Renewable Distributed Energy Generation Distributed Solar Photovoltaics, Small Wind Power, and Stationary Fuel Cells: Demand Drivers and Barriers, Technology Issues, Competitive Landscape, and Global Market Forecasts The global electric power industry is evolving from a financial and engineering model that relies on large centralized power plants owned by the utilities to one that is more diverse both in sources of generation and ownership of the generation assets. Renewable distributed energy generation (RDEG) technologies represent a growing part of the new model for the electric power industry. Like any emerging industry, new policies and standards must be developed and practiced before the market can mature. Worldwide, utility companies and policy makers are testing programs and business models to support this industry. RDEG stands in contrast to the traditional one-way power supply, as well as the traditional relationship utilities have with their customers. The transition to a more distributed system of power generation will require the evolution of both technologies and business practices. Overall, RDEG makes up a very small part of the current global electric power generation capacity but has the potential to play a much larger role in the future. While Europe and the United States are the largest markets for RDEG today, there is a growing movement to developing countries where electricity costs are high large percentages of the populations are without access to electricity. Pike Research s analysis indicates that Europe will continue to be the largest market for RDEG during the 2012-2017 forecast period, but that Asia Pacific will see the most rapid market growth across the three technologies covered in this report. This Pike Research report explores the global market opportunity for RDEG technologies including distributed solar PV, small wind power, and stationary fuel cells. The report analyzes technology issues, demand drivers and barriers, and policy factors around the world that are influencing the adoption of RDEG technologies. The study includes an assessment of key industry players in each of the three major market segments, as well as detailed market forecasts through 2017 for installed capacity and revenue, segmented by world regions and major countries. KEY MARKET FORECASTS: Region, World Annual Installed Capacity of Stationary Fuel Cells by Region, World Annual Installed Capacity of Small Wind Turbines by Region, World Annual RDEG Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2009-2017 Average Solar PV Installed Prices and Revenues by Region, World Small Wind Systems Average Installed Price and Revenues, World Small Wind System Installed Capacity Additions by Region, World Stationary Fuel Cell Installed Capacity and Revenue by Application, World Markets: -2017 Stationary Fuel Cell Revenue by Region of Manufacture, World Markets: -2017 APPLICATIONS: Residential buildings Commercial buildings Campuses Military bases Remote/off-grid systems Virtual power plants TECHNOLOGIES: Solar photovoltaics Small wind turbines Stationary fuel cells GEOGRAPHIES: North America Europe Asia Pacific Rest of World
TABLE OF CONTENTS: 1. Executive Summary 1.1 A Brief History 1.2 RDEG Market Growth: Distributed Solar PV, Small Wind, Stationary Fuel Cells 1.3 The Future of Distributed Generation 1.4 Key Trends in RDEG 2. Market Issues 2.1 Defining the Market 2.2 What Is Distributed Energy Generation? 2.3 Solar Power Systems 2.4 Small Wind Systems 2.5 Stationary Fuel Cells 2.6 Market Overview of RDEG Technologies: Distributed Solar PV, Small Wind, Stationary Fuel Cells 2.7 Distributed Solar PV Market Overview & Key Trends 2.7.1 Distributed Generation Can Still Mean Thinking Big 2.7.2 Distributed Solar Gains Public and Political Traction versus Centralized Solar 2.7.3 Solar PV Reaching Grid Parity 2.7.4 Small Wind Systems Market Overview and Key Trends 2.7.5 Investment Dollars Drive Technological Development and Market Expansion 2.7.6 Focus of Leading SWT Companies Shifts from the U.S. to the U.K. Market 2.7.7 Stationary Fuel Cells Market Overview & Key Trends 2.8 Other Industry Growth Drivers across All RDEG Technologies 2.8.1 Legislative and Regulatory Mandates 2.8.2 Financial Incentives and Public Policies 2.8.2.1 Public Utilities Regulatory Policies Act 2.8.2.2 Grants 2.8.2.3 Interconnection and Permitting Standards 2.8.2.4 Loan Programs 2.8.2.5 Net Metering Policies 2.8.2.6 Property Tax Incentives 2.8.2.7 Public Benefit Funds 2.8.2.8 Rebate Programs 2.8.2.9 Sales Tax Incentives 2.8.2.10 Renewable Energy Certificates 2.8.3 Asset Ownership 2.8.4 Energy Storage 2.8.5 Microgrids 2.9 Implementation Issues 2.9.1 Grid Interconnection 2.9.2 Grid Integrity and Safety 2.9.3 Standards and Permitting 2.9.4 Utilities Fear of Higher Penetration of Renewables 2.9.5 Aligning the Product with Market Need 3. Technology Issues 3.1 Photovoltaic Systems 3.1.1 Basic Principles 3.1.2 PV Cell Types 3.1.2.1 Crystalline 3.1.2.2 Thin-Film 3.1.2.3 Low-Cost Polysilicon 3.1.3 Efficiency 3.1.4 Reliability 3.1.5 Scalability 3.1.6 Availability 3.1.7 Technology Trend: Micro Inverters, AC Modules, and DC Optimizers 3.1.7.1 Microinverters and AC Panels 3.2 Wind Systems 3.2.1 History 3.2.2 Basic Principles 3.2.3 Types 3.2.3.1 Horizontal Axis 3.2.3.2 Vertical Axis 3.2.4 Cost 3.2.5 Efficiency 3.2.6 Reliability 3.2.7 Scalability 3.2.8 Availability 3.3 Stationary Fuel Cells 3.3.1 Introduction 3.3.2 Background to the Technology 3.3.3 Differences between Fuel Cells 3.3.4 Cost of Fuel Cell Systems 3.3.5 Types of Fuel Cells 3.3.5.1 PEM 3.3.5.2 SOFCs 3.3.5.3 PAFCs and MCFCs 3.3.6 Durability 3.3.7 Standardization 3.4 RDEG Applications 3.4.1 Residential 3.4.2 Commercial/Retail 3.4.3 Government and Institutions 3.4.4 Farms 3.4.5 Telecom Primary and Backup Power 3.4.6 Marine, Remote Monitoring, and Security 3.4.7 Hybrid Systems 3.4.8 Community Projects 3.4.8.1 Community Wind 3.4.8.2 Solar Gardens and Solar Farms 3.5 Grid-Tied versus Off-Grid Installations 4. Demand Drivers 4.1 RDEG Market Drivers 4.1.1 Renewable Energy Targets, Distributed Carve-outs 4.1.1.1 North America 4.1.1.2 Europe 4.1.1.3 Asia Pacific 4.1.2 Feed-in Tariffs 4.1.2.1 North America 4.1.2.2 Europe 4.1.2.3 Asia Pacific 4.2 Distributed Solar PV Market Drivers 4.2.1 Dramatic Cost and Price Reductions 4.2.1.1 Solar Modules 4.2.2 Inverter and Balance of System 4.2.3 Solar PV Leases and Power Purchase Agreements 4.3 Stationary Fuel Cell Drivers 4.4 The Power of Partnerships
4.4.1 Callux Development of Fuel Cell reschp 4.4.2 Denmark: Danish Fuel Cell Partnership 4.4.3 Ene-Farm Program 4.5 Small Wind Market Drivers 5. Market Forecasts 5.1 Worldwide Renewable Distributed Energy Generation 5.1.1 Distributed Solar PV Systems 5.1.2 North America 5.1.3 European Union 5.1.4 Asia Pacific 5.1.5 Rest of World 5.2 Small Wind Systems 5.2.1 Europe 5.2.2 North America 5.2.3 Asia Pacific 5.2.4 Rest of World 5.3 Stationary Fuel Cells 5.3.1 Asia Pacific 5.3.2 North America 5.3.3 Europe 5.3.4 Africa 5.3.5 Latin America 6. Competitive Landscape 6.1 Solar PV Manufacturers 6.1.1 First Solar 6.1.2 JA Solar 6.1.3 REC Solar 6.1.4 SunPower 6.1.5 Suntech 6.1.6 Yingli Solar 6.2 Solar PV Installers and Service Providers 6.2.1 SolarCity 6.2.2 SunEdison 6.2.3 Sungevity 6.2.4 SunRun 6.3 Small Wind Systems 6.4 Key Players 6.4.1 Bergey Wind Power 6.4.2 Endurance Energy 6.4.3 Northern Power Systems 6.4.4 Southwest Windpower 6.4.5 Wind Turbine Industries Corporation 6.5 Stationary Fuel Cell Companies 6.5.1 Altergy 6.5.2 Ballard Fuel Cell 6.5.3 Bloom Energy 7. Company Directory 8. Acronym and Abbreviation List 9. Table of Contents 10. Table of Charts and Figures 11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes LIST OF TABLES: Distributed Energy Generation Technology Comparison PV Strengths and Weaknesses Wind System Strengths and Weaknesses Stack Components Cost Breakdown (PEM Technologies), World Markets: Price Summary for Small Wind Feed-in Tariffs by Region and Size, World Markets: Annual Installed RDEG Capacity by Industry, World Annual Installed RDEG Revenue by Industry, World Region, World Annual Installed Capacity of Stationary Fuel Cells by Region, World Annual Installed Capacity of Small Wind Turbines by Region, World Annual RDEG Installed Capacity by Region, World Annual Installed Distributed Solar PV by Region, World Solar PV System Prices (Non-Weighted Average) by Component, World Markets: 2006-2017 Average Solar PV Installed Prices by Region, World Distributed Solar PV Revenues by Region, World Small Wind Systems Average Installed Price and Revenues, World Small Wind System Installed Capacity Additions by Region, World Small Wind Turbine Annual Revenue by Region, Select Countries: 2009-2017 Small Wind Turbine Annual Installed Capacity by Region, Select Regions: 2009-2017 Stationary Fuel Cell Installed Capacity by Application, World Markets: -2017 Stationary Fuel Cell Revenue by Region of Manufacture, World Markets: -2017 Estimated Annual Stationary Fuel Cell Capacity by Region of Adoption, World Markets: -2017 Cumulative Distribution of Solar PV System Sizes Installed by Number and Capacity, Italy: 2010 and
Distribution of Solar PV System Sizes Installed by Number, Capacity, and Percentage, Italy: Capacity of Solar PV Installed by State and System Size, Germany: Capacity of Solar PV Installed by State and System Size, Germany: 2010 Capacity of Small Wind Turbine Installations by Size, United Kingdom: 2005- Number of Small Wind Turbine Installations by Size, United Kingdom: 2005- Top Small Wind Turbine Manufacturers by Kilowatts Sold, World Markets: 2009 Top Wind Turbine Manufacturers by Number of Turbines Sold, World Markets LIST OF CHARTS & FIGURES: Annual RDEG Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: and 2012 Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2009- Distributed Solar PV System Installed Capacity by Size, Italy: Distributed Solar PV System Installed Capacity by Size, Germany: 2010 and Annual Small Wind Turbine Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2009- Capacity of Small Wind Turbine Installations by Size, United Kingdom: 2005- Small Wind Turbine Installations by Size, United Kingdom: 2005- Annual Stationary Fuel Cell Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: Stationary Fuel Cell Installed Capacity by Application, World Markets: Distributed Solar PV System Price Declines (Non-Weighted Average) by Component, World Markets: 2006-2017 Annual RDEG Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2017 Annual Distributed Solar PV Capacity by Country, North America: 2012-2017 Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Country, Europe: 2012-2017 Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Country, Asia Pacific: 2012-2017 Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Country, Europe: 2012-2017 Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Country, Asia Pacific: 2012-2017 Annual Small Wind System Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2012-2017 Annual Small Wind Turbine Installed Capacity by Region, U.S., U.K., and Rest of World: 2012-2017 Annual Stationary Fuel Cell Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2012-2017 Region: 2009- Region: 2012-2017 Annual Solar PV System Installed Price by Region, World Annual Small Wind System Installed Capacity, World Markets: 2009- Annual Small Wind System Installed Capacity, World Markets: 2012-2017 Average Small Wind Turbine Installed Price, World Comparing Current Status of Distributed Solar PV and Centralized Solar Projects in California Solar PV Approaching Grid Parity German Utility Meets More than 100% of Load with Solar and Wind on May 8, Photovoltaic Cells Module-level Power Management Basic Wind Turbine Designs Representative Global Deployments of Telecom Backup Power by Technology Renewable Portfolio Standards by U.S. State Solar PV Inverter Price Declines by Manufacturer, Market Leaders: 2009- Cost Comparison of Residential Solar PV Installation Costs, United States and Germany ($/Peak W): Levelized Cost Breakdown of Conventional Ground- Mounted PV System in the United States
Annual RDEG Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: and 2012 16,000 14,000 12,000 2012 10,000 (MW) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - North America Europe Asia Pacific Rest of World (Source: Pike Research) KEY QUESTIONS ADDRESSED: What are the key regions for growth of RDEG technologies? How will the reduction in price supports for renewables in Europe affect distributed generation? How will the residential solar lease model affect solar PV installations in the U.S.? What are the tradeoffs between centralized renewable power generation systems versus distributed architectures? What enabling technologies are required for RDEG technologies to scale cost effectively? How much will RDEG technologies cost in 2017? REPORT DETAILS: Price: Pages: Tables, Charts, Figures: Release Date: $3900 113 66 3Q 2012 WHO NEEDS THIS REPORT? Solar PV, small wind, and fuel cell technology providers Distribution, installation and service providers Government agencies and policy development advisors Industry associations Nonprofit organizations Investor community Utilities TO ORDER THIS REPORT: Phone: +1.303.997.7609 Email: sales@pikeresearch.com