Global Trade in Agriculture and Food Products Anneke Hamilton Agriculture and Commodities Division 12 September 2013 SADC Workshop, South Africa d 1
General presentation - Outline Data on agricultural trade Agricultural Products Share in world merchandise exports Value of World Food and Agricultural Trade Volume of World Food & Agriculture Trade Main Exporters & Importers Top Traded Agricultural Products SADC Trade in Food and Agricultural Products Impact of supply chains on patterns of global trade 2
Share of Agricultural Products in World Merchandise Exports 3
Agricultural Products (1900-2011): Share (%) in World Merchandise Exports Declining share of food and agricultural products in world merchandise exports over the period Increase in share of manufactures (with a few dips) Fuels and mining products experienced fluctuations, but overall recorded growth over the period 4
Agricultural Products (1900-2011): Share (%) in World Merchandise Exports 5
Agricultural Products (1990 & 2011): Share (%) in World Merchandise Exports Over the last twenty years, the share of agricultural products in world trade has declined from 12% to 9%. Fuels and mining products increased from 14% to 23% 6
Agricultural Products (1990 & 2011): Share (%) in World Merchandise Exports 7
Value of World Food & Agriculture Trade 8
World Food & Agriculture Trade (Exports): Value in 2012 Agricultural products: US$ 1,657 billion Food : US$ 1,375 billion 9
World Food & Agricultural Trade (Exports): Value from 2002-2012 The value of agricultural products and food products increased over the period 2002-2012. Food products account for the larger share of agricultural products (approximately 80%) with raw materials accounting for the remainder. 10
World Food & Agricultural Trade (Exports): Value from 2002-2012 Food Agricultural Products 1800 1600 1400 1,661 1,657 1,360 1,375 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 US dollar at current prices 11
How does the trend for exports in agricultural products compare with exports of other merchandise products? 12
World Exports by Product: Value from 2000-2011 Significant growth in the value of exports of manufactured products. Fuels and mining have increased at a slower pace (but faster than that of agricultural products). 13
US$ Billion dollars World Exports by Product: Value from 2000-2011 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Agriculture Fuels and Mining Manufactures US dollar at current prices 14
World Food & Agriculture Trade (Imports): Value in 2012 Agricultural products: US$ 1,745 billion Food : US$ 1,458 billion 15
World Food & Agricultural Trade (Imports): Value from 2002-2012 Food Agricultural Products 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1,390 1,704 1,458 1,745 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 US dollar at current prices 16
Volume of World Exports of Food & Agriculture Products 17
Volume of World Exports of Food & Agriculture Products: 2000-2011 Growth in export volume of agricultural products has generally lagged behind that of manufactures for the period 2000-2011. In 2011, the increase in export volume of agricultural products was 4%. 18
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Main Exporters & Importers 20
Billion dollars World Exports by Economic Grouping: 2011 12000 10000 10247 8000 6000 6649 4000 2000 0 530 DVD Developing DVG CIS Developed 21
Ag Products Main Exporters: 1995 Main exporter of agricultural products in 2005 was the EU (in particular: France, Germany and Netherlands). 22
Ag Products Main Exporters: 1995 1 3 2 4 5 6 6 23
Main Exporters (US$ Billion) 2011 Canada 60 USA 168 157 EU 625 China 64 Brazil 86 Indonesia 48 24
Ag Products Main Exporters: 2011 Asia replaces NA for 2 nd place. 1 2 3 4 6 5 7 25
Main Importers (US$ Billion): 2011 186 Canada 36 USA 137 EU 654 Russia 40 China 144 Japan 95 26
Top Traded Agricultural Products 27
Top Traded Agricultural Products 2000 (excluding intra EU trade) US$ Billion (HS4) Wheat US$11.5billion (4.4%) Liqueur, spirits US$7.1billion (2.7%) Soybeans US$8.9billion (3.4%) Cigarettes US$8.4billion (3.2%) Coffee US$7.5 billion (2.9%) Grape wine US$6.7billion (2.5%) Sugar US$6.2billion (2.3%) Soybean oilcake US$5.8billion (2.2%) Maize US$7.2billion (2.8%) Food prep. US$5.7billion (2.2%) 28
Top Traded Agricultural Products 2010 (excluding intra EU trade) US$ Billion (HS4) Soybeans US$38billion (5.3%) Soybean oilcake US$19.1billion (2.6%) Palm oil US$27.5billion (3.8%) Grape wine US$16.9billion (2.3%) Wheat US$26billion (3.6%) Sugar US$24.6billion (3.4%) Maize US$19.3billion (2.7%) Coffee US$16.7billion (2.3%) Food prep. US$16.6billion (2.3%) Liqueur, spirits US$16.4billion (2.3%) 29
SADC: Trade in Food & Agriculture Products 30
SADC Exports of Agricultural Products: Value (US$ Billion) from 2008-2012 SADC Member 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Angola 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03 Botswana 0.16 0.18 0.24 0.14 0.13 Lesotho 0.06 0.08 0.11 0.15 0.14 Madagascar 0.37 0.34 0.28 0.51 0.43 Malawi 0.79 1.08 0.85 1.15 0.96 Mauritius 0.69 0.62 0.70 0.78 0.83 Mozambique 0.48 0.57 0.60 0.93 0.73 Namibia 1.08 1.08 1.49 1.48 1.36 Seychelles 0.23 0.21 0.21 0.25 0.26 South Africa 7.04 6.68 7.87 8.87 8.30 Swaziland 0.44 0.47 0.51 0.54 0.54 Tanzania 1.10 0.98 1.18 1.14 1.33 Zambia 0.34 0.38 0.49 0.78 0.75 Zimbabwe 0.60 0.88 0.79 1.17 1.29 US dollar at current prices 31
SADC Members Share in Economy s Total Exports (2011) Agricultural products Fuels and mining products Manufactures Angola 0 98.2 1.7 Botswana 2.4 8.7 87.2 Congo, Dem Rep. Lesotho 5.1 0 87.9 Madagascar 26.5 14.2 59.1 Malawi 80.6 8.9 9.1 Mauritius 29.3 1 54.5 Mozambique 16.5 53.9 4.7 Namibia 22.8 31.4 44.2 Seychelles 52.5 35.6 2.5 South Africa 9.2 41.1 38.1 Swaziland 28.3 1.8 69.7 Tanzania 22.4 21.7 14.9 Zambia 6.8 83.2 8.9 Zimbabwe 24.7 33.2 33.2 32
SADC Members Share in Economy s Total Exports (2011) Agricultural products Fuels and mining products Manufactures 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 33
SADC Members Share in Economy s Total Imports (2011) Agricultural products Fuels and mining products Manufactures Angola 23.1 6.3 70.2 Botswana 11.2 17.2 70.4 Congo, Dem Rep. Lesotho 13.2 5.9 64.5 Madagascar 17.2 20.6 61.9 Malawi 14.4 11.5 73.8 Mauritius 24.2 22.7 52.8 Mozambique 9.6 16.6 36.1 Namibia 8.9 31.2 52.5 Seychelles 23.4 25.7 48.2 South Africa 7.1 23.6 63.2 Swaziland 21.6 15.2 62.2 Tanzania 11.1 34.4 54.5 Zambia 5.3 32.6 61.7 Zimbabwe 20.7 24.3 50.5 34
SADC Members Share in Economy s Total Imports (2011) Agricultural products Fuels and mining products Manufactures 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 35
Have supply chains changed the pattern of international trade? 36
Have supply chains changed the pattern of international trade? Growing interconnectedness of production processes among many countries Countries specializing in particular stages of a good s production Creation of global value chains and international production networks Firm-specific modes of production (production fragmentation) vs. country-specific modes of production Leading to. 37
Have supply chains changed the pattern of international trade? Impact on the accurate measurement of international trade flows and the value-added at each stage of production Statistics on international trade flows are collected in gross terms With the increased creation of global value chains it may lead to a multiple-counting of trade in intermediate goods May result in the distortion of international trade data 38
THANK YOU! Agriculture and Commodities Division Anneke.Hamilton@wto.org SPS gateway http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/sps/_e.htm