Future Opportunities for Coal Power Science, Regulations, & Technology
Energy Crisis!
Comparing U.S. Energy Reserves 6,000 Abundant Resources Relate to Stable Prices 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 US Coal Reserves US Gas Reserves US Oil Reserves (in quadrillion BTU s) Source: EIA, 2000
Delivered Fuel Cost U.S. Coal s Stable Pricing Makes it Ideal for Generation Delivered $ / MM Btu 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 Delivered Fuel Cost For Generation Oil Natural Gas 2.00 1.00 Coal 0.00 Dec 98 Mar 99 Jun 99 Sep 99 Dec 99 Mar 00 Jun 00 Sep 00 Dec 00 Mar 01 Jun 01 Sep 01 Dec 01 Mar 02 Jun 02 Sep 02 Dec 02 Mar 03 Source: EIA Electric Power Monthly, February 2003
Louisiana Costs - 2003 Fuel Cost Coal Natural Gas Oil $1.34 mmbtu $5.50 mmbtu $5.84 mmbtu Average electric cost in the state is $0.069/kwh 6% below the national average.
Louisiana Electric Generation Mix Natural Gas 45% Coal-based 26% Nuclear 18% Renewable 4% Oil 3%
Environmental Progress 5 Increasingly Clean Power 4 3 2 4.37 SO2 NOx PM 10 1 0 1.01 0.85 1.07 0.43 0.38 0.47 0.02 0.02 1970 2001 2010 Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Department of Energy, 2002
2003 Average State Coal Fired SO2 Emission Rates 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 2003 Average US Coal Rate- 0.99#SO2/MMBtu MD PA OH NH NY DE GA NC NJ IN VA WV TN KY AL SC MA MI ND WI LA IL FL TX MS IA MO SD KS OK NE NV OR MN AR CO WY NM AZ CT MT UT WA Source: EPA 2003 CEMS Data
2003 Average State Coal Fired NOx Emission Rates 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 2003 Average US Coal Rate 0.37#NOx/MMBtu SD NJ OH NM TN FL WV MD ND MN KS OR NE NV IN SC KY IA MT NC VA MO MS AL UT AZ WY OK CO WI LA PA DE MA WA MI NY AR IL GA NH TX CT Source: EPA 2003 CEMS Data
Regional Transport Rule 1-hr Serious Area Attainment Date OTC NO x Trading NO x SIPs Due Designate areas for 8-hr Ozone NAAQs Section 126 NO x Controls 1-hr Severe Area Attainment Date NO x SIP Call Reduc tions Marginal 8-hr Ozone NAAQS Attainment Date 8-hr Ozone Attainment Demonstration SIPs due Assess Effectiveness of Regional Ozone Strategies Possible Regional NO x Reductions? (SIP call II) Moderate 8-hr Ozone NAAQS Attainment Date Serious 8-hr Ozone NAAQS Attainment Date 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Phase II Acid Rain Compliance Proposed Utility MACT Mercury Determination Designated Areas for Fine PM NAAQS Haze Sec. 309 SIPS due Clean Air Interstate Rule to Address SO/NO x Emissions for Fine PM NAAQS and Regional Haze Final Utility Mercury Rule Compliance with Utility MACT New Fine PM NAAQS Implementation Plans Regional Haze SIPs due Latest Attainment date for Fine PM NAAQS Additional Hg regulation under 112(d) and (f) Compliance for BART Sources Compliance for BART sources under the Trading Program Second Regional Haze SIPs due
Proposed Federal Clean Air Interstate Rule Further Reductions Required by Texas by 2015: SO 2 70% reduction NO x 65% reduction
Clean Air Interstate Rule NOx 68,498 tons 2003 39,444 tons 2015 SO2 119,930 tons 2003 41,976 tons 2015
Proposed Utility Mercury Reduction Rule MACT - Up to 90% reduction by 2008 Facility specific control Cap & Trade - 70% reduction by 2018 Market-based approach Reduce from current 48 tons to 15 tons Estimated to save consumers $8 Billion - 2020
Foreign Contribution Fact: Wildfires, prescribed burns, and crop burning alone emit some 800 tons of mercury each year globally National Center for Atmospheric Research Fact: 50% of the mercury found in the U.S. is from foreign sources U.S. EPA Fact: The world s oceans contains millions of tons of mercury which impacts the mercury in the atmosphere National Center for Atmospheric Research
Sources of Mercury Emissions of me rcury from U.S. coal-fire d powe r plants are small compared to global emissions sources Only 1% of total world emissions comes from U.S. power plants 2% U.S. manmade, non power plant sources 42% non-u.s. man-made sources 16% natural sources (biomass burning) 39% natural sources (oceans and volcanoes)
Global Mercury Deposition in the U.S. Percent of mercury deposition that originates outside of the U.S. Source: EPRI
Mercury Facts local deposition Given the current scientific understanding of the environmental fate and transport of this element, it is not possible to quantify how much of the methylmercury in fish consumed by the U.S. population is contributed by U.S. emissions relative to other sources of Hg (such as natural sources and reemissions from the global pool). EPA proposed rule
Local Deposition Facts: Only 4 7% of mercury is deposited locally, according to research by the Brookhaven National Laboratory Only a small percentage of the mercury would be deposited nearby as particles fall to earth, while the vast majority drifts to greater distances in the atmosphere. Hans Friedli, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Louisiana s Mercury Emissions Fact: Coal-based power plants in Louisiana emit less than half a ton of mercury U.S. EPA Fact: This equates to less than 0.01 of 1% of the total global mercury emissions U.S. EPA Fact: Louisiana coal-fueled power plants emit 265 lbs. of oxidized mercury, with the remaining 740 lbs. in an elemental form U.S. EPA
Health Concerns Fact: The national Health and Nutrition Survey, which measured actual mercury levels in women and children did not find anyone approaching the lowest level that would have been associated with any measurable health effect due to mercury U.S. Center for Disease Control People consume far higher levels of PCBs and other persistent environmental chemicals in other foods, including beef, poultry, and dairy products. - National Academy of Science
Benefits of Fish The American Heart Association predicts about 250,000 people die from sudden heart attacks each year. If 40 percent of these people ate more fish, which contains the beneficial omega fatty acids, 100,000 people would increase their odds of avoiding sudden death. Scaring the public away from eating fish can in itself be a health concern.
Capturing Mercury is Difficult Hypothetical Example Houston Astrodome filled with 30 billion ping-pong balls 30 green mercury balls Find and remove 27 green balls for 90% Hg capture EPA has said So, is technology capable of getting a 90-percent reduction of mercury from coal-fired power plants in the near future? EPA s answer is NO! Houston Astrodome
Cost to Control Fact: The estimated cost of removing mercury from a power plant is $70,000 per pound U.S. EPA Fact: A Tennessee Valley Authority study compared the cost of removing mercury versus other emissions: Sulfur Dioxide $200 a ton Nitrogen Oxide $2,000 a ton Mercury $200,000,000 a ton
FutureGen Energy Renaissance One billion dollar, 10-year demonstration project to create world s first coal-based, zero-emission electricity and hydrogen plant President Bush, February 27, 2003
IGCC Technology in Early Commercialization U.S. Plants in CCT Program Wabash River 1996 Powerplant of Year Award* Achieved 95% availability Tampa Electric 1997 Powerplant of Year Award First-dispatch power generator Nation s First Commercial- Scale IGCC Plants, Each Achieving > 95% Sulfur Removal > 90% NO x Reductions x *Power Magazine
FutureGen Project Concept
Sequestration: A Key Objective FutureGen will: Test new technologies to capture CO 2 at power plant Inject CO 2 into geologic formations Measure and monitor to verify permanence of storage Enhanced Oil Recovery And/Or Geologic Sequestration CO 2 Pipeline
Example: Weyburn CO 2 EOR Project Approximately 650 production and water injection wells on a 70-square mile oil field operated by EnCana Resources. A 20-year enhanced oil recovery (EOR) project begun in 2000 using CO 2 from a 200-mile CO 2 pipeline from Dakota Gasification Plant $20.5 million cooperative agreement with Canadian Federal and Saskatchewan Provincial Governments. Provides for 130 million barrels of oil and storage of about 20 million metric tons of CO 2 over 20-year lifetime. U.S. (DOE), EU, Japan, Alberta Government, private companies (e.g., BP, Chevron-Texaco, etc.) have joined, providing another $20 million. IEA CO 2 Monitoring and Storage Project coordinated by 20 research organizations in the U.S., UK, Canada, France, and Italy.
FutureGen... Produce electricity and hydrogen from coal using advanced technology Emit virtually no air pollutants Capture and permanently sequester CO 2 Addresses three Presidential initiatives: Hydrogen Clear Skies Climate Change
The Future is Bright Randy Eminger Vice President South Region Center for Energy and Economic Development (806) 359-5520 reminger@ceednet.org