Alaska s Propane Demand Presentation to Rural Energy Conference, Fairbanks Cal Kerr April 27, 2010
Outline, Objectives Discuss In-State Gas Demand results (propane), from TransCanada's application to FERC Estimate energy use per household Discuss demand for propane in rural Alaska Compare residential, commercial demand Display areas where propane could succeed Discuss project sensitivity analysis
Background: In-State Gas Demand Study Why did TransCanada Alaska commission an in-state gas demand study? Comply with 157.34(b) of FERC Open Season Regulations for Alaska Natural Gas Transportation Projects Estimate potential pipeline capacity for in-state gas use Estimate transportation rate for in-state deliveries Comply with AGIA 43.90.130(12) and (13)(B) Provide a minimum of 5 delivery points in Alaska Offer distance-sensitive rates to in-state delivery points APP website has complete In-state Gas Demand Study Report www.thealaskapipelineproject.com
Consultant Team Northern Economics, Inc. (NEI) Prior research on gas and propane demand Residential & commercial gas demand; propane demand Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) Developed and maintains most respected economic model Employment, population and household forecast by region Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) Prior work on sectors for U.S. DOE and ANGDA Power and industrial gas demand
Regional Propane Demand
Projected Propane Demand Propane analysis not required for in-state natural gas demand study. Added to provide State and others with information to address high energy costs in rural Alaska.
Rural Alaska Propane Demand Rural Alaska Project Propane Demand Residential and Commercial: heating, power, including schools, public buildings Industrial: Mining, Seafood
Estimated Gallons of Distillate Fuels, per Household Census Area Heating Electricity Transportation Total Yukon-Koyukuk 605 951 218 1,774 Wade Hampton 736 866 202 1,803 Skagway-Hoonah-Angoon 910 394 262 1,566 Prince of Wales-Outer Ketchikan 983 117 357 1,457 Lake &Peninsula 1,020 765 249 2,034 Southeast Fairbanks 1,033 1,019 268 2,320 Nome 1,044 995 283 2,322 Kodiak Island 1,094 575 239 1,908 Bethel 1,148148 1206 1,206 411 2,764 Northwest Arctic 1,173 1,243 376 2,793 Dillingham 1,317 1,008 386 2,711 Aleutians East 1,514 1,319 599 3,432 Valdez-Cordova d 1,612 997 586 3,195 Aleutians West 1,831 3,348 1,147 6,325
Diesel per Household, Census Area, 2008
I. Assumptions: Propane Demand Analysis Propane competes with distillate fuels and distillate fuel price is correlated with crude oil price; propane price is full market price Propane would be available in 2019 at Fairbanks Model varies the rate of conversion to propane for communities and industry in rural Alaska
II. Assumptions: Propane Demand Analysis No subsidies for propane conversion costs Model varies number of households in each region (MAP) Pebble Mine is assumed to begin operation after 2020 and model varies propane p demand High uncertainty, required probability model
Propane versus Diesel Need more gallons of propane, about 50% Need more tanks, up to 50% Pressure vessels up to 60% more Conversion Assumption: propane $ < 90% diesel $, energy equivalent basis Community Conversion over years, tank farm
Propane Model Adapted from model developed for ANGDA in 2005 Tug & barge delivery to coastal communities Model modifications Tug & barge delivery: Kuskokwim River, Yukon River from Nenana and from Yukon River mouth Truck delivery from Fairbanks to Interior communities Capital cost for propane extraction plants developed by GLE; small plants not economic
Potential Residential, Commercial Demand Region Years 1-5 Years 10-15 1,000s of gallons Northwest-Arctic 10,432 12,019 Yukon - Koyukuk 2,031 2,292 Northern Railbelt 17,128 19,712 Southeast Fairbanks 4,077 4,782 Yukon - Kuskokwim 10,073 11,479 Southwest 16,872 18,058 Southern Railbelt 17,701 21,718 Valdez-Cordova 9,872 11,355 Southeast 43,347 52,590 Total 131,533 154,005 Assumes: 91,000 BTUs/gallon for propane, 100% distillate displacement by propane (i.e., these are maximum numbers).
Projected Propane Demand, by Sector, in Barrels per Day, Two Future Time Frames Residential, Electric Year Demand Type Com mercial Power Industrial Total Year 1-5 Potential 8,580 5,007 19,853 33,440 Year 1-5 Estimated 477 337 2,484 3,298 Year 1-5 Percent of Potential 6% 7% 13% 10% Year 10-15 Potential 10,046 5,702 29,097 44,845 Year 10-15 Estimated 6,133 4,248 22,326 32,707 Year 10-15 Percent of Potential 61% 75% 77% 73%
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Sensitivity Analysis 2019 Range 2030 Range Variables Base Low High Base Low High Crude price (2009 $ per barrel) 115.88 47.75 191.23 128.19 47.75 212.29 Gas Price at Henry Hub (2009 $ per MMBtu) 7.04 6.29 7.79 8.50 7.26 9.55 Mainline tariff to AECO (2009 $MMBtu) 2.62 1.96 3.27 2.62 1.96 3.27 Mainline tariff for in-state (2009 $ per MMBtu) 1.49 1.12 1.87 1.49 1.12 1.87 Spurline tariff (2009 $ per MMBtu) 1.68 0.75 2.99 1.68 0.75 2.99 Capital cost range (% of original estimate) 100% 62% 175% 100% 62% 175% Community (% per year convert to propane) 7% 5% 10% 7% 5% 10% Industrial (% per year convert to propane) 20% 10% 25% 20% 10% 25% Households (in thousands) Varied by Area Varied by Area
Likelihood of Propane Demand 4,000 40,000 Barrels per Day (Mid-point t) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Year 1 to 5 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Year 10 to 15 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Summary Propane can help address high rural fuel costs Residential demand: cooking, water, space heat Commercial: space heat, others Transportation: distillates Propane model: 2019, at Fairbanks Demand: barge and highway driven Range: 3,000 to 30,000 000 bpd over Year 1 to 15 Full report on web
ANGDA s Propane Project Propane off-take site is Prudhoe, not Fairbanks Project starts before year 2019 Trucking and water distribution may cost less Lower costs can enhance economics ANDGA s project can be a bridge to the gas pipeline
ANGDA Propane Project, Distribution
Questions?