IEA In-depth review of Greece Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency IEA Athens, 2 November 2017
The global energy context today Global energy markets are changing rapidly Solar at records highs, driven by policy support & cost reductions Electric car sales are growing exponentially Renewed focus on energy efficiency While a continued focus on oil security is essential, a broader approach to energy security is needed due to changes in natural gas & electricity markets There is no single story about the future of global energy; policies will determine where we go from here
A rapidly shifting energy landscape Shares in growth in world energy demand Nuclear 2% Renewables 12% Coal 10% Renewables 32% Gas 23% Coal 47% Oil 27% Oil 16% Nuclear 0% Gas 31% 2000-2010 2010-2016 Since 2010, efficiency measures have slowed down growth in global energy consumption. Renewables and natural gas account for almost two-thirds of the growth.
Natural Gas: The United States accounts for 40% of global production growth Global natural gas production growth, 2016-22 United States Middle East China Australia Russia Europe - 40 0 40 80 120 160 bcm Since 2009, US shale has added the equivalent of two Qatars to the global balance; Middle East and China set to significantly expand production to 2022
Global CO 2 emissions flat for 3 years Global energy-related CO 2 emissions Gt 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 Global CO2 emissions remained flat in 2016 for the third year in a row, even though the global economy grew
Efficiency and renewables key to global climate change mitigation Global CO2 emissions reductions in the Central & 2 C Scenario by technology Gt 38 34 30 Central Scenario Efficiency 26 Renewables 22 2 C Scenario Fuel switching Nuclear CCS 18 Other 2010 2020 2030 2040 Supply-side investment needs to be re-directed, not increased; demand-side investment for energy efficiency, electrification & renewables needs to ramp up significantly.
Turning to Greece From a global energy context to energy policy in Greece
Energy Sector Reform Electricity: Gas: - Transmission operator fully unbundled from PPC - Wholesale and retail markets still dominated by PPC - Gradual introduction of EU target model starting in 2018 - Retail sector opened to competition on 1 January 2018 - Transmission unbundling pending need to expedite selling off 66% share of TSO - Rethinking DEPA s role in the unbundled supply companies Energy Sector Regulator pursued timely implementation of legislation jointly with other stakeholders
Security of Supply Greece compliant with IEA oil stock holding requirement since 2004 National oil and gas emergency plan adopted since last in-depth review Gas emergency plan proved robust during the winter 2016/17 supply shortage, but: - vulnerability to disruptions of the LNG supply chain - need to make electricity and gas sectors more price responsive - need to further strengthen regional interconnections and storage
GDP and CO2 are decoupling, but slower compared to IEA average GDP, CO₂ emissions and carbon intensity in Greece and IEA29, 1990-2015 120 110 100 90 80 Index 2005 GDP (PPP) - IEA29 CO2 emissions - IEA29 GDP (PPP) - Greece CO2 emissions - Greece 70 60 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Decoupling CO₂ emissions strongly related to GDP development Greece needs to prepare for a recovering economy
Electricity Sector moving towards decarbonization Electricity generation by fuel 80 60 40 20 TWh Oil Coal Natural gas Biofuels and waste Hydro Solar Wind 0 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Net imports Greece managed to integrate high levels of renewables due to a diversified electricity capacity mix
Greece IDR: Key Recommendations Energy Planning: Develop an integrated national energy and climate policy framework for 2030 and beyond Sector Reform: Continue to prioritize implementation of gas and power sector reforms to further the creation of competitive and financially viable markets Energy Efficiency: Continue to pursue the implementation of ambitious energy efficiency policies Renewables: Leverage the renewable energy potential of the islands through interconnections with the mainland transmission system Regulatory Capacity: Ensure regulators capacity to carry out reform and oversight and ensure sufficient resources
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