Current climatic range 1971-2000 CGCM 3.1 A2 scenario 2071-2100 What of climate change for the boreal mixedwoods of Canada? David Price and Dan McKenney Boreal Mixedwood Conference, Edmonton: 19 June 2012
Acknowledgements Slide 2 Kathy Campbell Marty Siltanen Pia Papadopol Kevin Lawrence John Pedlar (all the above are with CFS-GLFC) Mike Hutchinson (Australian National University, Canberra) Linda Joyce (USDA Forest Service, Ft Collins CO) Dave Coulson (USDA Forest Service, Ft Collins CO) Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCMA) US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) G. Strand (UCAR) Australia: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) M. Collier, M. Dix, and T. Hirst (CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Division) Japan: Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Frontier Research Center for Global Change Many reviewers in Canada and the USA of two reports published in 2011.
Outline Slide 3 Causes of climate change and reasons why we cannot be sure what will happen Climate scenarios for Canada Impacts of climate change on Canada s boreal (what s more-or-less certain?) Modelling range shifts of key boreal mixedwood species Concluding remarks
Outline Slide 4 Causes of climate change and reasons why we cannot be sure what will happen Climate scenarios for Canada Impacts of climate change on Canada s boreal (what s more-or-less certain?) Modelling range shifts of key boreal mixedwood species Concluding remarks
Why is climate change Uncertain? Slide 5 Natural feedbacks Human feedbacks Adapted from NRTEE (2011), originally from Menne and Ebi (2006).
Outline Slide 6 Causes of climate change and reasons why we cannot be sure what will happen Climate scenarios for Canada Impacts of climate change on Canada s boreal (what s more-or-less certain?) Modelling range shifts of key boreal mixedwood species Concluding remarks
Selected GCM Scenarios Slide 7 Projection data generated by GCMs from CCCma (Canada), CSIRO (Australia), NCAR (USA) and NIES (Japan). [Data also available from IPCC 3 rd Assessment (TAR, 2001) (CCCma, CSIRO, Hadley Centre (UK) and NCAR.] SRES A2: increasing population, little technological change, greater deforestation, pollution and CO 2 emissions SRES B1: as A2, but rapid global shift towards resource-efficient technologies and reduced GHG emissions SRES B2: as B1, but more local efforts to increase resource efficiency and reduce emissions SRES A1B: higher population growth than A2, with balance of energy from fossil and renewable sources Monthly time series extending from 1961 to 2100, gridded to 5 arcminute (1/12 degree lat/lon) resolution about 10 km. 20 data sets in total. Lots of ways to use these data! Nakićenović et al. 2000. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios.
Correcting for GCM bias Slide 8 Step 1: Determine mean of observations for reference period. Step 2: Determine mean of GCM projection for reference period. Step 3: Calculate delta values by subtracting (or dividing by) the GCM mean from Step 2 Step 4: Calculate corrected GCM data by adding (or multiplying by) the observed mean from Step 1
Changes in annual means (SRES A2, 2080s) Slide 9 CGCM3.1 - Canada CSIRO Mk 3.5 - Australia MIROC3.2 - Japan NCAR CCSM3 - USA Temperature Increase ( C) Precipitation Change (ratio)
Analysis by Canadian ecozones Slide 10
Canadian mixedwood ecozones Slide 11
Temperature ( C) Annual Mean Daily T min Prairies subhumid ecozone (Parkland) Slide 12 (Historical data ~45 years)
Total Precipitation (mm) Fall (SON) Total Precipitation Mixedwood Plains ecozone Slide 13
Irradiance (MJ m -2 day -1 ) Winter (DJF) Mean Daily Solar Radiation Boreal Shield West ecozone Slide 14 10-year moving averages
Which GCM scenarios are best for regional analysis? It depends. Slide 15 2090s 2050s
Projected climate for the Boreal Plains Ecozone 1960 to 2100 Slide 16 Annual Mean Daily Tmin ( C) Annual Precipitation (mm) Boreal Shield E Historical data are 10-year moving averages, spatially averaged for ecozone from 10 km interpolated data. Future projections are 10-year moving averages of four GCMs, forced by one IPCC SRES GHG emissions scenario. Ranges are ±1 S.D.
Outline Slide 17 Causes of climate change and reasons why we cannot be sure what will happen Climate scenarios for Canada Impacts of climate change on Canada s boreal (what s more-or-less certain?) Modelling range shifts of key boreal mixedwood species Concluding remarks
Effects of climate change on Canadian boreal forests Slide 18 Climate zones shift northward (~10x rate of natural colonization) Maladaptation of species/genotypes that remain in situ Increased CO 2 may stimulate faster growth, due to synergistic effects of temperature increase on physiology and soil organic matter decomposition Natural disturbances (fire, insect outbreaks) likely to become more severe (with regional variations); possibilities for interactions Forest disease organisms and their potential responses are largely unknown Increased drought, particularly in south and west (Ted Hogg) Degradation of permafrost on a potentially huge scale (with significant likelihood of further large-scale GHG releases) Potential for ecosystem tipping points to be reached and exceeded
Outline Slide 19 Causes of climate change and reasons why we cannot be sure what will happen Climate scenarios for Canada Impacts of climate change on Canada s boreal (what s more-or-less certain?) Modelling range shifts of key boreal mixedwood species Concluding remarks
Species climate envelope (CE) modelling (McKenney et al. 2007) Slide 20 Most species distributions characterized by several thousand occurrence locations within the published range CEs based on temperature and precipitation regimes Climate profile generated at each species occurrence location (based on 6 climate variates) Maximum and minimum values of each climate variable determine full climate CEs (brown); 5% to 95% percentiles used to generate core CEs (green).
Projected shifts in climate zones: Populus tremuloides Slide 21 Little s Range Current climatic range 1971-2000 CGCM31 B1 2041-2070 CGCM31 B1 2071-2100 CGCM31 A2 2071-2100
Projected shifts in climate zones: Betula papyrifera Slide 22 Little s Range Current climatic range 1971-2000 CGCM31 B1 2041-2070 CGCM31 B1 2071-2100 CGCM31 A2 2071-2100
Projected shifts in climate zones: Picea glauca Slide 23 Little s Range Current climatic range 1971-2000 CGCM31 B1 2041-2070 CGCM31 B1 2071-2100 CGCM31 A2 2071-2100
Projected shifts in climate zones: Picea mariana Slide 24 Little s Range Current climatic range 1971-2000 CGCM31 B1 2041-2070 CGCM31 B1 2071-2100 CGCM31 A2 2071-2100
Projected shifts in climate zones: Abies balsamea Slide 25 Little s Range Current climatic range 1971-2000 CGCM31 B1 2041-2070 CGCM31 B1 2071-2100 CGCM31 A2 2071-2100
Projected shifts in climate zones: Pinus banksiana Slide 26 Little s Range Current climatic range 1971-2000 CGCM31 B1 2041-2070 CGCM31 B1 2071-2100 CGCM31 A2 2071-2100
Outline Slide 27 Causes of climate change and reasons why we cannot be sure what will happen Climate scenarios for Canada Impacts of climate change on Canada s boreal (what s more-or-less certain?) Modelling range shifts of key boreal mixedwood species Concluding remarks
Conclusions - 1 Slide 28 We can be certain that climate change will have some major impacts on the boreal mixedwood region of Canada We are less certain about the timing and spatial distribution of these impacts Some effects are likely already in progress (but we lack some long-term monitoring capacity to be sure)..
Conclusions - 2 Slide 29 Optimal climate zones for most BMW species will shift northwards, causing management challenges, particularly in the south; significant shifts are very likely within 30-40 yr. N.B. These are not projections of where species will be (slow colonization, poor soils, geographic barriers, etc.) Uncertainty should not deter managers from making decisions today which take climate change into account! (Some options, such as assisted migration, are now being investigated seriously in some Provinces.)
Further reading. Slide 30 http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/publications?id=32971 http://www.ccfm.org/pdf/treespecies_web_e.pdf http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02413.x/full
Projected shifts in climate zones: Populus balsamifera Slide 31 Little s Range Current climatic range 1971-2000 CGCM31 B1 2041-2070 CGCM31 B1 2071-2100 CGCM31 A2 2071-2100