How the transport sector could contribute to national climate targets Stefan Schönberger, BCG Ludwigsburg, February 1, 018 0 Climate Paths for Germany
Unique fact base Broad validation of results All sectors Analysis level: individual GHG reduction measures Optimized to minimize GHG abatement costs Investments, costs, GDP effects 68 industry associations and companies ~ 00 industry experts ~ 40 workshops Scientific board 1
Agenda for today Overview on climate paths for Germany: all sectors Deep-dive transport sector Investments, costs and macroeconomic implications
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Germany Mt CO e 61% GHG reduction under "current policies" scenario, but major gap to national reduction targets 1,51 Mt 015: 90 Mt 800 600 NRT 030 400 00 0 1990 00 030 040 NRT = national reduction targets of the German government (corridor) -61% NRT Current policies 80% climate path 95% climate path 3
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Germany Mt CO e 1,51 Mt 015: 90 Mt but a major gap to national reduction target remains 800 600 NRT 030 400 00 0 1990 00 030 040 NRT = national reduction targets of the German government (corridor) -61% 80% NRT 95% Gap: 19-34% 4
80% path achievable with existing technologies Power: 40 GW wind and PV, grid expansion Power: Gas gradually replaces coal in backup generation Buildings: 50% more insulation/refurbishments (1.7% p.a.) Buildings: Expanded urban district heating Buildings: 11 million heat pumps, mainly in 1- to -family homes PV = Photovoltaik Alle Zahlen beziehen sich auf Industry: 90% penetration of efficiency technologies Industry: Concentration of national solid biomass for heat < 500 C Transport: 6M electric vehicles, /3 of passenger cars Transport: 4,000 km of electric overhead lines for highway trucks Agriculture: More efficient use of fertilizer 5
95% path pushes boundaries of technology and acceptance 340 TWh Imports of renewable fuels (PtL, PtG) Power: 40 9 GW wind and PV, grid expansion Power: Gas 100% gradually renewable replaces through PtG, coalgas in grid backup becomesgeneration seasonal storage Buildings: 70% 50% more insulation/refurbishments (1.9% (1.7% p.a.) Buildings: Heating Expanded free of fossil urban fuels district (through heating 14M. heat pumps and 100% Buildings: 11M heat pumps, renewable district heating) mainly in 1- to -family homes PtL = Power-to-Liquid, PtG = Power-to-Gas Alle Zahlen beziehen sich auf Industry: 90% 100 % penetration renewable heat and of steam efficiency throughtechnologies biogas and PtG Industry: Concentration produced with of recycled national carbon solid biomass from biomass for heat incineration < 500 C Transport: 6M 31M electric vehicles, vehicles, 4/5 of passenger /3 of passenger cars cars Transport: 4,000 8,000 km of electric overhead lines for highway trucks Agriculture: More "Methane pill" efficient for cattleuse population of fertilizer Carbon capture and storage for steel, cement, ammonia, refineries, and waste combustion 6
80% path with uneven sector contributions, 95% means zero emissions for many Bubbles: Mt CO e % change vs. 1990 1990 (dark) vs. 015 (light) Current policies 80% climate path 95% climate path Power sector -% -71% -89% -100% Industrial processes -36% -41% -51% -87% Industrial heat/steam Transport Buildings Agriculture, other -3% -% -39% -46% 1990: 1,51 015: 90 (-8%) 493-5% -44% -70% 58% -61% -7% -99% -73% -100% -9% - 100% -70 % -74% 54-80% 6-95% 7
Deep-dive transport sector 8
Emissions in the transport sector occur on the road Direct GHG emissions in the German transport sector (Mt CO e) Current policies 80% path 95% path 161 6 11 36 108 015-43 % 143 7 11 36 90 030 International bunker fuels 8 9 3 45 National aviation, Shipping, Rail, Bus 6 161 6 11 36 108 015-7 % 18 7 9 31 Shipping 7 9 10 Aviation 5 8 8 81 030 Light commercial vehicles (<3.5t) 45 5 16-100 % 161 6 11 35 1 6 8 9 108 79 015 030 Shipping 7 8 Aviation 5 7 Heavy commerial vehicles (>3.5t) Cars 0 0 9
Technology mix to reach the climate targets GHG-reduction by major levers (caused emisssions; Mt CO e) 6 Indirect emissions (power system) 161 direct emissions 167 5 60 40 35 38 international bunkers 015 Modal shift Efficiency Drive change Decarbonization Synthetic fuels to rail, ship, bus, and of non-motorized transport power system Current policies 80% path 95% path to battery, plug-in hybrids, fuel cell, catenaryhybrids, gas 7 0 95% path 10
Car fleet: By /3 e-mobility share in 80% path, 4/5 in 95% path... German car fleet (million cars registered in Germany) Current policies 80% climate path 95% climate path 44 1 46 1 46 45 5 3 4 9 44 1 46 1 46 4 43 11 41 1 44 1 46 1 46 4 43 1 13 41 30 14 015 9 16 00 6 14 030 3 11 040 5 18 7 30 14 015 9 16 00 4 14 030 5 15 9 040 1 5 3 8 5 30 14 015 9 16 00 4 4 3 8 14 030 14 9 040 3 3 3 Fuel cell Battery Plug-in hybrids Gas Gasoline Diesel 11
at much higher shares of new car sales Cars newly registered in Germany (million) Current policies 80% climate path 95% climate path 3, 3, 1,6 1,6 1,5 1,1 015 00 3,1 0,4 0, 0, 1,5 0,7 030 Quelle: Prognos; BCG 3,0 0,7 0,4 1,3 0,5 040,9 1, 0,6 0,9 3, 1,6 1,5 015 3, 1,6 1,1 00 3,1 0,8 0,5 0, 1,0 0,6 030 3,0,9 1,7,1 0,4 0, 0,4 0, 0, 040 3, 0,0 1,6 1,5 015 3, 1,6 1,1 00 3,1 0,8 0,4 0,3 0,8 0,7 030 3,0, 0, 0, 0, 040,9 0,,5 Fuel cell Battery Plug-in hybrids Gas Gasoline Diesel 1
Technology mix in trucks German heavy commercial vehicle fleet (>3.5t) (thousand vehicles registered in Germany) Current policies 80% climate path 95% climate path 711 700 710 696 015 00 691 13 675 030 Quelle: Prognos; BCG 675 9 641 040 653 4 53 595 711 710 015 684 680 00 671 14 6 43 9 568 030 637 66 71 64 397 040 595 30 118 100 39 10 07 711 710 015 684 5 657 00 671 53 18 14 67 505 030 637 3 97 8 3 119 76 040 595 60 19 176 43 98 90 Fuel cell Battery Catenary hybrid Plug-in hybrid Gas Diesel 13
Energy consumption in the transport sector decreases significantly Final energy consumption in the German transport sector (TWh) 015 030 National transport International aviation and shipping bunkers 30 635 586 119 93 6 11 599 1 551 31 5 4 Current policies 14 30 30 461 8 80% path 30 36 9 507 395 3 9 95% path 431 44 30 38 6 Current policies 98 79 10 38 94 30 3 8 141 74 9 80% path 108 108 106 105 105 34 14 34 33 14 1 143 143 47 95% path 143 105 38 38 38 38% power 51% synfuels 11% biofuels 100% synfuels Power Hydrogen Gas (synthetic) Gas (fossils) Gasoline/Diesel (synthetic) Biofuels (liquid, gaseous) Gasoline/Diesel (fossils) Aviation (synfuels) Aviation (fossils) Shipping (synfuels) Shipping (fossils) 14
95% path: 189B investments in synthetic fuel plants by Necessary investments in synthetic fuel plants to meet the German demand of 383 TWh in ( B, cumulated) Fuel Origin Use 0, 00 9 05 3 030 53 035 98 040 157 045 189B 1 % 37 % 6 % H (4 TWh) PtG (147 TWh) PtL (1 TWh) 189B 6 % 94 % Inland (43 TWh) Imports (340 TWh) 189B 41 % 31 % 9 % International aviation and shipping (143 TWh) National transport (15 TWh) Other sectors (15 TWh) 15
16 Investments, costs and macroeconomic implications
Largest part of the investments in the transport sector Cumulative marginal investments until vs. scenario without GHG reduction efforts (B, not discounted) ~,300B 10B 430B 500B 16 8 34 81 480B E-mobility in cars inkl. charging infrastructure Efficient drives in road transport Change of drives in trucks inkl. catenary lines Modal shift, other ~ 1,500B 80% path: ~1,000 Current policies: ~530 95% path: ~ 1,770 Current policies: ~530 Industry Energy Transport Buildings 80% path 95% path 17
80% macroeconomically viable 95% only with international collaboration 80% climate path 95% climate path Addional investments 1 1,500B (transport 500B),300B (transport 60B) Additional macroeconomic costs 1 470B (transport 40B) Ø 15B/a 960B (transport 410B) Ø 30B/a Impact on GDP Slighly positive in all scenarios 1. Cumulated figures each for the years 016 to ; including investments and additional costs of the current policies scenarios; at a macroeconomic discount rate of %; imports at cross-border prices Investment effort Macroeconomically viable Slightly positive only in case of global cooperation Significant social and technical effort Only imaginable with international consensus 18
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