Food Security and World Changes and Trends since 1992 Julian Adams Asia Coordinator, Program for Biosafety Systems University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USA Bangkok January 10 2012 1 Demographic Changes ~7 billion in 2011 ~ 9 billion by 2050 40% Increase in Asia Bangkok January 10 2012 2 1
Demographic Changes Nearly one billion are food insecure One billion malnourished children under 5 years of age in Asia in 2000 Over 90% of future population growth will occur in developing countries Competition for resources is increasingly global Bangkok January 10 2012 3 Future food needs FAO estimates that Food Production will have to increase 70% while combating poverty and hunger Source: FAO How to Feed the World in 2050, Rome 2009 Bangkok January 10 2012 4 2
Challenges to meet this goal I. Competition from Biofuels and Biomass demand II. Dietary Changes III. Availability of Arable Land IV. Water Scarcity V. Climate Change Bangkok January 10 2012 5 I. Biofuels Annual World Production liters x 10 6 Sharply Increasing Biofuel Production diversion food/feed into biofuels Bangkok January 10 2012 6 3
I. Biomass Biomass energy 77 % World renewal energy Sharp Increase in World Biomass demand, e.g. South Korea: 250 x increase in next 10 years As a consequence Biomass plantations may also compete for the best lands with food crops, adversely affecting local food security and smallholder farming. Where biomass production is for export, no improvement in local energy security Source: Cotula, Finnegan & MacQueen, 2011 IIED Bangkok January 10 2012 7 II. Dietary Changes Calorie/Food Intake has been increasing 3500 3000 Kcal/ person/ day 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 East Asia South Asia 1965 1975 1985 1998 2015 2030 Source: FAO Bangkok January 10 2012 8 4
II. Dietary Changes 70 60 2030 50 Kg/ person/ year 40 30 20 10 1965 1998 2030 1998 1965 Increase in Meat Consumption Source: FAO East Asia South Asia Bangkok January 10 2012 9 II. Dietary Changes Income Growth in Developing Countries Increased demand for high valued food, principally meat, fish 1 kg meat requires ~ 3 kg grain ~ 16,000 liters water 1 kg wheat requires ~1,300 liters water Bangkok January 10 2012 10 5
III. Land Availability Limited Potential for cropland expansion in Asia, irrespective of conservation, water and other environmental issues: Source: FAO Bangkok January 10 2012 11 III. Land Availability Annual Growth Rates (%) 2000-2050 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5 Latin America & Caribbean Area Expansion East & South Asia & Pacific Yield Improvement (Irrigation + Fertilizer + New Varieties) Sub Saharan Africa Central & West Asia & North Africa North America & Europe Projected Sources of Cereal Production Growth 2000-2050 Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections, September 2007 Bangkok January 10 2012 12 6
III. Land Availability Land loss due to irrigation practices Pakistan 11% of arable land lost due to salinization from irrigation Bangkok January 10 2012 13 IV. Water scarcity In 1995, about 1.8 billion people were living in areas experiencing severe water stress In 2025, about two-thirds of the world s population about 5.5 billion people are expected to live in areas facing moderate to severe water stress Bangkok January 10 2012 14 7
V. Climate Change Compounding the Problem The Data The Consequences a. Rise in Sea Levels b. Increased unpredictability c. Change in Growing Season Length d. Yield Changes e. Price Increases f. Impact on Trade Bangkok January 10 2012 15 V. Climate Change: the data Global Warming Predicted increase in surface temperature in 2090 Source: IFPRI Bangkok January 10 2012 16 8
V. Climate Change: the data Rising levels of C and CO 2 Source: Adapted from Karl, Melillo and Peterson, 2009 Bangkok January 10 2012 17 Agriculture 17% Industrial Processes 4% Fugitive Emissions 5% Other Fuel Combustion 11% Source: WRI 2008 V. Climate Change: the data The Role of Agriculture Greenhouse gas Emissions by sector Waste 4% Transport 16% Electricity and Heating 31% Manufacture and Construçtion 13% Agriculture is the second most important source of greenhouse gases Bangkok January 10 2012 18 9
V. Climate Change: the data Greenhouse Gases Agriculture is the second most important source of greenhouse gases The synthesis and use of nitrogenous fertilizers is the principal cause The nitrogen is converted into Nitrous Oxide in the soil Nitrous Oxide is 30-300 times worse than Carbon Dioxide Bangkok January 10 2012 19 V. Climate Change: the data Change in Rainfall Patterns Precipitation Anomalies mm/month One model of changes in patterns of rainfall for the end of the century Source: Gumpenberger et al., Env. Res Letters 2010 Bangkok January 10 2012 20 10
a. Rise in Sea Level Global warming would result in the melting of the polar ice-caps which will in turn cause a reduction in the availability of arable land Bangkok January 10 2012 21 a. Rise in Sea Level Hectares lost due to rise of 1 meter in sea level 0.12 1.5 Predicted population size in 2050 0.31 1.6 0.26 0.07 0.08 0.13 Source: Asian Development Bank; UNPFA Bangkok January 10 2012 22 11
a. Rise in Sea Level a. Rise in Sea level degradation of other lands Increased salinization of coastal regions Bangkok January 10 2012 23 b. Unpredictability Increase in the frequency of floods Damage due to flooding: Thailand Source: P. Ronald U.C. Davis Bangkok January 10 2012 24 12
b. Unpredictability - and also of droughts Bangkok January 10 2012 25 c. Growing Season Length 50-113 days less 20-50 1-20 No Change 1-50 days more 50-100 100-113 Source: WRI Bangkok January 10 2012 26 13
d. Yield Many factors may involved, both positive and negative, e.g. CO 2 Fertilization Positive Effect Heat stress: an increase of 1 C in night-time minimum temperatures is associated with a loss in rice yield of 10% - Negative Effect Source: Peng et al. 2004 PNAS 101:9971-9975 Bangkok January 10 2012 27 d. Yield Percentage change in Irrigated Rice production in 2050 Average Reduction in Yield in Asia 27% Source: M. Rosegrant, IFPRI 2000 old area lost Loss > 25% Loss 5-25% Change within 5% Gain 5-25% Gain > 25% 2050 New Area Gained Bangkok January 10 2012 28 14
d. Yield Percentage change in Irrigated Wheat production in 2050 Average Reduction in Yield in Asia 46% Source: M. Rosegrant, IFPRI 2000 old area lost Loss > 25% Loss 5-25% Change within 5% Gain 5-25% Gain > 25% 2050 New Area Gained Bangkok January 10 2012 29 d. Yield Percentage change in Irrigated Maize production in 2050 Average Reduction in Yield in Asia 17% Source: M. Rosegrant, IFPRI 2000 old area lost Loss > 25% Loss 5-25% Change within 5% Gain 5-25% Gain > 25% 2050 New Area Gained Bangkok January 10 2012 30 15
d. Yield Positive effect in Temperate and Northern zones Source: W. Cline, 2007; WRI Bangkok January 10 2012 31 e. Price Increases 120 Effect of Climate Change 100 % Increase 2010-2050 80 60 40 20 Maize Rice Wheat Source: G. Nelson, IFPRI Bangkok January 10 2012 32 16
f. Cereal Trade Industrialized World 2010-2050 5 Million mt -15-35Medium GDP Medium Population -55-75 -95 Low GDP High Population High GDP Low Population -115 Source: G. Nelson, IFPRI -135-155 Baseline Scenario Pessimistic Scenario Optimistic Scenario Bangkok January 10 2012 33 Can Biotechnology offer a solution to these challenges? Bangkok January 10 2012 34 17
Thank you! ขอบค ณ! Bangkok January 10 2012 35 18