The potential role of Canada s forest sector in mitigating climate change Werner A. Kurz Natural Resources Canada Canadian Forest Service Congrès 2017 Conseil de l'industrie forestière du Québec Quebec City May 18 th 2017
2 2016 hottest year on record again Source: http://www.ecowatch.com/2016-hottest-year-on-record-2176895643.html
Observed temperature Temperature anomaly for February 2016 compared to 1951-1980 average (degrees C) 3
Predicted change in temperature Low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) scenarios 4 Source: IPCC AR5 Summary for Policy Makers, Figure SPM7
5 Paris Agreement Ambitious temperature target well below 2 o C. The submissions on intended Nationally- Determined Contributions (NDCs) from ~148 countries recognise the importance of the land sector in achieving GHG emission reduction targets. 5 2
IPCC emissions scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways To stay below the 2 o C climate threshold NEGATIVE net emissions are required in the 2 nd half of this century. Forests can contribute to removing carbon from the atmosphere cost effectively and with multiple co-benefits. 6 CO 2 Concentrations CO 2 Emissions Source: Zwiers, Van Vuuren et al. 2011, Climatic Change
Emissions from fossil fuel use and industry Global emissions from fossil fuel and industry: 36.3 ± 1.8 GtCO 2 in 2015, 63% over 1990 Projection for 2016: 36.4 ± 2.3 GtCO 2, 0.2% higher than 2015 Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC likely range) Estimates for 2014 and 2015 are preliminary. Growth rate is adjusted for the leap year in 2016. Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016
Fate of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions (2006-2015) 34.1 GtCO 2 /yr 91% 16.4 GtCO 2 /yr 44% Fossil Fuel burning Deforestation, land-use change Sources = Sinks 9% 3.5 GtCO 2 /yr 31% 11.6 GtCO 2 /yr 26% 9.7 GtCO 2 /yr Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016
9 We re looking for new, ground-breaking, transformational approaches to converting CO 2 emissions into valuable products. Source: http://carbon.xprize.org/news/introducing-20m-nrg-cosia-carbon-xprize Tuesday Sept 29, 2015
10 We re looking for approaches to converting CO2 emissions into valuable products.
11 Forest Carbon 50% of the dry weight of wood is carbon. 1 m 3 of wood contains ~ 0.25 tons of carbon or ~1 ton of CO 2 ~ 350 litres of gasoline
Data Source: Stinson et al. 2011 Harvested Wood Products
Canada s National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting &Reporting System One national system, many uses: 13 Reporting past C dynamics National GHG Inventory since 2006 State of Canada s Forests Projecting future C dynamics Scientific research Policy development International negotiations Develop climate mitigation and adaptation strategies 13 http://www.ec.gc.ca/ges-ghg/ 3
14 Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) An operational-scale model of forest C dynamics. Builds on 25+ years of experience Allows forest managers to assess carbon implications of forest management: increase sinks, reduce sources Available at carbon.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca
15 National-scale integration of forest C cycle data Forest inventory and growth & yield data Natural disturbance monitoring data Forest management activity data Land-use change data Ecological modelling parameters Source: Kurz and Apps, 2006, Kurz et al. 2009 CBM-CFS3
Boundaries of 634 Management Units in the Managed Forest (for GHG reporting purposes) 16
17 Carbon balance of Canada s managed forests Forest sector GHG dynamics strongly affected by natural disturbances. Source Sink FL-FL plus HWP emissions Insects Fire Harvest Emissions (FL-FL) Forests are a carbon sink. Forest management provides timber, fiber and energy to society some of that carbon is stored in products, some is emitted from burning and decay of products Source: Updated after Stinson et al. 2011, ECCC 2016
18 C transfers to Forest Products Sector Cumulative and annual transfer of carbon to products 1.26 billion tonnes of C (cumulative) 50.4 Mt/year (average) = 185 Mt CO 2 e (equivalent to ~25% of emissions from all other sectors)
~ 1 million cubic meters of wood ~ 0.25 Mt C 19 Canada s annual harvest ~185 times this: Provides timber, fibre and energy
20 Mitigation Strategies: Need for Systems Perspective Minimise net Emissions to the Atmosphere Maximise Carbon Stocks How big are substitution benefits? Biofuel Fossil Fuel Non-forest Land Use Forest Ecosystems Wood Products Other Products Land-use Sector Forest Sector Source: IPCC 2007, AR4 WG III, Forestry Services used by Society
Mitigation Strategies: Evaluate change in fluxes to the atmosphere Maximise Carbon stocks. 21 Fossil Emissions Biofuel Fossil Fuel Forest Ecosystems Wood Products Other Products Services used by Society
Mitigation Strategies: Evaluate change in fluxes to the atmosphere or maximise Carbon uptake? 22 Fossil Emissions Forest Ecosystems Biofuel Wood Products Fossil Fuel Other Products Services used by Society
23 Systems Perspective Design of climate change mitigation portfolios in the forest sector should account for changes in C in forest ecosystems, in harvested wood products, and for changes in emission from substitution benefits relative to a base case. 23
24 Mitigation analyses: analytical framework Forest Ecosystems Biofuel Wood Products Fossil Fuel Other Products Carbon Budget Model CBM-CFS3 CBM FHWP Substitution Estimation CBM-CFS3 and CBM-FHWP used for Canada s National GHG inventory reporting. See last slide for supporting publications.
25 National-scale Mitigation Analysis http://www.biogeosciences.net/11/3515/2014/bg-11-3515-2014.pdf 25
Mitigation Analysis CO 2 CH 4 CO N 2 O Wildfires Forest CO 2 Seven FM Strategies 1. Better Growth 2. Planting 3. Better Utilization Growth/Regrowth Residue Management Dead organic matter and soil 4. Clear cut harvest 5. Commercial thinning 6. Pre-commercial thinning 7. Harvest Less Bioenergy Harvested Wood Products Displace alternate fuel sources Two HWP Strategies 1. Longer-lived products 2. Bioenergy Harvest Displace alternate products Displace alternate fuel sources 26
Total (Mt CO 2 e) 1500 1250 1000 750 500 250 0-250 Maximize FM and HWP mitigation Reduced emissions Increased emissions Cumulative emission reductions to 2050-500 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year Key findings: The best mitigation strategy varies by region: a portfolio derived by choosing the strategy in each region that maximizes mitigation will be best nationally Portfolio Mix: 1180 MtCO2e 34% foreign (hwp and disp.) Better Utilization+ LLP Harvest Less + LLP Longer-lived Products (LLP) Bioenergy feedstock 27
28 Mitigation Analysis for BC Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change: 2017 Study estimates that by 2050, 35% of BC s emission reduction target can be contributed by the forest sector at less than $100/tonne of CO 2 e with additional socioeconomic benefits Open Access at http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11027-016-9735-7.
Mitigation benefit increases with carbon retention and displacement factor Displacement Factor Bioenergy Paper Panels Packaging Structural Building Products Carbon Retention Time 29
30 Mitigation benefits by displacing emissions from concrete and steel through the use of wood products 6 story Wood Innovation Design Centre Prince George, BC 18-story wood building UBC, Vancouver Art Gallery of Ontario Toronto, Ontario
But do we have enough wood to increase manufacturing of long-lived products? Photos: T. Sullivan 2016 exports of unprocessed logs from BC ~6.3 million m 3
But do we have enough wood to increase manufacturing of long-lived products? BACK OF THE ENVELOPE CALCULATION: 2016 exports of unprocessed logs from BC ~6.3 million m 3 per year Assuming ~35% conversion efficiency to Cross Laminated Timber (CLT) This is enough wood to produce ~1,000 Brocks Commons buildings And leave 4 million m 3 of residues that could be converted into biofuels or other uses e.g. Photos: T. Sullivan ~ 300 million litres of diesel Which is about 7.5% of the diesel use in BC.
Reduce emissions from slash pile burning Alternate uses? Photo: T. Sullivan Photo: BC MoF
Can we capture energy and reduce non CO 2 emissions? Photos: T. Sullivan BC s average emissions from slash pile burning ~4.4 Mt CO2e/year
35 Climate change impacts affect mitigation options Impacts of environmental changes on forests will be both positive and negative: growth, mortality, disturbances. Understanding where, when and how these impacts will occur is necessary to design effective climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies for the forest sector. Ongoing CFS research, in collaboration with universities and provincial agencies, will inform the design of regionally-differentiated mitigation strategies.
36 10 steps towards forest sector mitigation Grow more trees, faster, to increase carbon stocks Avoid land-use change (deforestation) Use harvested trees first for long-lived products Maximize carbon retention in harvested wood products and reduce wood waste at every stage Maximize avoided emissions through wood use Do not burn residues or waste unless energy is captured Conserve forests in areas of high conservation value and of low risk of natural disturbance Anticipate climate change impacts and align mitigation and adaptation objectives Monitor consequences of mitigation actions Obtain public support to use forest sector in climate change mitigation strategies
37 Conclusions 2 o C goal of the Paris Agreement cannot be reached without reduction in burning of fossil fuels and the global forest sector contributing to net negative emissions. CFS research therefore focuses on: how the forest sector can mitigate climate change, and how forests will respond to the changing environment. Results show that Canada s forest sector can make significant contributions to climate change mitigation and that this contribution increases if mitigation actions start soon and are sustained. 37
Thank-you 38
39 Werner Kurz werner.kurz@canada.ca Publications at: http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/publications/search?query=kurz
40 Recent Publications with links Kurz et al. 2016. Climate change mitigation through forest sector activities: principles, potential and priorities. Unasylva 246 (67): 61-67. www.fao.org/3/a-i6419e.pdf Lemprière et al. 2017. Cost of climate change mitigation involving s Canada s forest sector. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. DOI: 10.1139/cjfr-2016-0348 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1139/cjfr-2016-0348 Smyth et al. 2016. Climate change mitigation potential of local use of harvest residues for bioenergy in Canada. Glob. Chg. Biol. Bioenergy. DOI: 10.1111/gcbb.12387 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcbb.12387/abstract Smyth et al. 2016. Estimating product and energy substitution benefits in national-scale mitigation analyses for Canada. Glob. Chg. Biol. Bioenergy. DOI: 10.1111/gcbb.12389 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcbb.12389/abstract Xu et al. 2017. Climate change mitigation strategies in the forest sector: biophysical impacts and economic implications in British Columbia, Canada. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. DOI: 10.1007/s11027-016-9730-z http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11027-016-9735-7.
Initial Analyses of BC Mitigation Strategies 41 Decay, slashburning BASECASE A. Higher Utilization Increase capture of stemwood by 5% (less harvesting waste) Increase salvage harvest B. Bioenergy (harvest residues) Capture up to 25% of harvest residue and reduce slashburning C. Higher Utilization + Bioenergy Combine A and B D. Harvest Less Reduce harvest by 2% E. Restricted Harvest No harvest of stands older than 250 years HWP A. More Longer-lived wood Products (More LLP) Shift from pulp and paper to panels (4% shift) Harvest less area for same product Capture residues and displace alternate fuel source Less paper, more panels
Multi-scenario assessment of climate change mitigation options for BC Cumulative Mitigation (MtCO 2 e) 450 350 250 150 50-50 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050 Higher Utilization + More LLP (74) Harvest Less + More LLP (74) Bioenergy + More LLP (60) Restricted Harvest + More LLP (54) Higher Utilization + Bioenergy (68) Higher Utilization + Bioenergy + More LLP (74) PORT1 The domestic mitigation in the best portfolio could contribute 35% of BC s GHG emission reduction target by 2050 at less than $100/tCO 2 e and additional socio-economic benefits. Source: Xu Z., C. Smyth, T. Lemprière, G. Rampley, W.A. Kurz. 2017 Climate change mitigation in British Columbia s forest sector: biophysical impacts and economic implications.
Mitigation Cost 300 Cost Curve for Multiple-Strategy Scenarios (2016-2050) 250 200 Cost per Tonne 150 100 50 0-50 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Annual Mitigation (MtCO2e/year) -100-150 Higher Utilization + Bioenergy Harvest Less + More LLP Higher Utilization + Bioenergy + More LLP Restricted Harvest + More LLP Higher Utilization + More LLP Bioenergy + More LLP PORT2 Bioenergy: Harvest residue for bioenergy More LLP: More longer-lived products (panels particularly in phase 1) Restricted Harvest: No old growth harvest PORT2: Portfolio that maximizes domestic mitigation (forest sector mitigation + domestic displacement) Source: Xu Z., C. Smyth, T. Lemprière, G. Rampley, W.A. Kurz. 2017. Climate change mitigation in British Columbia s forest sector: biophysical impacts and economic implications.
Source: Dugan et al., in preparation Examples of mitigation actions in forests and product sector evaluated against baseline Example: Wisconsin Strategy Description Residues Increase harvest residues collected for bioenergy from 29% to 70%. 44 Harvest for Bioenergy Extend rotation + LLP HWP: More LLP HWP: More Bioenergy Increase harvest by 10% / year - all for bioenergy production. Reduce harvest by 10% / year and increase min. harvest age by 10 years. Increase proportion of wood use for long-lived products (LLP) by 5% at expense of paper products. Increase the proportion of harvested wood for LPP at expense of paper products. Increase the proportion of harvested wood for bioenergy at expense of LLP.
Source: Dugan et al., in preparation 45 Cumulative mitigation (2015-2050), regional study, Wisconsin positive values = mitigation relative to baseline (Mt CO 2 e) Mitigation by component 1. Shifting wood use to long-lived products has no impact on forest C but increases 4 HWP pools and substitution benefits 3 1 2 2. Shifting wood use to bioenergy increases HWP emission, only partly off-set by substitution of fossil emissions. 3. Increased harvest for bioenergy reduces forest C, increases HWP emissions which are only partly off-sets by substitution. 4. Extend rotation length increases forest sink (reduced emissions), reduced harvest plus more LLP lowers HWP emissions, and increases emissions from other sectors (negative displacement).