International Workshop on Climate Change and Sustainable Development 7-8 April, 2006, New Delhi, India Integrating Climate Change Concern into Sustainable Development Strategy- A Case Study of China Ying Chen Research Centre for Sustainable Development (RCSD) Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)
Outline Climate change and it impacts in China Energy, mitigation and sustainable development in China Challenges New goals Policies & measures Effectiveness & potentials
Climate is Changing and Impacts are unevenly felt.
Changes of annual average temperature in China (1951-2001)
Changes of annual rainfall in China (1956-2002)
Adverse impacts of climate change on natural and human systems Land degradation Biodiversity losses Increase of weather-related disasters, particularly floods and droughts Decreased water availability Reduction in potential crop yields Coastal zones and marine systems Increase in the risks for human settlements and human health Increased energy demand for space cooling
Economic losses resulted from weather-related disasters (1949-2004) 300 Economic losses (billion RMB) 250 200 150 100 50
Flood, August 1999 Wuzhou,Guangxi, 2 July 2005 Heilongjiang, 11 June 2005 Nanning airport, Guangxi, 2001 Houses collapsing in flood Aug. 1999
Typhoon, July 2005, in Zhejiang province Summer of 2005, in Nanjing, Jiangsu province Drought in Hainan province Water pollution in Yellow River Access to safety drinking water
Building adaptive capacity These impacts are results of both climatic and nonclimatic factors, which are generally difficult to quantify. Assessment methodology and tools have to be improved to get a better understanding. Adaptation is a necessary strategy at all level. There is an urgent need for developing countries to build adaptive capacity. Some autonomous adaptation measures have been demonstrated effective. More efforts and necessary resources needed to build adaptive.
Energy, Mitigation and Sustainable Development
Great Challenges China is in a accelerated process of industrialization and urbanization, shifting from labour-intensive to capital intensive phases. The energy demand has surged since 2002 when a new round of investment-driven economic growth began. The energy mix dominated by coal could not be shifted. Although currently the energy consumption and emission per capita are lower than world average level, China will loss the advantages soon. With increase of oil imported (40% in 2004), energy security concern is growing. Air pollution and acid rain are still sever environmental problems.
Energy intensity (tce/10000yuan) has decreased by 45% within 1990-2004 but increased since 2002 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.89 2.79 2.57 2.4 2.26 2.18 2.11 Equivalent to 700 Mtce of Energy saving, 1050 tons SO 2 and 440 MtC emissions reduction 2.0 1.5 1.92 1.71 1.6 1.51 1.47 1.45 1.5 1.58 1.0 0.5 0.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 GDP is Calculated with comparable price in 2000;
Increases of energy consumption, emissions, population and GDP (1990-2003) World China EU15 Japan Other Asian countries US Africa PE(PJ) 82963 22167 (1/4) 8435 3005 19430 14786 6848 GHGs emissions (MtCO 2 ) 4247.6 1463.4 (1/3) 196.1 188.6 1063.1 886.8 215.2 Population growth (million) 1022.3 153.2 (1/7) 16.8 4.1 414.2 40.9 225.3 GDP (b$2000) 9523.5 962.5 (1/10) 1816.9 768.3 791.5 3275.0 195.5
Distribution of Acid rain areas Failed to achieve the goal of 20% reduction by 2005 blow the level of 2000, set up by the Tenth Five-year Plan
Well known recipes Conservation Renewables Fuel switching Deployment and transfer of existing technologies Development of new technologies
Energy Intensity of Selected Energy- Intensive Products (1990-2004) Coal burned for power generation Comparable energy consumption of Steel Comparable energy consumption of cement Comprehensive energy consumption of Ethene Comprehensive energy consumption of ammonia synthesis (large scale) Unit 1990 2004 Reduced (%) g/kwh 427 376 11.9 kgce/t 997 702 29.6 kgce/t 201 157 21.9 kgce/t 1580 1004 36.5 kgce/t 1343 1184 11.8
National mid to long-term energy conservation plan (issued in Nov. 2004) To reduce energy intensity from 2.68 tce in 2002(1990 price) to 2.25 tce/10000 yuan by 2010, energy saving rate 2.2% per year, and further to 1.54 tce/10000 yuan by 2020, energy saving rate 3% per year; Specific energy saving targets for main energy intensive products main energy-consuming equipment Energy management system Priority sectors Industry, transport, buildings for commercial and residential use
Selected Key Energy Saving Projects Oil saving and alternatives These projects will produce 240 Mtce energy savings potentials. Waste heat recycling CHP Green Lighting Government energy saving Monitoring and technical service
The 11th Five-year Plan (2006-2010) Plan to reduce energy intensity 20% below 2005 level by 2010; Controlling CO2 emissions is for the first time specified as one of the tasks for the country over the next 5 years.
Top 1000 Program To monitor and guide 1010 large energy users selected from 9 sectors for energy efficiency improvement in 2004, each of them consumed over 0.18 Mtce and consumed 670 Mtce in total, 48% of industrial and 34% of the primary energy consumption in China. Series PAMs are under considerations including providing economic incentives 240 97 101 22 25 128 262 58 75 iron and steel non-ferrous metal coal power petro.and petrochem. chemicals construction materials texitile paper
Renewables development and nuclear power Law of Renewable Energy issued in Jan. 2005 Plan to increase the share of renewables in energy mix from the current 7% to 10% by 2010 and to 15% by 2020. Nuclear power is also an option, expected to reach 4% of electricity generation by 2025. Over 60,000 small scale hydropower stations in rural area 26 windfarms, 375MWe in 2000 Eco-building design and demonstration
A nation wide comprehensive campaign: building a resource-efficient and environment-friendly society Multi-stakeholders Participation Government, taking a leading role Industry: great potentials to be achieved NGOs: initiating projects advocating conservation Individuals: taking actions in daily life and exchanging experiences The media: raising public awareness
NGOs: 26 Energy Saving Action for Air Conditioner
3R- Reduction, Reuse and Recycling One-off consumables in hotel waste Food over-packed moon cake
Clean Development Fund (CDF)-the first carbon-driven fund in China Sources: charges on CERs from CDM projects, particularly HFC-23 projects 65% to be charged; Objectives: helping national wide actions to address climate change including, research and training for capacity building Mitigation & Adaptation Facilitating preparation of CDM project;
A long way to go International cooperation is of great importance to integrate climate change concerns into sustainable development strategy Capital assistance Technology transfer and cooperation Institutional capacity building, including policy instruments, perception, etc.
Implications of irreversibility of large investment and infrastructure construction