Member Economy Report Current Status of Gas Industry in Japan Ryu Nishida General Manager, International Relations Department November 19, 2014 GASEX2014, Hong Kong
Table of contents 2 1. Japan s Energy Situation 2. Overview of Japan s Gas Industry
3 1. Japan s Energy Situation
General Information on Japan 4 Basic data Real GDP & GDP growth rates Land area 377,900 sq km Real GDP ( tn) 800 GDP growth rate (%) 4 Population 127 M 700 3 Total exports Total imports 69.8 tn 81.2 tn 600 500 400 2 1 0 Trade balance - 11,4 tn 300-1 LNG imports 87.7 Mt 200-2 (FY 2013) 7.3 tn 100-3 0 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13-4 Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan Statistical Yearbook; Cabinet Office, Annual Report on National Accounts; Ministry of Finance, Trade Statistics of Japan; IEEJ, Energy Economy Handbook
Primary Energy Supply [million KLOE] 600 500 Primary energy supply : Natural Gas: Energy self-sufficiency: share of natural gas 537.6 million KLOE 131.6 million KLOE 8.7% (including nuclear) 30% 25% 4.0% 3.2% 0.7% Renewables (biomass 2.1%) Hydro Nuclear 400 20% 24.5% Natural gas 300 15% 23.4% Coal 200 10% 100 5% 44.3% Petroleum 0 0% '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 Sources: Calculated from Agency for Natural Resources (METI), FY 2012 Energy Supply and Demand Report and Energy White Paper 5
エネルギー源別推移 Final energy consumption Final Energy Consumption Natural gas (mainly city gas) FY1990 FY2012 CAGR FY1990 FY2012 CAGR 359 M KLOE 370 M KLOE + 0.15% 17.8 M KLOE (5%) 39.8M KLOE (11%) + 3.71% [million KLOE] 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 CAGR: +1.04% CAGR: -1.39% Others Heat supply Coal Petroleum Electricity 50 0 '90 '95 00 '05 '10 Sources: Calculated from Agency for Natural Resources (METI), FY 2012 Energy Supply and Demand Report 6 Natural gas
LNG Imports LNG import volume Total LNG imports [FY2013]: 87.5 million tons LNG import by gas utilities [FY2013] 24.3 million ton (28% of total imports) [million tons] 90 80 70 Sharp increase due to nuclear shutdown [million tons] 25 20 0.65 0.72 0.86 2.79 Algeria Yemen Eq. Guinea 60 50 40 30 20 Power Utilities 15 10 5 0.31 1.56 1.83 3.35 6.21 1.60 8.44 Nigeria USA (Alaska) Oman Qatar Russia (Sakhalin) Australia Brunei 10 0 Gas Utilities '95 '00 '05 '10 '13 0 4.51 FY1995 2.56 FY2013 Malaysia Indnesia Source: JGA, Gas Business Handbook, 2014 7
Methane Hydrate Development Steps toward commercial gas extraction Phase 1 2001-08 Basic research Resource survey in Japan s EEZ On-shore production tests in Canada Offshore production tests World first gas extraction from ocean floor methane hydrate (March 2013) Estimated resource areas Total size of resource areas: 122K sq km Sea of Japan Phase 2 2009-15 Long-term on-shore production tests in Alaska East China Sea Nankai Trough Pacific Ocean Phase 3 2016-18 Preparations for commercial extraction Comprehensive evaluation (e.g. economic viability, environmental impact) Source::JOGMEC Source: Research Consortium for Methane Hydrate Resources in Japan (MH21) 8
9 Japan s 4 th Strategic Energy Plan BASIC VIEWPOINT 3E + S = Energy Security Economic Efficiency + Safety Environment TARGET Build a "multilayered and diversified flexible energy supplydemand structure" Creation of a multilayered supply structure with various energy sources Promotion of a resilient energy supply structure POLICY DIRECTIONS Promotion of new entrants into the energy market through structural reforms Creation of an efficient energy market through providing various options to end users Improvement of self efficiency by developing and introducing indigenous energies Contribution to global warming countermeasures
Positions of Energy Sources in Strategic Energy Plan 10 Nuclear Position in the 4 th Strategic Energy Plan Important base-load power source Reduce dependence as much as possible Policy directions Possible restart of Sendai Nuclear Power Plant early next year followed by others Renewables Position in the 4 th Strategic Energy Plan Important diverse and promising domestic low carbon energy source Policy directions Review of feed-in tariff (FIT) program launched in 2012 Coal Position in the 4 th Strategic Energy Plan Important base-load power source with excellent supply stability and economics Reduce environmental burden Policy directions Development of advanced coal fired power generation - IGCC (Integrated Coal Gasification Combined Cycle) - A-USC (Advanced Ultra Supercritical Power Plant) Practical realization of CCS after 2020 Impact on future natural gas demand
11 Position of Natural Gas in Strategic Energy Plan Natural Gas Position in the 4 th Strategic Energy Plan Important energy source with expanded role Fuel for intermediate-load power station Characteristics Least carbon intensive among fossil fuels Low geopolitical risk thanks to disperse reserves Policy directions Procurement cost reduction - Diversification of supply source, contractual terms, etc. Steady energy shift toward wider natural gas use Sophisticated and efficient natural gas use - Diversified application (distributed generation, cogeneration, etc.)
12 Gas Market Liberalization Liberalization of gas retail market Threshold for liberalization (Annual contracted volume) Share of gas demand in liberalized market 1995 1999 2004 2007 2017? 2 mil. m 3 1 mil. m 3 0.5 mil. m 3 0.1 mil. m 3 46% 50% 54% 61% Full Liberalization? Share of new market entrants 2 M m 3 1 M m 3 0.5 M m 3 0.1 M m 3
13 2. Overview of Japan s Gas Industry
Overview of Japan s gas industry Gas utilities service areas Approximately 5% of land area is covered by 207 gas utilities Service areas of private gas utilities Service areas of public gas utilities Source : JGA, Gas Energy News 14
15 Overview of Japan s gas industry Each vertically integrated gas utility is responsible for entire process of gas value chain from gas procurement to distribution to sale of city gas Ocean-going vessel LNG import terminal High-pressure transmission pipeline Power plant Liquefaction facilities Domestic vessel Pressure control room LNG receiving Terminal (Secondary) Customers LNG container train LNG tanker truck Domestic natural gas LNG satellite terminal
16 Diversification for Stable & Competitive NG Procurement Supplier diversification New suppliers (Queensland, North America, East Africa, etc.) Pricing diversification US/European gas price-indexed formula Futures market and Asian hub price Delivery mode diversification LNG vessel fleet International pipeline Resource diversification LNG from unconventional gas Methane hydrate US LNG Freeport (2018-) Osaka Gas: 2.2 Mt/year Cove Point (2017-) Tokyo Gas: 1.4 Mt/year Cameron (2018-) Tokyo Gas: 0.52 Mt/year Toho Gas: 0.3 Mt/year Queensland LNG QCLNG (2015-) Tokyo Gas: 1.2 Mt/year New Addition to LNG vessel Fleet Tokyo Gas: 2 x SPB type vessels Osaka Gas: 2 x Peapod vessels
Sales Volume and Number of Customers Wider use of gas in the industrial sector has been the driver of sales volume increase [billion m 3 ] 40 35 30 Gas sales volume Number of customer [FY 2013] Sales : 36.7 billion m 3 Customers : 29.5 million [million] 40 35 30 25 20 Industrial 25 20 54% 15 10 Commercial and others 15 10 20% 5 0 Residential 0 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 Source : JGA 17 5 26%
Natural gas 18 Competitive environment surrounding natural gas Residential use Gas cooking stove High-efficiency water heater, fuel cell Floor heating, gas fan heater Fuel cell, Eco-will (gas CHP for residential use) Absorption type, GHP Gas fueled boiler Cooking Water heating Space heating Electricity Commercial and industrial use Air conditioning Heat Induction heating cooker CO 2 refrigerant heat pump, electric or kerosene boiler Electric air conditioner, electric or kerosene space heater Grid power, Renewable energy Electric heat pump, ice thermal-storage Oil fueled boiler Other energies (electricity, LPG, oil, etc.) Gas CHP Electricity Grid power, Renewable energy
19 JGA s Gas Vision 2030 : Toward wider use of natural gas Major Targets 2012 2030 Cogeneration 4.82 GW 6x 30 GW Gas air conditioning (peak shaving effect) 14 GW equivalent 2x 26 GW Equivalent Industrial heat demand (market share) Expected Effects Stabilize Power Supply 15% of total power demand Peak shaving effect: 38-43 GW Save Energy 826 KLOE (2% of total final energy consumption) 11.5% 2x 25% Residential fuel cell (units) 5.3 mil. 40,000 125x (incl. LPG fueled) Natural gas vehicle (units) 40,000 12x 500,000 Reduce CO2 Emission 62 mil. ton - CO2 (5% of total CO2 emission) Boost Economy CAPEX: 1.2-1.5 trillion yen Source: Japan Gas Association, Expand Natural Gas Use to 2030 Revised since October 27, 2011 release
20 Wider use of cogeneration systems [GW] 30 Cumulative installed generation capacity 30 GW 25 20 For sales to grid (10 GW) 15 10 For own use (15.1 GW) 10 GW 5 0 Existing: 4.9 GW as of 2013 10 15 20 25 30 Performance upgrades and incentive measures are essential to achieve this aggressive target
21 Wider use of residential fuel cell Roadmap toward popularization [million units] 6 5.3 m units 5 4 3 2 Introduction Period Termination of current government subsidy Pre-popularization Period 1.4 m units Popularized 1 0.1 m units 0 '10 '15 '20 '25 '30
Smart Energy Network centered around Gas Cogeneration System Wider adoption of renewable and unutilized energy sources Diversification of transportation fuel Wind power generation Biomass power generation Photovoltaic systems (heat and electricity) Grid power network Natural gas pipelines Natural gas stations Hydrogen stations Natural gas vehicles Fuel cell vehicles Fuel cells Gas cogeneration Enhanced energy security Wider adoption of distributed energy systems Gas air conditioning Energy-saving/Low-carbon energy management Peak load mitigation, energy conservation & carbon reduction Securing energy supply to priority facilities in case of disasters Gas cogeneration Gas cogeneration Area-wide heat sharing via heat supply network 22 The Japan Gas Gas Association
Fatalities from city gas related accidents Death toll from City gas related accidents in Japan has declined from 100+ to almost ZERO in 35 years [Fatalities] 120 100 Production related Distribution related Appliance related 80 60 40 No fatalities in 2012 20 0 '75 '80 '85 '90 25 '95 '00 '05 '10 Source: JGA 23
24 Thank you for your attention.