Steve Freed Vice President ADMIS Research

Steve Freed Vice President ADMIS Research Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of ADM Investor Services, Inc. is strictly prohibited. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADM Investor Services, Inc. ("ADMIS") and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc. 10/4/2013

World Population Density

Basic supply/ demand input World Macro- Economic Conditions Weather Investments China Long term US/World supply needs

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Million Metric Tonnes 600 World Ending Stocks - Corn, Soybeans, Wheat 500 400 300 200 Soybeans Wheat Corn 100 0

World Consumption Snapshot in Million Tonnes 2000/2001 2015/2016 % Change 2014/2015 2015/2016 % Change 2016/2017 Forecast Population (Bil) 6.13 7.28 18.76% 7.21 7.28 0.97% 7.92 Palm Oil 23.62 62.71 165.48% 58.54 62.71 7.11% 64.0 Soybean Oil 26.46 50.20 89.73% 47.98 50.74 4.64% 50.74 Soybean Meal 115.78 214.09 84.91% 201.98 215.63 6.75% 216.03 Corn 609.10 975.85 60.21% 977.61 967.45-1.10% 988.20 Wheat 585.20 714.68 22.13% 705.43 711.41 1.90% 721.60 Pork 84.74 110.94 30.92% 110.04 110.94 0.85% 111.23 Beef & Veal 52.89 56.47 6.76% 57.71 56.47-2.15% 57.01 Milk 439.38 580.02 32.01% 570.36 580.02 1.69% 590.67

Monthly nearby soybean futures chart Horizontal lines is USDA est of 2016 range Prices near pre 2008 resistance 10

May soybean Board crush margins 11

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 cents / bu Soybean Average Price Range Daily vs USDA S&D Report Days 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Daily Average USDA S&D Report Days

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1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 120 China Soybean - Net Imports (Million Metric Tonnes) 100 80 60 40 20 0-20

Trade - Million Metric Tonnes 116 109 China Soybean Imports vs. US Percent Share of World Exports Trade US Share (%) 39.0 38.0 102 95 88 81 74 67 60 37.0 36.0 35.0 34.0 33.0 32.0 31.0 US Share (%)

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Trade - Million Metric Tonnes 170 160 World Soybean Trade vs. US Percent Share Trade US Share (%) 38.0 37.0 150 36.0 140 130 120 35.0 34.0 33.0 US Share (%) 110 32.0 100 31.0

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Soybean - Farmer Percent Marketing s 30 25 20 15 2011/12 2012/13 10 5 0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Month of Crop Year

$900 $800 $700 Soybeans Revenues and Costs, Central Illinois High Productivity Farmland, Gross revenue Total non-land costs Total Costs $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0

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Nearby monthly soyoil futures chart 28

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Monthly nearby soymeal futures chart 31

USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND 2015/16 2016/17 2016/17 USDA Office of Chief Economist (OCE) Forecast Released February 2016 US SOYBEANS USDA USDA February Chief Hightower S&D Report Economis Estimate 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 Planted Area (M Acres) 82.7 82.0 84.0 81.5 81.5 81.5 81.5 81.0 81.0 81.0 80.5 80.5 Harvested Area (Acres) 81.8 81.1 83.1 80.7 80.7 80.7 80.7 80.2 80.2 80.2 79.7 79.7 Yield (Bu/Acre) 48.0 46.7 46.5 47.2 47.7 48.2 48.6 49.1 49.6 50.1 50.6 51.0 Beginning Stocks (M Bu) 191 465 450 421 382 348 323 299 275 270 270 265 Production 3,930 3,785 3,867 3,810 3,850 3,890 3,920 3,940 3,980 4,020 4,035 4,065 Imports 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Supply,Total 4,150 4,280 4,347 4,261 4,262 4,268 4,273 4,269 4,285 4,320 4,335 4,360 Crushings 1,880 1,910 1,880 1,920 1,940 1,960 1,980 1,995 2,005 2,020 2,030 2,045 Exports 1,690 1,825 1,650 1,835 1,850 1,860 1,870 1,875 1,885 1,905 1,915 1,925 Seed and Residual 131 124 131 124 124 125 124 124 125 125 125 124 Use, Total 3,701 3,859 3,661 3,879 3,914 3,945 3,974 3,994 4,015 4,050 4,070 4,094 Ending Stocks 450 421 686 382 348 323 299 275 270 270 265 266 Stocks/Use Ratio 12.2% 10.9% 18.7% 9.8% 8.9% 8.2% 7.5% 6.9% 6.7% 6.7% 6.5% 6.5%

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2016 Weather Will Different For Many Areas Relative To That Of Last Year. Wetter - Biased Conditions Are Expected This Year In Southeast Asia, Europe And The Western CIS And Northern South America. The Drier Biased Areas Will Be In Argentina, The Southern U.S. Plains, Northwestern Africa, Eastern Spain, South Africa And Possibly Western Australia (Later In The Winter And Early Spring Seasons).

China Consumption Snapshot 2000/2001 2014/2015 % Change 2013/2014 2014/2015 % Change 2015/2016 Forecast Population (Bil) 1.26 1.37 8.73% 1.35 1.37 1.48% 1.38 Palm Oil 2.03 5.58 174.88% 5.67 5.73 1.06% 5.75 Soybean Oil 3.54 14.19 300.85% 13.66 14.13 3.44% 15.23 Soybean Meal 15.00 57.13 280.87% 52.53 57.47 9.40% 62.08 Corn 120.24 217.00 80.47% 208.00 202.00-2.88% 216.00 Wheat 110.28 118.00 7.00% 116.50 116.50 0.00% 114.00 Pork 39.58 57.17 44.44% 55.41 57.17 3.18% 57.20 Beef & Veal 5.10 7.30 43.14% 7.05 7.30 3.55% 7.35 Milk 9.18 39.09 325.82% 35.91 39.09 8.86% 39.18 Sugar 8.65 17.40 101.16% 15.10 17.56 16.29% 17.50

Near-term outlook China grain and cotton imports slow as Chinese authorities seek to dispose of stockpiles Allow internal prices to decline Limit imports when possible Subsidize processors? Oilseed imports remain strong China s soybean production may rebound slightly Domestic supply of rapeseed and cottonseed plunging Import demand for meats strong High grain prices mean high production costs for livestock Environmental concerns constrain livestock production High value of the U.S. dollar versus competitor countries remains a disadvantage for U.S. exports

10-year outlook Robust demand income growth, urbanization, consumption patterns shaped by new habits, preferences and prices Supply depends on an ambitious makeover for Chinese agriculture A new great leap to capital-intensive, high-tech farming faces institutional obstacles Environmental and resource protection constrain production Markets for a new era e-commerce upgrading inspection/quarantine to accommodate increased trade Overseas investment by Chinese companies to procure food supply, technology, and attain geopolitical objectives Conflict between rigid food security concerns and flexibility needed for modern food market

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