The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Bill Colton December 9, 2014 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Energy Outlook Development 100 countries 15 demand sectors trade flows 20 fuel types technology & policy 2
Energy Measures and Units 1 log = 24,500 BTU 1 gallon gasoline = 5 logs 1 gallon gasoline = 36 kwh 13,000 AA batteries 4,000 smart phone batteries 3
2010 U.S. Daily Per Capita Energy Demand Commercial Buildings Household Use 6 7 Commercial Transportation Personal Transportation 6 34 Total Industrial 4 11 7 4
2010 World Daily Energy Demand U.S. Per Capita 34 7 World Per Capita 9 1.7 Times 7 billion people = ~12 billion gallons per day 260 MBDOE 525 QUADS 5
Global Progress Drives Demand Population Billion GDP Trillion 2010$ Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs Energy Savings Rest of World Key Growth India China OECD* *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 6
Standards of Living Increase in the Non OECD 2040 GDP per Capita PPP 2005$k 2010 *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 7
The Middle Class Continues to Grow Middle Class per The Brookings Institution Billion People Rest of World Key Growth Turkey Iran China China Egypt India Mexico Nigeria Saudi Arabia Thailand India Brazil Indonesia OECD* South Africa *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 8
Electricity Generation Leads Growth Primary Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs 25 40 10 Electricity Generation Industrial Transportation Res/Comm 9
Electricity Generation Leads Growth Primary Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs 25 40 10 Non OECD OECD Electricity Generation Industrial Transportation Res/Comm 10
Transportation 11
Transportation Demand Sector Demand MBDOE Rail Marine Aviation Heavy Duty Light Duty 12
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet and Demand 2040 LDV Fleet Million World LDV Demand MBDOE Improved Standard of Living Population Growth Base Fleet Energy Savings Improved Standard of Living Population Growth *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 13
Light Duty Vehicles Fleet by Type Million 14
Heavy Duty Transportation Heavy Duty Demand by Region MBDOE Heavy Duty Demand by Fuel MBDOE Other Gas Rest of World Key Growth India Diesel China OECD* Gasoline *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 15
Industrial 16
Industrial Demand Industrial Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs Paint Plastics Fertilizer Chemical Heavy Industry Energy Industry Other Liquid Fuels Steel Coal Agriculture Automobiles Textiles Natural Gas Lubricants Asphalt 17
Electricity Generation 18
Electricity Demand Electricity Demand Thousand TWh Electricity Demand by Region Thousand TWh 2014 Improved Standard of Living China Population Growth Industrial Growth Key Growth United States Europe India Base Demand 19
Fuel Choices for Power Generation Relative benefit/impact Coal Coal w/ CCS Natural Gas Nuclear Wind Solar Photovoltaic Construction Cost Electricity Cost Land Use Water Requirements CO 2 Emissions Non-CO 2 Emissions Waste Products Availability Flexibility More Favorable Less Favorable Source: EPRI, Generation Technology Assessment 20
Electricity Generation Fuel by Region Quadrillion BTUs 10 25 40 Other Solar Wind Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Key Growth *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 21
Global Demand 2040 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 0.8% Average Growth / Yr. 2010-2040 2010 1.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.5% 2.3% 5.8% 1.8% 22
CO 2 Emissions 23
World Emissions CO 2 Emissions by Region Billion metric tonnes Emissions per Capita Tonnes / Person Rest of World 10 Key Growth 40 India China OECD* *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 24
Supply 25
Liquids Supply World Supply by Type MBDOE Crude & Condensate Resource Estimates Trillion Barrels Biofuels Other Natural Gas Liquids Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater New Conventional C&C Development Conventional Crude & Condensate Developed Conventional Crude & Condensate Source: USGS and IEA historical estimates 26
Liquids Trade Balance by Region MBDOE Demand Biofuels Other Natural Gas Liquids Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater Conventional C&C Development 10 20 30 40 Conventional Crude & Condensate North America 27
Liquids Trade Balance by Region MBDOE Biofuels Other Natural Gas Liquids Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater Conventional C&C Development Conventional Crude & Condensate Demand 10 20 30 40 North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific 28
Gas Trade Balance by Region BCFD Unconventional Production Conventional Production Demand 10 20 30 40 North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific 29
Energy Trade Indicative trade flows 30
Energy Trade Liquids Demand MBDOE Gas Demand BCFD Imports/Exports LNG Pipeline Local Production Local Production 31
Developing Economies Dominate Growth Demand by Region Quadrillion BTUs Rest of World Key Growth India China OECD* *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 32
Energy Use Evolves Over Time Demand by Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil Coal Biomass 33
The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 34