One planet, too many people? Dr Tim Fox CEng FIMechE CEnv FRSA Head of Energy and Environment Institution of Mechanical Engineers London, UK 1
Our Planet Under Pressure Institution fully engaged in the public debate: 2
Overview Towards the peak Introduction Changing demographics Increased demand Engineering the basics The Population Challenge Food, water, urbanization and energy What needs to change? Conclusions 3
More people 21 st Century growth Increasing by c.75 million/yr up to 2016 then slows Additional 2.3 billion by 2050 Billions 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 World Asia Africa Europe Peak at 9.5 billion in 2075 Regional variation European, North American, Australasian and Japanese close to stable and/or decline 3 2 1 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Source: United Nations 2009, Adapted from United Nations 2004 Asia currently has half world total but peaks at 5.3bn in 2065 Africa expands most relatively, more than doubling by 2100 Latin America North America 4
Elderly North - Younger South North Already aged substantially by 2010 and projected to continue By 2050, 27% 65+ in Europe and 22% 65+ in North America By 2050, 30% <30 in Europe and 38% <30 in North America South Relatively little ageing before 2010 but projected to turn-up sharply Asia & Latin America approach North America by 2050 with c.20% 65+ and c.40% <30 Africa remains young throughout 5
More urban dwellers An urban future 29% urban in 1950 50% urban in 2010 75% urban in 2075 Africa and Asia urbanising most rapidly in 21 st Century % urban 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 Source: United Nations 2010 An older North and younger South North America Europe Latin America Asia Africa The rise of the mega-city City regions of 1 million or more total 450 (c. 1bn people) 20 have more than 10 million and expect 29 by 2025 6
More consumption An appetite for growth GDP in North America has grown 25-fold since 1800 s Ratio of income per capita North America to Africa was 3 in early 1800 s, now 17 Most rapid growth has been in Asia, expanded 8-fold in 50 years Changing tastes Dollars per capita 100000 10000 1000 100 1800 1900 2000 2100 Source: GGDC 2010 North America Europe Latin America Asia Africa Most populous region becoming more affluent, fuelling unprecedented consumer demand for goods, food, energy 7
Increased global demand Basic needs Food double agricultural production by 2050 Water global consumption up 30% by 2030 Shelter 75% of people urban by 2050 (3 billion more) Energy Double of demand by 2050, possibly quadruple by 2100 Exacerbated by climate change & geopolitical tension Extreme weather, droughts, floods, sea level rise Estimates that up to 1 billion people displaced by 2050 Finite resources, rare earths etc How to meet this challenge through engineering? 8
Engineering the basics One Planet, Too Many People? Demographic change in 21 st Century will challenge civil society, government and in particular engineers Acknowledge forecasting demographic change includes uncertainty, that scenarios are possible outcomes; report responds to general trends Involved over 70 engineers in professional practice around the world Considers basic human needs; food, water and shelter Additionally examines access to affordable energy which underpins increased well-being and economic growth Climate change considered as a stress inducer 9
Three regions 21 st Century demographics Fully developed (mature post-industrial economies) stable/declining populations e.g. EU down 20% by 2100 increasing older population, declining youth Late-stage developing (current high industrialisation) decelerating growth e.g. Asia up 25% by peak in 2065 increased affluence, ageing population Newly developing (about to industrialise) accelerating population growth majority of global increase e.g. Africa up double by 2050 (some nations triple or more) younger population (53% under 30 by 2050), increasingly urbanised 10
Characteristic countries Everyone s comfort Increasing interdependence global population growth and its impact is an issue that has no respect for borders 11
The Population Challenge International young engineers technical competition Ran March to November 2011 Teams composed of 4 6 young engineers 23 teams from nine countries registered The Brief Consider changing demographics and projected climate Identify most pressing 21 st Century challenge in food, water, urbanisation or energy for their own country Propose sustainable engineering based solution(s) Objective Build on IMechE Report finding and extend evidence base Inspire young engineers to innovate and engage with the local communities and wider society in which they practice 12
Runners-up Competition outputs - Finalists Hong Kong Sustainable water supply USA Sustainable urban transport infrastructure Nigeria Sustainable energy supply Trinidad & Tobago Sustainable energy supply Winners - Anambra State University Nigeria Sustainable food supply Oil-dependency, increasing population and ineffective use of arable land Produce storage and transportation Mechanisation, irrigation, agrochemicals, biotechnology and enhanced organic Political, financial and social issues 13
Food Improving arable land use and produce handling Water efficiency in agriculture and processing Mechanisation, automation and robotics Post-harvest losses in storage and transportation Land drainage, salinity and alkalinity 14
Water Improving water capture, storage and management Storm water capture and storage, control of leakage Separate sewage and storm water systems, recycling Groundwater management, aquifer storage & recovery Desalination 15
Urbanization Building on communities Cities have deeply engrained cultures; engineers need to work with them, there is no one-size-fits-all Integrating and planning; food, water, housing, energy, waste and transportation Slums, informal economy and community cohesion Climate change induced sealevel rise 16
Energy Innovate and enable access Demand reduction and efficiency improvements Energy management technologies Low-carbon clean technologies and market failures Local domestic & community level clean technologies 17
Empower communities Finance and Ownership Innovative financing mechanisms and novel models of personal and community ownership that drive adoption of localised clean technologies and sustainable engineering Innovative intervention programmes that channel infrastructure financing direct to poor communities who plan and carry-out improvements, thus handing the communities a central role 18
Engineering response No insurmountable engineering challenges Engineering technology and sustainable practice know-how exists today to meet many of the anticipated challenges Unique opportunity with newly industrialising region Majority of 21 st century population growth while heading off on the road to industrialisation Apply lessons learnt and leapfrog the high GHG emissions resource-hungry phase of early industrialisation If don t, developing to same per capita GHG footprint as Asia now by 2050; GHG emissions up x3 to 7Gt/yr Europe now by 2100; up x10 to 27Gt/yr Climate change and resource depletion more severe for all 19
What needs to change? No need to delay action waiting for a breakthrough Encourage innovation in development, demonstration, deployment of viable clean technologies and sustainable engineering practice as a priority; innovate the costs out Tackle non-technological barriers of finance, politics, ethics, regulation, ownership; issue often implementation barriers Address the inherent global imbalance of the challenge Engage engineers in government and decision making Engineers need to take a more human holistic view Communication and sharing between disciplines and sectors Understand human dimensions and develop holistic localised interventions; no one-size-fits-all approach Engineering Development Goals (5 EDGs) 20
Conclusions No insurmountable engineering challenges to meeting the food, water, shelter and energy needs of 9.5bn people by late 21 st Century. Finance, politics, regulation, ethics and ownership are often the implementation barriers Interventions need to be more holistic, multidisciplined, participatory and local context sensitive. Unique opportunity exists to help newly developing world leapfrog the resource-hungry dirty phase of industrialisation; avoid our failures and mistakes. There is much that the developed world can learn from contemporary sustainable practice in developing nations. 21
Questions? Thank you www.imeche.org http://www.imeche.org/knowledge/themes/environment/population 22