ICSS2009 Food and water Climate change and waterborne infectious from an aspect of regional sustainable development Tatsuo Omura Professor Graduate School of Engineering Tohoku University, Japan Sanjoukaikann The University of Tokyo February 5th, 2009 CONTENTS. Infectious enhanced by climate change must be global issues for regional sustainability 2. Regional sustainability and health risk of infectious 3. Infectious risk evaluation in water utilization system in Mekong watershed (from RR2002 project) 4. Regional sustainable development through water utilization system in consideration of climate change 5.conclusion International Efforts for Issues on Water Resources & Health Adoption at the Environment & Development Summit 2002, South Africa) Water resources 25~40% of underground & river water resources are wasted through irrigation To create national action plans for water resource management considering ecosystem preservation To achieve 5% higher efficiency in using agricultural water To achieve 0% higher efficiency in using agricultural water present 2005 200 205 Health 6000 children/day are dying due to unsafe drinking water in developing countries To reduce number of disease cases owing to unsafe water by 35% To reduce number of disease cases owing to unsafe water by 70% Developed countries 2 Causes of death in 998 Infectious and parasitic Perinatal and maternal causes Cancers Developing countries Diseases of the 46 24 circulatory system Diseases of the 8 5 respiratory system 23 Other and unknown 9 causes 50 40 30 20 0 0 0 0 20 30 40 50 (%) Source: WHO (999) (%) 99.8% of death associated with unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene are in developing countries (WHO, 2002). 0 43 43
Infant mortality rates in 2004 (Unit: death per,000 live births) China 26 5 Republic of Korea Japan 3 Shigella spp. Waterborne pathogens (bacteria) V. cholerae Bangladesh Myanmar 75 56 Lao PDR 65 Thailand Vietnam 8 Cambodia 7 97 Philippines 26 Malaysia 0 Singapore 2 Indonesia 30 Source: WHO (2006) World Health Report Timor-Leste 64 (Australia) 5 Vibrio spp. Salmonella typhi Waterborne pathogens (protozoa) Waterborne pathogens (viruses) Norovirus Rotavirus Giardia Cryptosporidium Hepatitis A virus Adenovirus 2
Societal/climate changes and risk of waterborne infectious disease in the future Keywords for societal and climate changes International society Outbreak of imported infectious Climate change Outbreak of infectious due to the lack of water resources Increase of risk of infectious Overpopulated society Acceleration of water reuse and reclamation (water shortage) Additional millions of people at risk of increased water shortage Effect of Water shortage due to climate change on health risk 3500-3000 - 2500-2000 - 500-000 - 500-0 - 0 0.5 Prediction in 2080.0.5 2.0 Temperature increase ( o C) 2.5 3.0 Modified from Parry et al (200) Global Environmental Change,, 8 83. Curve with max-min range and dotted line are based on IPCC (2000) and IPCC (200). Simulation of Dispersion of total coliforms due to flooding in Cambodia in 2002 Estimated impacts of climate change in 2000, by WHO-region Water depth Conc. of total coliforms 0 2 4 6 8 (m) 0 40 280 420 560 (x0 2 CFU/m 3 ) Source: WHO(2003) 3
Europe etc East Asia SE Asia Movement of human and foods between basins and its relation to infections Chao Phraya basin France Other areas Pollution of water and food Commodity distribution between areas and its relation to infections Water pollution and infections Mekong basin Spread of infections Circulation of Water Resources Japan Hwang Ho basin Migration of population and its relation to infections Climate change Internalization Population growth Summary Infectious and parasitic related to water utilization are the main causes of death in developing countries. Risk of infectious would be increased with societal and climate changes in the future. It is critical to elucidate the transboundary movement of pathogens with climate change in order to avoid the prevalence of infectious. CONTENTS. Infectious enhanced by climate change must be global issues for regional sustainability 2. Regional sustainability and health risk of infectious 3. Infectious risk evaluation in water utilization system in Mekong watershed (from RR2002 project) 4. Regional sustainable development through water utilization system in consideration of climate change 5.conclusion Sustainable development limited due to high risk of infectious Limiting Poverty Lack of infrastructures Shortage of clean water resources Sustainable development Slow economic development Lack of education Poor sanitation Limiting Lack of human resources High mortality of children Climate change High risk of infectious enhancing 4
Probability of dying due to diarrhoeal under 5 years (per 0 6 live births) Economy and health risk 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 n = 52 r = - 0.86 (p<0.0) 0 0 00,000 0,000 00,000 Gross National Income per capita (US$) Source: WHO World Health Statistics (2006) - 92 countries Summary High risk of waterborne infectious is a factor to limit sustainable development. Risk of infectious has been characterized with societal factors such as GNI, population, infrastructure and so on but relationship between climate change and health risk has not been investigated sufficiently. CONTENTS. Infectious enhanced by climate change must be global issues for regional sustainability 2. Regional sustainability and health risk of infectious 3. Infectious risk evaluation in water utilization system in Mekong watershed (from RR2002 project) Study area - Groundwater with high salinity - Relatively low precipitation Khon Kaen Thailand Surveyed in rainy season Surveyed in dry season Surveyed in both seasons Lao PDR - Low percentages of population with access to safe water sources and improved sanitation 4. Regional sustainable development through water utilization system in consideration of climate change 5.conclusion - Low percentages of population with access to safe water sources and improved sanitation - Flooding (colmatage) Cambodia Mekong delta Vietnam - Flooding -Complicated canal systems 0 00 200km - Intrusion of seawater to rivers and canals 5
Water utilization and Annual deaths due to infectious diarrhea - Worldwide:.8 million - Southeast Asia: 0.5 mil. Unsanitary water attributes to 90% of the deaths. Safe water sources Tap (piped) water Unsafe water sources River water Lake water Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Vietnam Protected well Mortality for children < 5yrs [%] 3.3 3.3 2.3 3.5 Access to safe water source [%] 34 43 85 73 Open well Vietnam Thailand Main drinking water source in each study area Lao PDR Cambodia near rivers far from rivers Rainy season Dry season River water River water (rainwater) Well water Well water (rainwater) Well water/ river water Water supply systems Provincial water supply system Village water supply system Main drinking water sources in each study area Lao PDR Cambodia Vietnam Thailand near rivers far from rivers Rainy season Dry season River water River water (rainwater) Well water / Well water (rainwater) Well water/ river water 6
Procedure of risk evaluation for infectious diarrhea associated with drinking water Area and drinking water source for risk evaluation Field survey Detections of total coliforms & E.coli Interview survey Estimation of E.coli conc. n Equation R 2 Tap water (PWS) 6 Y < 0.0X - Tap water (VWS).0 0 Y = 0.2X 0.56 Y = 2.9X 0.76 0.8 River water 8 Y = 4.0X 0.69 Well water 0.6 7 Y = 3.8X 0.56 Bottled water 0.4 25 Y = 0.076X 0.34 Y: Conc. of E.coli [MPN/00mL]. X: Conc. of total coliforms 0.2 [CFU/mL]. Calculation of infectious risk Infectious probability 0.0 0 20 40 60 80 00 Dosage of E.coli [x0 3 MPN] Lao PDR Cambodia Vietnam Thailand near rivers far from rivers Rainy season Tap water / Bottled water Dry season Tap water / Bottled water River water / River water rainwater Well water / Well water rainwater Well water/ river water Procedure for risk evaluation based on GIS data () () Determination of drinking water source Data sets Land use River Image Procedure for risk evaluation based on GIS data (2) (2) Estimation of the contamination of drinking water with total coliforms <Based on multiple regression model> Well water: X = 0.50 POPD - 0.72 SANI + 36 (N = 6, R 2 = 0.69, p = 0.7) where, X : Concentration of total coliforms [CFU/mL] POPD: Population density [person/km 2 ] SANI : Access to improved sanitation based on population [%] Drinking water source Tap water River is included in the mesh? Yes River water No Well water 7
Risk factors for the contamination of well water Population density [person/km 2 ] Access to adequate sanitation based on population (%) Procedure for risk evaluation based on GIS data (2) (2) Estimation of the contamination of drinking water with total coliforms <Based on multiple regression model> Well water: X = 0.50 POPD - 0.72 SANI + 36 (N = 6, R 2 = 0.69, p = 0.7) where, X : Concentration of total coliforms [CFU/mL] POPD: Population density [person/km 2 ] SANI : Population with access to adequate sanitation [%] <Based on the average of measured data> Tap water from PWS: X = 9 (S.D. = 0) Tap water from VWS: X = 32 (S.D. = 44) River water: X = 36 (S.D. = 55) Risk of infectious diarrhea in dry season 0-0 -2 0-3 0-4 0-5 0-6 Vientiane Phnom Penh Vientiane 0km Phnom Penh 0km Low population density & High accessibility to good sanitation: Moderate risk (0-3 to0-2 ) High population density & Low accessibility to good sanitation: High risk ( 0 - ) with access to tap water: Low risk (about 0-4 ) Possible scenarios on risk reduction in the Mekong watershed Scenario A. Improvement of tap water quality in urban area. Scenario B. Promotion of drinking rainwater in rural area. 8
Scenario A. Improvement of tap water quality in urban area Initial Savannakhet 0km Annual infected person: 4,540,000 Scenario B. Promotion of drinking rainwater in rural area Initial Annual infected person: 4,540,000 0 - Savannakhet Case Savannakhet 0km Reduction of infected persons by chlorine disinfection of tap water: 562 0-0 -2 0-2 0-3 0-4 0-5 0-6 Case 2 Savannakhet 0km Reduction of infected persons by strict quality management of tap water: 60 0-3 0-4 0-5 0-6 Scenario B. Promotion of drinking rainwater in rural area Case Annual infected person: 2,20,000 (47% of the initial) Scenario B. Promotion of drinking rainwater in rural area Case 2 Annual infected person:,30,000 (25% of the initial) If promoted to provinces: 6 in Lao PDR and 7 in Cambodia. If promoted to provinces: 2 in Lao PDR and 4 in Cambodia. 0-0 - 0-2 0-2 0-3 0-3 0-4 0-4 0-5 0-5 0-6 0-6 9
Scenario B. Promotion of drinking rainwater in rural area 0-0 -2 0-3 0-4 0-5 Case 3 Annual infected person:,050,000 (23% of the initial) If promoted to provinces: all in Lao PDR and all in Cambodia. Summary Source of drinking water and its contamination with indicator bacteria in the Mekong watershed were clarified. Tap water and bottled water are drunk in urban area. Total coliforms are sometimes detected from the drinking waters. River water and well water with high concentration of indicator bacteria are used for drinking in rural area. 0-6 Summary (cont d) Risk of infectious diarrhea associated with drinking water was evaluated in Lao PDR and Cambodia. The risk was quite high in rural area surrounding capital cities. Introduction of rainwater as drinking water source is more effective for reducing the risk of infectious. Model developed will be the powerful tool in evaluating the risk of infectious. CONTENTS. Infectious enhanced by climate change must be global issues for regional sustainability 2. Regional sustainability and health risk of infectious 3. Infectious risk evaluation in water utilization system in Mekong watershed (from RR2002 project) 4. Regional sustainable development through water utilization system in consideration of climate change 5.conclusion 0
Regional sustainable development through water utilization system in consideration of climate change CONTENTS International society, Climate change, and Overpopulated society Present society with high infectious risk in the region Transboundary movement of pathogens Risk evaluation methodology Surveys on source and fate of pathogens Pollution of water resources Risk evaluation Characteristics of water utilization Studies on culture, economy, society, etc. Technology for water & wastewater treatment Control of water pollution Risk reduction Change of water utilization Construction of water utilization system applicable to the region Regional sustainable development Future society with minimized infectious risk in the region. Infectious enhanced by climate change must be global issues for regional sustainability 2. Regional sustainability and health risk of infectious 3. Infectious risk evaluation in water utilization system in Mekong watershed (from RR2002 project) 4. Regional sustainable development through water utilization system in consideration of climate change 5.conclusion Conclusion In order to materialize the regional sustainable development, we need to develop the innovative methodology on the regional sustainability toward the resolution of issues caused by climate change in the context of preventing the prevalence of infectious. Acknowledgement Prof. Masahiro Takahashi (Hokkaido Univ.) Prof. Satoshi Takizawa (Univ. of Tokyo) Mr. Masaaki Ozaki (PWRI) Mr. Kazuya Fujiu (National Inst. of Land and Infrastructure Management) Prof. Shigeo Fujii (Kyoto Univ.) Prof. Hitoshi Tanaka (Tohoku Univ.) Prof. Akira Yuasa (Gifu Univ.) Prof. Yoshimasa Watanabe (Hokkaido Univ.) Prof. Hideki Harada (Tohoku Univ.) Dr. Satoshi Nakamura (Int l Medical Centre of Japan) Prof. Hisashi Kurokura (Univ. of Tokyo) and, other members of RR2002 project entitled Development of risk management system for the safety of water resources in monsoon Asia (FY2003-2006).
Acknowledgement (cont d) THAILAND - Asian Institute of Technology - Thammasat University - Mahidol University - Khon Kaen University LAO PDR - National Institute of Public Health - National Center for Laboratory and Epidemiology CAMBODIA - National Malaria Center - Department of Drugs and Food, Ministry of Health VIETNAM - Southern Institute of Water Resources Research - National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology and, other counterparts in southeast Asian countries. Thank you very much for your kind attention Simulation of Dispersion of total coliforms due to flooding in Cambodia in 2002 Evaluation of seasonal infectious risk Water depth Conc. of total coliforms annual infectious risk infectious risk in flood season Infectious risk in dry season 0 2 4 6 8 (m) 0 40 280 420 560 (x0 2 CFU/m 3 ) low low 0.20 Infectious 0.40 0.60 risk 0.80.00 high 2
Comparison of infectious risk due to flood magnitude in using surface water as drinking water source Flood magnitude: small medium big In case of small flood, infectious risk is locally very high with small flood area. Infectious risk decreases with increase of flood area due to dispersion of pathogens. 3