CANADA-NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR LABOUR MARKET AGREEMENT 2012-13 Annual Plan October 1, 2012
Purpose This annual plan defines the priorities, objectives and program and service investments under the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Labour Market Agreement (CA-NL LMA), for fiscal year 2012-2013. Programs and services offered under the CA-NL LMA in 2012-2013 are designed to: increase participation and labour force attachment among unemployed and low-skilled employed individuals; enhance recruitment, retention and development of a skilled workforce to improve competitiveness; strengthen human resource development and planning capacity among employers and partners; assist individuals impacted by the recent economic downturn in accessing supports they need to successfully transition into new jobs, occupations and industries; and support employers and communities in responding to downward industry adjustments and emerging opportunities. These programs and services will build on existing provincial resources, supports and strategic directions to increase access to a comprehensive, integrated and effective suite of labour market and training programs that will: help improve employment and training outcomes for individuals; increase access to the skilled, innovative workforce required to meet current and future labour demands; and help ensure all Newfoundlanders and Labradorians have full opportunity to participate in, and contribute to, a prosperous economy and society. Planning Process The 2012-13 LMA annual planning process was informed by an environmental scan, LMA program outcomes in 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2011-12, and consultations with partners as described in Appendix A: Consultation Processes. Environmental Scan: General Employment Trends and Economic Conditions Labour market indicators for 2011 showed continued labour market gains in the province following the economic downturn. Comparing 2011 to 2010, the provincial labour force increased to 258,000, and employment increased to 225,400 (with a corresponding participation rate and employment rate of 60.2% and 52.6%, respectively). The number of unemployed people decreased to 32,700 while the unemployment rate fell to 12.7%. 1 Data for the first five months of 2012 suggest that labour market conditions generally continue to improve in the province. On a year-to-date basis, employment averaged 221,500 during the first five months of 2012, an increase of 1.0% (or 2,180) compared to 219,320 during the first five months of 2011. Over the same period, the labour force averaged 257,300, an increase of 1.5% from 253,480 in 2011. The 1 Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada (CANSIM Table 282-0002). 2
unemployment rate increased slightly during this time period, however (by 0.5 percentage points, from 13.5% in the first five months of 2011 compared to 14.0% in the first five months of 2012). 2 Labour market indicators for 2012 (year-to-date) are consistent with recent forecasts which suggest that employment growth will continue into this year, but at a level lower than that observed in 2010 and 2011. According to the latest forecast from the Department of Finance (April 2012), employment in this province is expected to increase by 1.8% in 2012 (to 229,400) while the provincial unemployment rate is forecast to decrease only slightly to 12.3%. 3 The provincial outlook for Newfoundland and Labrador is also forecast to be positive over the medium to long term. Newfoundland and Labrador Labour Market Outlook 2020, (released by the Department of Advanced Education and Skills) projects that employment will grow by 8.2% to reach a peak of 302,173 people in 2015, followed by a decline of 5.1% from 2015 to 2020. The peak employment in 2015 reflects the impacts of major project developments while subsequent losses are the result of these projects ramping down after construction. Overall, it is projected that there will be net employment growth of 2.8% (or 7,700 new jobs) in the ten-year period between 2010 and 2020. 4 New job growth only presents a partial picture of future job opportunities in the province, however. In fact, it will be retirements that present the greatest employment opportunities in the years ahead. Outlook 2020 projects that almost 90% of the projected 70,000 job openings in Newfoundland and Labrador between 2011 and 2020 will result from attrition (approximately 62,000). Current labour force participation rates will likely have to increase significantly among many age groups to meet these anticipated demands. Furthermore, a rapidly changing and increasingly competitive global marketplace (in conjunction with technological advancements) will continue to increase skill demands and contribute to changing job duties. Outlook 2020, for example, projects that 66.7% of all job openings between 2011 and 2020 will be in Management occupations or will require some form of post-secondary education. 5 Provincial Labour Market Challenges Labour Shortages Over the medium to long term, labour shortages associated with population decline and aging are among the most significant labour market challenges facing Newfoundland and Labrador and most developed economies throughout the world. The impacts of population trends are more evident in Newfoundland and Labrador than elsewhere in Canada, however. Whereas most jurisdictions are facing the challenge of slowing population growth, this province has actually sustained considerable population decline over the past decade and now has one of the most rapidly aging populations in Canada (median age of 43.8 according to the 2011 Census, the highest median age in the country). 6 7 Furthermore, the provincial working-age population (15-64 years old) is projected to decline by 11.9% (over 41,000 people) between 2011 and 2025. 8 By 2025, there will potentially be five new labour force entrants (15-24 years old) for every eight potential retirees (55-64 years old), and almost 1/3 of the provincial population will be 60 years old or older. 2 Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada (CANSIM Table 282-0001). 3 Economics and Statistics Branch, Department of Finance (http://www.economics.gov.nl.ca/forecast/sel_2012_04.pdf). 4 Newfoundland and Labrador Labour Market Outlook 2020, Department of Advanced Education and Skills, 2011. 5 Ibid 6 Census 2011, Statistics Canada. 7 Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency 8 Economics and Statistics Branch, Department of Finance (http://www.economics.gov.nl.ca/pdf/popbyagemedium-web.pdf). 3
Historical inter-provincial migration and immigration trends are additional significant factors impacting population in Newfoundland and Labrador. In particular: The province has traditionally had a high rate of interprovincial out-migration, especially among youth. Over the past 20 years, the province has experienced a net loss of over 73,000 people; 80% of these interprovincial out-migrants have been young people15 to 29 years old. In the past several years, there have been demonstrated increases in the number of immigrants moving to the province, largely a result of a Provincial Immigration Strategy. While the Province has experienced successes with respect to the retention of newcomers nominated under its Provincial Nominee program, it still has one of the lowest rates of attraction and retention of immigrants. o In 2011, 682 newcomers settled in NL (including 274 newcomers nominated under the Provincial Nominee Program), an increase of 25% from the number of newcomers settling in NL in 2007, the year the Provincial Immigration Strategy was launched. 9 o In 2011, 274 individuals immigrated via the Provincial Nominee Program, an increase of 309% since the launch of the Provincial Immigration Strategy in 2007 when 67 individuals immigrated via the Provincial Nominee Program. 10 o A 2010 survey of Provincial Nominees who received their permanent residency prior to Sept 30, 2010 indicated that 81% remained in the Province. Although there have been some net migration increases in recent years, as of January 1, 2012, the provincial population was 511,036, virtually unchanged from January 1, 2011 (511,023). Outmigration among youth is still occurring in greater numbers compared to the rest of the provincial population, and continued increases in in-migration will be necessary to make up for losses over the previous two decades. Increasing Skills and Changing Job Demands A rapidly changing and increasingly competitive global marketplace, combined with the rapid pace of technological advancement, will continue to increase skill demands and contribute to changing job duties in the near to medium term. As already mentioned, it is projected that over 65% of all new jobs will require some form of post-secondary education (Outlook 2020, Department of Advanced Education and Skills). Current workforce literacy levels, particularly among older workers, will pose challenges in responding to these changing demands. These challenges are further exacerbated by the fact that NL continues to experience low participation rates in adult learning courses among its working-age population and among the lowest levels of employer investment in workforce development and training. Labour Force Adjustments Newfoundland and Labrador has a relatively higher dependency on traditional, primary resourcebased industries. Over the past decade, several of these industries have undergone significant adjustments in order to compete within an increasingly global marketplace. In context of continued competitive pressures, further retrenchment may be expected in some industries as firms continue to monitor their bottom line. However, impacts on workers can be expected to vary depending on the industry concerned. Compared to the rest of Canada, Newfoundland and Labrador has: among the highest proportion of its labour force living in rural areas of the province (48% versus 17% in Canada) 11 ; 9 Citizenship and Immigration Canada, Facts and Figures 2011 10 Newfoundland and Labrador Office of Immigration and Multiculturalism 4
among the highest proportion of seasonal/part-year workers in the country who tend to be older and have lower levels of formal education than the provincial workforce overall; and correspondingly lower average participation rates among more rural regions. Limited Human Resource Planning Capacity Among Employers Most of the province s businesses consist of small, or very small, employers - those with fewer than 100 employees - comprise 98% of all employers in the province. 12 These employers are dispersed throughout the province and many are currently experiencing labour and skill shortages, skills gaps and workforce recruitment and retention challenges. Yet these firms often have limited human resource capacity, especially in the area of workforce-workplace training that limits their ability to address these concerns and subsequently their capacity to find, keep and develop the skilled workers they need to increase productivity and compete. Under-Represented and Marginalized Groups Newfoundland and Labrador has a high proportion of under-represented or under-utilized workers. Many of these workers - including women, Aboriginal people, persons with disabilities, displaced workers, low-skilled workers, immigrants and older workers - often face employment barriers that limit their full participation. Other workers, including new graduates and apprentices, often face significant financial challenges as a result of high student debt loads or in establishing their first attachment to the labour market that they need to acquire further experience and certification. Together, these groups constitute a valuable but often untapped source of skilled labour. Priority Program Areas for 2012-13: The CA-NL LMA priority program areas for 2012-13 are designed to respond to the province s short-term challenges as well as to those over the medium to longer term. This includes investments to: increase participation and labour force attachment among unemployed and low-skilled employed individuals; enhance recruitment, retention and development of a skilled workforce to improve competitiveness; strengthen human resource development and planning capacity among employers and partners; increase access to a comprehensive, integrated and effective suite of labour market and training programs; and assist individuals, employers and communities impacted by industry adjustments. Intended Clients 2012-13 program investments under the CA-NL LMA are designed to support: Unemployed individuals who are not eligible for Employment Insurance, such as: (i) social assistance recipients; (ii) immigrants; (iii) persons with disabilities; (iv) older workers; (v) youth; (vi) Aboriginal peoples; 11 Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada (CANSIM Table 282-0119). 12 Business Register, Statistics Canada, December 2011 (retrieved from Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency website, http://www.stats.gov.nl.ca/statistics/trade/pdf/br_nl_size_2011.pdf). 5
and (vii) new entrants and re-entrants to the labour market; and (viii) unemployed individuals previously self-employed. Employed individuals who are low skilled. This includes employed individuals who do not have a high school diploma or a recognized certification or who have low levels of literacy and essential skills. Service Delivery For 2012-13, delivery of CA-NL LMA programs, services and supports will be provided through government departments and third-party agencies. Available Funding Investments totaling $17,311,800 have been identified for 2012-13. Targets/Results Programs and services supported by funding under the CAN-NL LMA will benefit approximately 2,500 clients in 2012-13. Activity Plan Specific program priorities and funding allocations are provided on the following two pages. 6
Targeted Programs by Objective Annual Total LMA Objective: Increasing participation and labour force attachment among unemployed and low-skilled $3,412,785 employed individuals Literacy Supports and Services Expand and enhance access to adult literacy and essential skills programming, this includes support for unemployed, non-ei eligible individuals and low-skilled workers to access support allowances while participating in Adult Basic Education (ABE) Level I courses $864,080 Expand the Incentive program Successful Transition to Training Scholarships - for eligible individuals who graduate from ABE and go on to pursue post-secondary education Fund implementation of initiatives under the Newfoundland and Labrador Strategic Literacy Plan Employment Development Supports and Services Expand access to employment development programming to provide eligible unemployed individuals with a range of supports and services to assist them prepare for, find and maintain employment $723,822 Job Skills Support employed low-skilled individuals to access training and certification necessary to maintain or advance their employment $482,548 Youth Connect Provide an alternate support model that combines intensive counseling services with interventions to enhance the employability, education and labour market attachment of youth in order to reduce participants Income Support use and dependency $652,335 Labour Market Integration of Immigrants and Entrepreneurial Coordinating Services Expand access to labour market integration supports and services for immigrants $490,000 Operate an internship initiative providing work placements with local employers Promote entrepreneurship as an option for employment among newcomers, including access to advice and support throughout the establishment process Targeted Wage Subsidy Program for Persons with Disabilities Expand targeted wage subsidies to assist unemployed, EI eligible and non-ei eligible persons with disabilities to integrate into the labour market. $200,000 LMA Objective: Enhancing recruitment, retention and development of a skilled workforce to improve $8,328,670 competitiveness Workplace Skills Enhancement Program Provide workforce development supports and services to assist small and medium-sized business improve the skills of their workforce, attract and retain employees, and become more competitive $2,100,000 Targeted Supports for Apprentices Support individuals in skilled trades occupations acquire training and occupational certification to continue employment or qualify as a certified journey person $3,099,920 Pilot a mentorship incentive and mentorship development initiative with participating employers Implement an awards and recognition program for employers who train apprentices to journeypersons status Continue delivery of a wage subsidy program, targeting placements of apprentices with Newfoundland and Labrador employers Graduate Opportunities Internship Program Provides internships and targeted graduate recruitment for recent graduates who find it difficult to find employment in their field of study due to a lack of experience. $500,000 Youth Internships This initiative develops and implements a range programs and policies to support youth as they prepare to enter the workforce in Newfoundland and Labrador. $2,000,000 Try the Trades Employer-directed work experience / mentoring pilot program to help attract unemployed and under-employed individuals, particularly youth, to occupations in the Commercial Construction sector. $628,750 LMA Objective: Strengthen human resource development and planning capacity among employers and $1,577,670 partners Transition Supports and Services and Reserve Funding for previously funded pilot initiatives created to respond to industry adjustments. $1,577,670 7
LMA Objective: Increase access to comprehensive, integrated and effective labour market and training $3,992,675 services Program and Service Promotion and Awareness $3,992,675 IT System Integration LMA Implementation, including monitoring & evaluation TOTAL 2012-13 LMA Investment 17,311,800 8
Appendix A - Consultation Processes The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador regularly consults with a broad array of industry, employer, community, special interest, the general public and client groups to inform policy and budget priorities and to ensure programs and services are effective and relevant, and will continue to do so throughout the six-year period of the CA-NL Labour Market Agreement. Examples of consultation activities that have informed the development of the CA NL Labour Market Agreement and the annual planning process to date include: The Labour Market Committee of the Strategic Partnership Council: This is a tripartite forum involving business, labour and government to identify and respond to the province s human resource requirements and labour market challenges and opportunities. The LMC is an active participant in ongoing LMA and labour market policy discussions. Interdepartmental consultation: Partner departments to the Agreement (HRLE, Education, and INTRD) are engaged in an ongoing consultation and dialogue on LMA, priorities, activities and investments. In addition, they participate in and share information on labour market research initiatives ongoing in their departments. Released in July 2011, the Newfoundland and Labrador Labour Market - Outlook 2020 contributed to a comprehensive updating of the Labour Market Outlook for the province which helped shape the labour market challenges section of the LMA annual plan. The 2012-13 annual plan also benefited from ongoing strategic planning and information sharing with key partners as part of normal program and policy development, including the following: community groups; employers; regional development agencies; labour organizations; business and industry associations; educational institutions; student groups; municipalities; federal government departments; and other provincial departments. Findings from other provincial government consultations, entities and initiatives that also helped shape the LMA priorities include, but are not limited to: Regional Councils of the Rural Secretariat and Economic Zone Boards; Provincial Poverty Reduction Strategy ; Immigration Strategy; Coordinating Committee for the Skills Task Force; Regional Diversification Strategy, and Strategic Northern Development Plan 9