Castor Seed &Oil Monthly Research Report

April, 26 Castor Seed &Oil Monthly Research Report Contents Outlook and Review Recommendations Seed Supply & Demand Oil Supply & Demand Domestic Market Fundamentals Technical Analysis (Futures Market) Castor Seed WPI International Castor Oil Market Summary Monthly spot price comparison Overall View

April, 26 Outlook and Review At Domestic Front: Monthly average prices surged in Castor physical market good demand by traders. Arrival are also recorded higher after new crop availability. However, lower crush margin of caster seed and poor castor oil demand may curb further hike of castor seed prices. Prices in market is expected to dip from current level in upcoming month. So impact of lower area coverage may be nullified by higher yield. In view of farmers, recent low temperature is beneficial for the castor crop as a result yield is likely to be higher side with good quality. Overall outlook remains bearish. Firm tone are witnessed in the castor physical market due to good demand against lower supplies. Buyers are aggressive in the market. Sellers are seen in wait and watch condition for further hike. Stockiest and millers are active in the market further to buy raw materials. In the long run, prices may go up in the long term as lower production estimates of this season. sometimes physical market are closed on account of financial year closing in March 27. In the long run, prices may go up in the long term as lower production estimates of this season. India exported castor meal higher at 332 tonnes in February 27 than 5263 tonnes in January 27. However, Castor meal exports volume is expected to go down in upcoming month on lower demand majorly in international markets. Average castor meal exports ( April 26 to February 27) is registered higher at 443 T against 367979 T in previous year during the same period of time. FOB quotes for meal stood down by 2.3% to$57/t in February 27 against $65/T during the corresponding period of last year. South Korea bought 333576 tonne meal during April- February 27. According to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA),Castor seed production in 26/7 is expected to stand down by 9% to.3 lakh tonnes compared to 4 lakh tonnes in previous year. While, castor seed production for 26/7 is placed down at 7.38 lakh tonnes against previous year record i.e. 7.52 lakh tonne as per the second advance estimates by the ministry of agriculture department. Castor oil export of India decreased by 3.44 percent to 3438 MT during December-26/7 season against 3568 MT in 25/6 season in the same period of time. Total coffee exports of 26/7 so far is registered down by 3.39% to 37846 as compared to 543274 MT in the same period of time in last year. Export pace is expected to go down as availability of oil is higher and slow buying activities in international market. India exported castor oil at Rs.272.74 crore per tonne in December-26, down by 4.22% from previous month record. Total FoB quote of this season 26/7 stood at Rs. 2652.7 crore compared to Rs. 498.9 crore in previous season. As per recent second advanced estimates of Haryana agriculture department, caster seed crop production, Area and Yield for the season 26/7 are estimated at.3( Tonnes), ( hect.) and 267(kgs./ hect.). This year preliminary Agriwatch estimate for 27/8 shows. 67 lakh tonne production based on farmers feedback and initial field survey in Gujarat, Rajasthan and AP. Area in Gujarat is likely to decline by over 2 % from 6.2 to 4.96 lakh ha. Overall decline in Rajasthan may be 5% and area would decline from 2.3 to.84 lakh ha. In AP / Telangana it may decline by 2 percent to.6 lakh ha. As weather remains favorable Agriwatch expects normal yield this year. Based on normal yield seed production may decline to.67 lakh tonne given the normal weather condition. Agriwatch would revise preliminary estimate in November-27. Recommendation: Agriwatch advises to buy seed around Rs 4 to Rs 49 per qtl for stock purpose, depending on supply source and retain it at least for three months for better return.

April, 26 Seed Supply & Demand: There is no change in preliminary estimate. Agriwatch Preliminary estimates regarding area and production shows around 6 percent lower acerage this year due to crop shifting from castor seed to other lucrative crops. Over all area would decline from.2(normal) to 9.43 lakh ha this year. The estimate is based on initial ground level survey and feedback received from farmers. Agriwatch expects above normal rainfall this year and hopes normal yield too. Based on normal yield realization seed production would decline from 5.2 to 2.69 lakh tonne this year. The season started with 5.9 lakh tonne as carryout. Thus total availability for current MY comes to 8.6 lakh tonne if estimated production of 2.69 lakh tonne is included. Lower production would drag carryout down from5.9 to 3. lakh tonne. It would push seed price up in second and third quarter. Preliminary Forecast For 27-8 All units in lakh tonnes 223 234 245 256 267 278 5.8 6.84 6.4 5.54 5.9 5.35 Production 3.4.7 3 5.2 2.94.5 Imports Total Availability 8.84 8.54 9.4 2.66 8.85 5.85 2 2.5 3.5 4.75 3.5 5.5 2 2.5 3.5 4.75 3.5 5.5 6.84 6.4 5.54 5.9 5.35.35..4.3.23.3.29 6.84 5.8 4.92 4.8 4.76.27.57.483.4.4.4.2 Carry in Consumption Exports Total Usage Carry out Av Monthly Consumption Stock to Month Use Stock to Consumption Ratio Castor Oil Demand & Supply: There is no change in oil supply-demand side. Season 26-7 would start with.5 lakh tonne oil as carryin stock. Agriwatch has estimated 7 lakh tonne oil production from 25-6 crop to be marketed in 26-7 including derivatives use. This brings total availability to 7.5 lakh tonne.export has been pegged at 5.5 lakh tonne slightly higher than 25-6 as supply is higher and price is lower. Carryout for next year would be at higher side(around lakh tonne) despite higher export volume. Castor Oil Supply & Demand Projection For 26-7 Unit in lakh tonne 24-5 25-6 26-7(E) Carry in.5.25.5 Production 6 6.5 7 Imports Total Availability 6.5 6.75 7.5 Consumption (domestic).9 Exports 5 5.25 5.5 Total Usage 5.9 6.25 6.5 Carry out.25.5

April, 26 Castor Oil Monthly Export Trend & Seed Ave Price: Castor oil export of India decreased by 3.44 percent to 3438 MT during December26/7 season against 3568 MT in 25/6 season in the same period of time. Total coffee exports of 26/7 so far is registered down by 3.39% to 37846 as compared to 543274 MT in the same period of time in last year. Export pace is expected to go down as availability of oil is higher and slow buying activities in international market. India exported castor oil at Rs.272.74 crore per tonne in December-26, down by 4.22% from previous month record. Total FoB quote of this season 26/7 stood at Rs. 2652.7 crore compared to Rs. 498.9 crore in previous season. 72. Castor Oil Export (In '' Metric Tonne) 62. 52. 42. 32. 22. 2. 2-23-4 26-7 Castor Seed Price Trend: Monthly Average Castor prices in March month increased supported by higher prices in future market and improved demand. However, the trend will not be continue on improved yield and declining demand which may curb further hike in the market. 42 Arrivals are in full pace which may restrict castor seed prices in upcoming month. Steady to weak trend could be seen in upcoming days. 38 2-2 24-5 22-3 25-6 Av. Weekly Seed Price Movement March27(Rs/Qtl) 4 36 34 32 3 Rajkot Patan Deesa Sumer Pur st Week 2nd Week 3rd Week 4th Week Total

April, 26 Castor Seed Arrival Trend: Arrivals of seed improved in the last week of January 27 in comparison to previous week record. Arrival may improve further after improving condition of cash in the market and new crops availability. 45 New crop starts hitting the market from January 27. 3 4 Avearge Weekly Arrivals In March 27 Units in Quintal 35 25 Rajkot 2 Patan Deesa 5 Sumer Pur 5 st Week Castor Oil Meal Export Trend: 3rd Week 4th Week Total 8 Monthly Castormeal Export8 (Monthly) 7 7 6 9 Quanity in MT and FOB $ Per T India exported castor meal higher at 332 tonnes in February 27 than 5263 tonnes in January 27. However, Castor meal exports volume is expected to go down in upcoming month on lower demand majorly in international markets. Average castor meal exports ( April 26 to February 27) is registered higher at 443 T against 367979 T in previous year during the same period of time. FOB quotes for meal stood down by 2.3% to$57/t in February 27 against $65/T during the corresponding period of last year. South Korea bought 333576 tonne meal during April- February 27. 2nd Week 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 26 FoB Quote

April, 26 Variation In Production Estimates & Forecast For 25-6 & 26/7: Crop Year Govt. Fig 2-2 22-3 23-4 24-5 25-6* 22.95 9.64 6.89 8.7 Comparable Production Estimates(Fig. In Lakh Tonne) Oil Private Trades Agriwatch Nelson/Area Govt world 5.8 8.8 Not available 5.73 3.2 Not available 3.8.5.8.7.6 5.6 to 3 2 2.78 4.5 5.2 3.97 6.2 COOIT 4.8.43.3 2.95 4 6.6* 2.69** nd Adv Estimate (Target-2.34 lakh tonne) released on 2 Aug-26 ** Agriwatch preliminary estimate for 267 26-7 th *4 Agriwatch Preliminary Area & Production Forecast For Crop Year 26-7 Production In "" Yield In kg/ha Tonne 5 years 2526-7** ave 26-7 6 Fore.. 695.4 695.4 239.37 93.4 226 226 33.57 7.7 375.55 375.55 2.78 9.54 569.55 569.55 94. 54.96 2.5 2.5 55.3 44.2 58. 58. 56.45 45.6 928.95 928.95 66.4 53.3 98.75 98.75 8.87 7.42 33.75 33.75 4.8.23 665.4 665.4 47.3 37.94 957 957 26.94 2.47 98.2 98.2 97.46 8.2 784.75 784.75 3.7 3. 477.5 477.5 73.64 58.6 534.425 534.425 8.79 95.68 Banaskantha Sabarkantha Mehasana Patan Gandhi Nagar Kachchh Surender Ngr Jamnagar Rajkot Vadodara Kheda Ahmedabad Panchmahal Others Gujarat Total Area In ''ha 25-5 years 266 Ave 7 42.4 4.28 3.92 66.45 67.49 53.6 82.27 73.65 65.82 23.4 98.28 98.73 27.42 28.4 2.94 98..42 78.48 7.73 64.35 57.38 8.44 3.49 6.75.55 5. 8.44 28.48 4.9 22.78 3.7 24.94.97 5.63 47.93 4.5 2..22.69 49.58 48.2 39.66 775.28 775.32 62.22 Rajasthan Barmer Jalore Jodhpur Pali Sirohi Others Rajasthan Total 25-5 years 26-255 years 256 ave 7 6 ave 26-7 6 26-7** 26 26 22. 5 94.8 94.8 29.9 24.2 55. 7.6 6.9 275 223.8 223.8 7.25 74.5 6.3 56.6 48. 487.75 487.75 487.75 29.33 23.48 3 5 4.25 75.25 739.85 739.85 2.25 3.4 48. 52.46 44.59.5.5.5 52.93 49.7 6 9.8 8.33 3 3 3 6.9 8.59 98.33 22.5 88.28 965.75 946.28 946.28 9.54 78.7 AP/Telangana 25- Gujarat 5years 26-256 68 2 37.75 572.75 2.25 575.5 925.75 5.75 334.75 655 965 925 76.75 485.5 523.5 25-5 yrs Ave 26-7 25-26-7

April, 26 6 Anantpur 2.3 Kurnool 39.9 Mehboob Ngr 77.25 Nalgonda.62 Rangareddy.62 Others 7.22 AP/TelanganaTotal 38.2 average 7 7.4 6.66 39.2 35.28 78.4 7.57 2.8.97 2.66 2.4 8.8 7.36 38.3 24.23 6 6 725. 562.5 675.25 69. 5. 645.25 634.67 73.4 573.7 669.65 74.4 498.8 658.5 639.33 73.4 573.7 669.65 74.4 498.8 658.5 639.33 8.79 22.4 52.6.43.82 4.66 9.8 4.87 2.24 47.26.38.2 4.85 79.42 Agriwatch preliminary estimates on area and production are based on farmer s sowing intention and initial ground level survey in some pockets of Rajasthan and Gujarat. Castor Oil Export Volume: EXPORT OF CASTOR OIL DURING APRIL TO NOVEMBER 26 ( 8 MONTH ) Month / Year 26-7 Qty MT. Bulk+ Container April 45,378 May 52,33 June 5,994 July 38,836 August 38,497 September 34,28 October 47,2 November 35,68 December 3438 January February March Total Source: SEA 378,46 Value Rs. Cr. 28.9 347.9 5 346. 252.3 255.4 25.2 2 36.3 284.7 6 272.7 4 2,653 25-6 Qty MT. Bulk+ Container Rs. Cr. 24-5 Qty MT. Bulk+ Container Rs. Cr. 23-4 Qty MT. Bulk+ Container Rs. Cr. 48,5 353.43 38,66 39. 39,422 299.5 46,73 349.6 47,76 38.96 59,9 438.5 47,257 37.39 45,824 375.22 38,868 298.5 35,756 288.22 36,766 37.53 57,24 43.94 37,57 39.7 38,96 333.88 39,96 33. 45,5 369.88 34,285 297.57 43,39 337.2 37,25 3.5 7,6 5.92 3,228 232.5 45,2 377.39 2,89 74.98 2,37 58. 5,578 422.9 47,4 42.64 38,744 293.45 46,25 46,327 57,35 543,274 385.74 39.9 349.52 498. 9 36,5 37,8 59,294 459,378 337.6 3.23 458.7 3869.3 4 28,49 38,974 35,773 472,255 244.7 39.3 292.5 3658.2 4 Value Value Value

April, 26 Castor Seed Inflation: Castor seed monthly wholesale price index: Weight:.4425, Base year: 24-5= Castor seed monthly WPI decreased slightly by.68% to 28. in February 27 against 29.6 in January 27. Units in Rs. Monthly Whole Sale Price Index 225 22 25 2 25 2 95 9 85 8 75 Monthly Whole Sale Price Index Source: WPI Comparative Prices Of Castor Products Including Seed 24th Mar'7 Castorseed (Gujarat)((Rs./M.T) Ex-Mandi 55 Castor Meal Export (FAS) (US$ / MT),Ex 63 Kandla EXPORT (FOR) Ports (Rs./MT)Castor meal 45 bulk Kandla Castor Oil (First Grade) FOB Kandla 65 (Export)$/Tonne Local rates for oil in domestic market(rs./m.t.) 5 for comm. 7th Mar'7 435 24th Feb'7 NQ 24th Mar'6 329 CHANGE % 38.3 62 NQ 74 88.25 4 NQ 4856-9.9 4 NQ 946 42.67 95 NQ 64448 38.62 Cash Market (Deesan )Expected Price Range For February-27:Expected Range Rs/Qtl.(Low) Rs /Qtl.(High) Short term (5 days) 49-45 45-423 Medium Term (3 days) 4-42 48-43 Outlook For April-27: Castor seed cash market is likely to trade with steady to down zone as seed supply in domestic market is expected to be improved as new crops are ready now to sell. Improved yield and declining demand will push prices down in upcoming weeks.. In April, market may trade in the range of Rs 47 to Rs 43 per qtl. Farmers are selling their new crops and already holding crops at the current market prices as they expects further fall in the prices.

April, 26 International Market Updates: There is no change in Global Castor Seed supply demand side. Production is expected to decrease from 8.37 lakh tonne to 5.84 lakh tonne in 26-7 due to lower crop size expected in India this year. Total availability for seed would decrease to 2 lakh tonne including Indian carryout stock of 5.9 lakh tonne. Lower demand for oil and decreasing seed demand in India may push seed price down in India. India dominates global market in seed production with 9 percent contribution. The given diagram shows production contribution of various countries. As production in India is likely to decrease, availability for seed would contract in the third quarter of the year. Rotterdam Price:3, 28, 26, 24, 22, 2, 8, 6, 4, 2,, Rotterdam Price Trend($/T) Price Table: Castor Seed - Products Monthly Average Prices: Commodity Monthly Average Prices (Rs/ Quintal) Center Gujarat Rajasthan Market Change March. 27 February. 27 Patan 42 3789 42 Harij 4249 3759 49 Rajkot 47 3626 38 Gondal 3999 3626 373 Deesa 423 3765 464 Bhabar 436 3696 34 Mehsana 495 3746 449 Kadi 4268 3799 469 Sabarkatha 4236 374 496 Gandhi Nagar 4237 3779 458 Ahmedabad (Sanand) 424 3633 58 Halvad 48 3673 335 Junagadh 485 3642 443 Dhrol 3784 345 333 Jodhpur 4263 3725 539

April, 26 Sumerpur 456 3633 522 Castor Seed Cumulative Monthly Sum Arrivals in Key Centers: Center Market Monthly Arrivals (Quintal) Change March. 27 February. 27 Patan 7672 523 2586 Harij 333 6375 6925 Rajkot 45 946 629 Gondal 839 5835 224 Deesa 8 22 779 Bhabar NR NR - 775 788 88 2628 55656 46972 Sabarkatha 9225 3323 593 Gandhi Nagar 22875 9263 363 Ahmedabad (Sanand) 64 566 498 Halvad 427 279 29 Junagadh 46 9 27 Dhrol 287 8 79 Jodhpur 234 85 49 Sumerpur 28 3524 764 Total Arrivals/Above Markets 32694 7694 49964 Mehsana Gujarat Kadi Rajasthan Note: We have incorporated traded quantity of seed in particular mandis. It does not signify the total arrivals Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from the Company. IASL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment). Please see the detailed disclaimer at http://www.agriwatch.com/disclaimer.php 26 Indian Agribusiness Systems Pvt Ltd.