ENERGY SLIDESHOW Updated: July 5, 2018
ENERGY PRICES www.dallasfed.org/research/energy
Brent & WTI & Crude Brent Oil Crude Oil Dollars per barrel 140 120 Brent (Jun 29 = $75.24) WTI (Jun 29 = $74.03) 95% confidence bands for WTI 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 6/29/18. Dashed lines are forward curves. WTI is West Texas Intermediate. SOURCES: Bloomberg; Energy Information Administration.
Henry Hub Natural & Marcellus Gas Natural Gas Dollars per million British thermal units 7 6 Henry Hub (Jun 29 = $2.95) Marcellus (Jun 29 = $2.15) 95% confidence bands for Henry Hub 5 4 3 2 1 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 6/29/18. Dashed line is a forward curve. Marcellus price is an average of Dominion South, Transco Leidy Line, and Tennessee Zone 4 prices. SOURCES: Bloomberg; Wall Street Journal.
Retail Gasoline & Diesel Regular Gasoline & Highway Diesel Retail price per gallon PADD Gasoline Diesel 1 $2.77 $3.23 1A $2.88 $3.28 1B $2.91 $3.39 1C $2.65 $3.10 2 $2.76 $3.17 3 $2.60 $3.00 4 $2.97 $3.36 5 $3.39 $3.75 U.S. $2.84 $3.24 NOTES: Prices are for 7/2/18. PADDs are Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts. Prices include all taxes. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
GLOBAL PETROLEUM www.dallasfed.org/research/energy
World Oil Supply & Demand World Oil Supply & Demand Million barrels per day 102 100 Q2 2018 100.1 98 96 World production 99.8 94 92 World consumption Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NOTE: Dashed lines represent forecasts. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
World Oil Supply & Demand Implied Change in World Oil Stocks Million barrels per day 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NOTE: Shaded bars represent forecasts. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
OPEC OPEC Oil Production Crude Oil Production & Rig Count Million barrels per day 33.5 33.0 32.5 32.0 31.5 31.0 30.5 30.0 29.5 29.0 May 31.9 28.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 NOTES: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Dashed line represents a forecast. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
OECD Commercial Inventories OECD Commercial Oil Inventories Million barrels 3,200 3,100 3,000 2,900 May 2840 2,800 2,700 2010-2014 average 2,600 2,500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 NOTES: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Dashed line represents a forecast. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
OECD Commercial Inventories World Oil Production Outages Million barrels per day 3.0 OPEC 2.5 2.0 1.5 May 1.39 1.0 0.5 Non-OPEC 0.30 0.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 NOTE: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
NATIONAL OUTLOOK www.dallasfed.org/research/energy
U.S. Oil U.S. Production Oil & Gas Production & Rig Count U.S. crude oil production Million barrels per day U.S. natural gas production Billion cubic feet per day 11 110 10 100 9 90 8 80 7 70 6 60 5 50 4 40 3 30 2 20 1 10 1921 1929 1937 1945 1953 1961 1969 1977 1985 1993 2001 2009 2017 NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count U.S. crude oil production Million barrels per day 17 15 U.S. oil rig count Number of active rigs 1,700 1,500 13 11 9 7 5 Apr 10.47 Jun 858 1,300 1,100 900 700 500 3 300 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 NOTES: Dashed line shows the forecast as of 6/12/18. Rig count series shows the last weekly count each month. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.
Gasoline Demand U.S. Oil & Gas Employment Number of jobs (thousands) 420 380 340 300 260 220 Support activities for oil and gas operations Oil and gas extraction Apr 267 180 140 May 152 100 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Crude Oil & Product Inventories Commercial Crude Oil Inventories Million barrels 550 2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2018 2017 2016 2015 500 450 400 Apr 435 May 437 Jun 418 350 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 6/29/18. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Gasoline Demand Natural Gas Inventories Trillion cubic feet 4.5 2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2018 2017 2016 2015 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 Apr 1.4 May 1.8 Jun 2.1 0.5 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 6/29/18. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Gasoline Gasoline DemandInventories Million barrels 270 2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2018 2017 2016 2015 260 250 240 230 220 Apr 240 May 239 Jun 240 210 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 6/29/18. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Gasoline Distillate DemandInventories Million barrels 180 2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2018 2017 2016 2015 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 Apr 121 May 117 Jun 118 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 6/29/18. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Gasoline Demand Vehicle Miles Traveled Billion miles traveled 275 270 265 Apr 266 260 255 250 245 240 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 NOTES: Series is seasonally adjusted. Data are estimates based on hourly traffic count data at approximately 5,000 locations nationwide. SOURCE: Federal Highway Administration.
Gasoline Demand Gasoline Consumption Million barrels per day 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.0 2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2018 2017 2016 2015 Apr 9.19 May 9.50 Jun 9.70 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.2 8.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTES: Square marks based on weekly data as of 6/29/18. Gasoline consumption is estimated using product supplied. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
REGIONAL ACTIVITY www.dallasfed.org/research/energy
Texas Texas Oil Production Oil & Gas Production & Rig Count Texas crude oil production Million barrels per day 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 Texas natural gas production Billion cubic feet per day 40 35 30 25 20 15 1.0 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 10 NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Texas Oil Production & Rig Count Texas Oil Production & Rig Count Texas crude oil production Million barrels per day 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 Texas rig count Number of active rigs 950 850 750 650 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 Jun 530 Apr 4.22 550 450 350 250 1.5 150 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 NOTE: Rig count series shows the last weekly count each month. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.
Texas Texas Mining Oil & Sector Gas Employment Number of jobs (thousands) 210 190 170 150 Support activities for mining May 155.64 130 110 Oil and gas extraction 90 70 79.25 50 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics;.
12-Month Total Rig Change by County *Change in total rigs, from 6/30/2017 to 6/29/2018. SOURCES: Baker Hughes;.
3-Month Total Rig Change by County *Change in total rigs, from 3/30/2018 to 6/29/2018. SOURCES: Baker Hughes;.
Crude Oil Production by State NOTE: Data shown are monthly, for April 2018. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Natural Gas Production by State NOTES: Data shown are monthly, for April 2018. Series depicted is marketed natural gas production. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Crude Oil Production by Region Million barrels per day 4.0 3.5 3.0 Permian Basin 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Eagle Ford Bakken Niobrara Other areas NOTE: Series depict estimates after April 2018. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Natural Gas Production by Region Billion cubic feet per day 35 30 Appalachia 25 20 15 10 Permian Basin Haynesville 5 Other areas Eagle Ford 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NOTE: Series depict estimates after April 2018. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Energy Survey Business Activity In the current quarter vs. the prior quarter: has your firm s level of business activity increased, not changed or decreased? Diffusion index 100 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 -80-100 Q1 2016-42.1 13.8 Q2 2016 26.7 Q3 2016 40.1 41.8 37.3 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 27.3 Q3 2017 38.1 40.7 44.5 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 NOTES: Index is the percentage of firms reporting an increase in activity since the prior quarter minus the percentage reporting a decrease. Positive values reflect expansion in oil and gas activity, negative values reflect contraction and zero reflects no change since last quarter. SOURCE:.
Breakeven Prices for New Wells Dallas Fed Energy Survey In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What WTI oil price does your firm need to profitably drill a new well? Dollars per barrel 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Permian (Midland) Permian (Delaware) Bakken $47 $49 $50 Permian (Other) SCOOP/ STACK Other U.S. (Shale) $52 $53 $54 Other U.S. (Non-shale) 15 13 4 18 7 7 34 Number of responses $55 NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses. 65 E&P firms answered this question from March 14-22, 2018. SOURCE:.
Shut-in Prices for Existing Wells Dallas Fed Energy Survey In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What WTI oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells? Dollars per barrel 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Permian (Midland) SCOOP/ STACK $25 $27 Permian (Delaware) $30 Other U.S. (Shale) $32 Permian (Other) Bakken $37 $38 Other U.S. (Non-shale) 15 6 13 7 18 4 35 Number of responses $40 NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses. 66 E&P firms answered this question from March 14-22, 2018. SOURCE:.
Additional Resources Energy Indicators A monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the energy sector Quarterly Energy Update Concise analysis of the latest major developments and key changes facing global oil and gas markets Dallas Fed Energy Survey A quarterly assessment of energy activity as reported by 150 oil and gas firms located in the Eleventh District Energy in the 11 th District Detailed info on four major regions: the Barnett Shale, Eagle Ford Shale, Haynesville Shale and Permian Basin Other energy articles and research Click here to contact us for general information or other inquiries.