Food Security Update

Food Security Update 2017/2018 Agricultural Season Issue 01 Season: 2017-2018 March 2018 Highlights Hot and dry conditions starting from late December 2017 through much of January 2018, persisted in central and southern parts of the Region. From late January through to mid-february, heavy and persistent rains received in central and eastern parts of the Region Preliminary assessment of the impact of rainfall performance on crops shows that crops that had reached permanent wilting point unlikely to benefit from the recent good rains while crops that were just moisture stressed likely to recover. Erratic performance of the rainfall season likely to reduce the 2017/18 summer agricultural production in the Region, with negative consequences on food security for many households Regional Summary The hot and dry conditions that started in late December 2017 in central and southern parts of the Region persisted in central areas throughout much of January (Figure 1). This caused moisture stress and wilting of crops in many areas of Botswana, south-western Madagascar, southern Malawi, southern and central Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. For a period spanning close to 5 weeks, little to no rainfall was received in many of these areas. The dry spell was accompanied by above-normal temperatures, which increased the rate of evapotranspiration, loss of moisture from the soil and crops, exacerbating moisture stress. In addition, the high temperatures contributed to heat stress which has a negative impact on crop yields. Figure 1. Rainfall for 28 Dec 27 Jan 2018 as percent of average rainfall Since late January through to mid-february. Heavy and persistent rains have been received in central and eastern parts of the region, including northern Botswana, central and southern Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Over an approximately 3-week period, some of these areas have received more than 4 times their normal rainfall (Figure 2). Areas in south-western Madagascar and in southern Malawi that had earlier experienced dry conditions also received nearnormal rains during this period. Above normal rains were also received during this time in Lesotho and many parts of South Africa. In contrast, below average rainfall was received in the eastern half of Tanzania, though the bimodal parts usually receive low rains during this period. Northern Mozambique and western Namibia also received below average rains during this time. Figure 2. Rainfall for 1 Oct 2017 to 19 Feb 2018 as percentage of average rainfall for the pg. 1

The net result of the wet conditions on seasonal rainfall totals is that in much of the eastern half of the region, rainfall is now near normal to above normal. Northern Mozambique however, which was subjected to heavy rains due to tropical systems earlier in the season, still shows well above average seasonal rainfall totals. The February rains changed the seasonal rainfall totals in southern Zambia, much of Zimbabwe, and parts of central Mozambique from below normal to near normal or above normal in some cases. Despite the recent good rains across the region, the rainfall was insufficient to cover deficits in Botswana, Namibia and southern Madagascar. Overall, the impact of the rainfall performance is that crops that had reached permanent wilting point will not benefit from the recent and forecast rains. Crops that were moisture stressed but not permanently wilted may recover, though some yield potential may have been lost due to the dry conditions. The rains received since late January across large parts of the region will help in recovery of pasture and water supply for livestock. Good rains were received in the northern half of the region, promoting good crop conditions. Introduction Rainfall is the primary source of water that supports and sustain lives and livelihoods in the SADC Region. The performance of the rainfall, therefore, is a crucial determinant of livelihoods outcomes in the Region, particularly food security that is predominantly and directly dependent on rain-fed agriculture for the majority of SADC countries. Agriculture plays such a pivotal and important role as a source of food, employment, raw materials and export earnings for most SADC Member States. A poor rainfall season denotes a poor agricultural season which in turn constraint the broader economic performance and shocks the livelihoods of many people, particular the majority who are poor and dependent on agriculture. These update summaries the current rainfall performance in 13 SADC Member States as presented at the SADC-Regional Vulnerability Assessment and Analysis Programme Technical and Steering Committee meetings held in South Africa in February 2018. The meeting is one of the strategic meetings by the Committee under the SADC-RVAA Programme. Angola Except for northern Uíge, the rainy season began a little late. In the coastal and southern zone, the rainfall started late or was yet to start by end of January 2018.The rainfall total amounts received in Angola by end of January was normal to below normal in many parts of the country. The entire coastal zone and the south were far below their long-term average. The area planted to summer crops increased to about 5.2million hectares in 2017/18 from about 4million hectares in 2016/17. Since the country normally receives high rainfall amounts. Although the current rainfall is lower compared to average, it is unlikely to adversely affect crop conditions for most parts of the country except along the coast and the southern fringes of the country. Fall Armyworm was reported in many parts of the country. While this is concerning, a clearer picture of the impact of the pest is expected to emerge following scheduled assessments in March 2018. The decreased rainfall resulted in reduced grazing but it remains adequate for livestock. Normal livestock diseases incidences were reported in all parts of Angola and some livestock death occurred but none of these were out of the norm and out of control. Botswana Botswana received poor rainfall in most areas, with few exceptions in some parts of Central and Kgalagadi Districts where high amounts of rainfall were received. November 2017 was characterized by sporadic rainfall throughout the country, with poor rainfall distribution both in space and time. In addition, the country experienced dry spells in December 2017 and January 2018 due to an upper level high pressure cell which suppressed convective developments. These led to reduction in area planted from 56, 000 ha by 13, 445 farmers to 42, 555 ha by 864 farmers at the end of January 2018 compared to the same period in previous planting period. The hot dry pg. 2

conditions caused moisture stress that resulted in wilting of some crops. Some crops in Ngwaketse areas however showed some resilience. The Strategic Grain Reserve stock levels were recorded at 30,000tons of sorghum, zero (0) tons of Maize and 2,000tons of cowpeas as at 31 January 2018. The Country is in dire need to replenish the maize commodity as the maize-stock level falls far below the recommended threshold. In the livestock sub sector, the grazing conditions were generally poor reflecting the poor rainfall experienced during October to December 2017; farmers have therefore, been encouraged to supplement livestock feeds to minimize livestock mortalities. DRC Despite a marginal late start in a few areas, DRC s 2017/18 rainfall season started normally for most of the country and was even early in a few parts. Above normal rainfall was received in the first half of the season but most the country received 50 and 90 percent of their normal rainfall between 1 January and 19 February 2018. Despite the dry spell, DRC had received predominantly above normal rainfall by 19 February 2018. Resultantly, major crops (cassava, maize, rice and plantain), grazing and livestock were in good condition. Dam levels and overall water supply was normal. However, poor pastures in the southeastern parts of the country were reported to be causing a decrease in daily milk production from 4 to 2litres/cow. The agro pastoral sector of the DRC has suffered the deep socio-economic crisis experienced by the country because of the on-going war. Lesotho Rainfall performance in the country has been characterized by normal and above normal rainfall totals in parts of southern areas and the highlands while the rest of the country received below normal rainfall. Hotter than normal weather conditions were experienced over most places and caused moisture stress at the beginning of the rainfall season. November experienced very poor rainfall accumulation but there was snow in parts of the highlands which damaged some crops. December rains were above normal but came late for farmers who had not yet planted or needed to replant. The country experienced a mid-season dry spell for the greater part of January and early part of February 2018. This was followed by a wet spell in all parts of the country. As a result of the poor rainfall as well as an unseasonal frost incident, the general condition of crops and vegetation was poor and below average for the period. The condition of pastures was recovering owing to recent good rains but the outlook remains poor. Outbreak of black-quarter, rabies and anthrax were reported during the season, especially in the Northern Lowlands. Mozambique Low rainfall was received in southern parts of the country since the beginning of the season, with particularly low rainfall received in the southern and central parts of the country in January 2018. This led to crop failure and poor crop condition in southern areas, while areas in the central parts of the country received a moderate fraction of the rainfall they required for crop growth. In contrast, the northern parts of the country experienced high rainfall, resulting in many areas showing good crop condition. However, the heavy rainfall in some northern districts led to a loss of 5,202ha of cropped area, in particular of land planted to maize, cassava, groundnuts, and beans. More than 14,000 smallholder farmers were negatively affected by the heavy rains. Fall armyworm was reported in all provinces of the country, however the affected areas and impact on crop production is yet to be estimated. Pasture and water for livestock is available, and no significant livestock diseases were reported. Madagascar High rainfall was received in the northern, eastern and central parts of the country between October and January. In contrast south-western areas experienced well below average rainfall, accompanied by high temperatures. The dry, hot conditions in the south-west negatively affected crop production. The passage of Cyclone Ava, and the presence of tropical rainfall systems strongly impacted the eastern part of the country; causing fatalities, displacement of populations, and damage to infrastructure and flooding of thousands of hectares planted to rice. Fall Armyworm infestations were reported, and are expected to negatively affect maize production in the affected areas. Malawi pg. 3

The 2017/18 summer season started earlier than normal in most parts of the Malawi. Despite the early start and good rainfall performance in November which was conducive for crop establishment, dry conditions were experienced over most areas in southern and central Malawi from mid-december 2017 to mid-january 2018. The northern part of Malawi received normal to above normal rainfall during the period. In general, the rainfall distribution affected establishment of the late planted crop and growth of the early planted crop. The situation was further compounded by the persistent Fall Armyworm, which affected 26% of the 1,468,545ha of land planted for Maize by end January 2018. The prediction is for normal to above rains for the remainder for the season, however the potential yield for most of the maize crop and other summer crops are likely be lower than average, particularly in Southern Malawi. Namibia By late November 2017, little to no rainfall was experienced in most parts of the country, with only few places in the central north and north-eastern parts of the country having received sporadic below average rainfall. The poor rainfall performance continued up until mid-january 2018. Early February, normal to above normal rains were received still with few sporadic showers coupled with dry spells. The Western and Southern Namibia is still experiencing extended drought though there are still good prospects of a good harvest if the rainfall pattern received from early February becomes consistent. In terms of crop production, normal harvest might be realized though signs show a lower harvest than previous season (likely to see average to below average harvest for 2017/18). With late rains that delayed the planting in most of the areas of the country, most farmers had to re-plant, as what was planted in November to December did not geminate properly. About 25% of 1776 hectares of Maize is planted under green schemes. Due to prolonged drought in the Kunene, Erongo, Hardap and Kharas regions, loss of livestock has been reported. South Africa In South Africa, the planting season started in October 2017. Between October and -December 2017, the country experienced normal to below normal rainfall in most parts of the country, with a few patches (coastal areas, Gauteng, Limpopo) receiving above normal rainfall in November 2017. Between January-March 2018, most parts of the country received below normal rainfall. Drought conditions have been reported in Eastern, Western and Northern Cape provinces. The estimated area planted to maize for the season decreased by 12.1% to of 2.3 million ha compared to that of last season but remains close to that for the recent past five years. A reduction in yield compared to last season s bomber crop is also expected in all summer crops including maize, soybeans, sunflower, sorghum, and dry beans. The Fall Armyworm infestation has been detected in some provinces, but its impact has not been established yet. Water use restrictions continue in several provinces as dam levels remain precariously low. Despite the production challenges experienced to date production of cereals in South Africa is expected to be close to their recent past 5year average. Furthermore, the country is sitting on over 4 million MT of maize stocks that can be available for other Member States should the need arise. Swaziland There was general delayed onset of rainfall season in Swaziland that was exacerbated by heat waves and severe dry spells experienced in the first three weeks of January 2018. Despite the poor rainfall season, the area planted to main crops (maize, sweet potato, pumpkins) increased from 69,930 ha last summer season to about 73,690 ha in the current season. Fall Armyworm outbreaks have been reported in some parts of the country and is a major concern to crop production in the country. The pre-harvest assessment scheduled for March 2018 will shade more light on the season s crop. By mid-february, rangelands were in a fair to poor condition in the Lowveld and were in a good condition in the Highveld due to good rainfall that has been received the later part of the rainfall season. Occasional cases of lumpy skin disease were also recorded in the country, but the situation was under control. Tanzania With the exception of isolated places in the North eastern region Tanzania has experienced normal to above normal rains in the 2017/18 rainfall season in both the unimodal and bimodal rainfall regions of the country. Consequently, no significant changes in area planted in the 2017/18 growing season compared to the previous one were observed and crops were in a good condition. The rainfall forecast for March, April and April for the pg. 4

Vuli, Msimu and Masika rains is normal to above normal give a positive crop production outlook for Tanzania. However, a total of 2,077 Ha of field crops were reportedly affected by outbreaks of Fall Armyworm in 10 Regions, covering 28 districts as of January 2018. Various control measures were being applied, including application of various insecticides. There were concerns that the pests could spread rapidly to other areas where they have not been encountered before, which presents possible management challenges. Livestock conditions were normal in most parts of the country, with adequate availability of pastures for livestock and normal levels of water availability. Not major livestock diseases were reported throughout the country. Zambia Prolonged dry spells accompanied by high temperatures in January and early February have negatively affected the cropping season in Zambia. In addition, a high incidence of the Fall Armyworm (FAW) across the country has exacerbated the problem. The combined impact of both the prolonged dry spells and the FAW incidence is that 22% of the cropped land under maize, especially smallholder farmer produced, has been negatively affected. Smallholder farmers crop on 1.4 million hectares and their production accounts for 86% of the maize in Zambia. The most affected provinces include Central, Eastern, Lusaka, Southern and Western. In these areas, the condition of the maize and rice crop is generally poor. Crops such as cotton, soya beans, sorghum and sunflower were however, less affected by the dry spells. Maize crop that was planted early suffered permanent wilting and has no chance of crop recovering. The average crop loss is estimated at between 30 and 50 percent with some districts reporting even higher losses. Since most affected areas are high crop producers, overall production of many major crops in Zambia is likely to reduce. Livestock condition is moderate to good with no serious impact of dry spell. This due to the fact that pasture sprouted with the initial November,2017 rains Zimbabwe The first effective rains were received in the second half of October 2018 in most Zimbabwe. This was followed by a hot and dry spell that lasted for 3-4 weeks. The next wet spell was not until 7 November and this marking the true start of the 2017/18 rainfall season for most parts of the country. Thus the rainfall season was late by between 10 to 20 days in Zimbabwe compared to normal. There after the rainfall season was characterised by hot and dry weather conditions for the period leading up to early February 2018, when the rainfall season improved significantly. By 24 January 2018 most of the country had received below normal rainfall. Consequently, the area planted to all major crops below their recent past five averages Germination was largely poor germination and crop establishment difficult. As at 31 January 2018, the area planted to maize, sorghum and millet this summer cropping season was 22%, 35% and 29% lower than it was at the same time last season. About 6% of the area planted to maize, the main staple crop for Zimbabweans, was completely write-off by 31 January 2018; the impact was greatest on the early planted crop. The late planted crop which was mostly in early vegetative growth stages at the end of January 2018, was in a fair to good condition. Army worm was reported in all provinces of the country, but the impact of the pest is not yet clear. Control measures being applied are having mixed results due to variance in the knowledge on effective methods to control the worm among farmers as well as access to appropriate pesticides. Grazing was reported to be in a fair to good condition in most parts of the country; with good conditions being more dominant in the northern half of the country. Water sources for agriculture and domestic uses were below normal levels by end of January 2018. This situation was worse in the southern provinces that normal receive low rainfall. As a result, cattle condition also ranges from fair to good following the pattern in the condition of grazing land. Small stock such as goats were, however, in a good condition. The season has witnessed an unusual increase pg. 5

in cattle death as result of Theileriosis (January Disease). Foot and Mouth Disease outbreaks were reported in the Mashonaland provinces after a long period of absence. This is worrisome given the economic value of this disease to the beef and dairy enterprises in the country. Conclusion The greater part of the SADC Region has experience a poor 2017/18 rainfall season characterised by erratic and poorly distributed rainfall. This is likely to reduce significantly the 2018 summer agricultural production in the Region with negative consequences on food security for many households, particularly the majority who are poor and depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. This is notwithstanding the improvements in the rainfall season observed in most parts of the Region from end of January to the end of February 2018. Both crop and livestock assessments and the National Vulnerability Assessment Committee annual vulnerability assessments will be critical in informing the situation and the inevitable response interventions. As such, the assessments should be carried out timeously. Agriculture Information Management System, FANR Directorate, TEL: 267 3951863 SADC Secretariat, FAX: 267 3972848 P/BAG 0095, E-mail: registry@ sadc.int Gaborone, Website: www.sadc.int Botswana pg. 6