and construction work are monitored by WFP field monitors on a monthly basis. 27 28 29 21 211 2, Source: WFP terms of trade (ToT) is used to assess household food purchasing power using the ratio of the daily wage rates of unskilled laborers and the retail price of lowest quality rice in the market. This gives an indication of the amount of rice that an unskilled wage labourer can purchase with his/her daily wage. In rural areas, the ToT for unskilled labour and lowest quality rice, at 6.74 kg/day, slightly decreased by.7% month onmonth, as the decrease in rice prices was outweighed by the decrease in wages (Figure 8). In urban areas, the ToT increased by 2.4% month on month to 7.3 kg/day, as the increase in unskilled wage rates outweighed the increase in rice prices. On a year on year basis, the ToT for unskilled labour and lowest quality rice decreased by 6.1% and 12.5% for rural and urban areas, respectively, as the increase in rice prices outweighed the increase in unskilled wage rates.
Figure 8(a)(b): Terms of Trade of unskilled labour and rice (a) Rural areas (b) Urban areas 9. 9. 8. kg of rice per daily wage 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 21 211 kg of rice per daily wage 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 21 211 1.. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Source: WFP Dec Appendix 1: Sentinel Surveillancee Market Sites Contact United Nations World Food Programme #25, Street 63, P.O. Box 937 Phnom Penh, Kingdom of Cambodia Telephone: (23) 21 943, (23) 212 137, (23) 212 138, Fax: (23) 218 749 For comments or queries, please contact: Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping Unit Mr. John Jeong (John.Jeong@wfp.org), Mr. Yav Long (Yav.Long@wfp.org), Mr. Kurt Burja (Kurt.Burja@wfp.org) WFP VAM: http://www.wfp.org/food security
Appendix 2(a)(b): Price of food commodities in rural and urban markets (a) Rural markets
(b) Urban markets