MANE VU Technical Support Committee OTC/MANE VU Spring Meeting June 6 7, 218 Baltimore, MD
Overview 1. Regional Haze SIPs 2 nd Planning Period Schedule 2. Visibility Report Monitoring Data 3. EI Trends Report 4. Consultation/MANE VU Ask 5. Modeling 2
Regional Haze SIP 2 nd Planning Period Schedule Decisions on Methods IMPROVE Data Analysis 1 st and 2 nd Planning Period Calculations, QA, and TSD (June 218) 211/228 Alpha 2 & TSD Inventory Development & Analysis Emissions Trends Analysis 211 Base Case Modeling Modeling 228 Base Case Modeling (June 218) 228 Control Case Modeling (July 218) Document Modeling Platform and Results (Except 228 Modeling) Qc/d CALPUFF Assessment Back Trajectory & IMPROVE Data Analysis Four Factor Analysis/Contribution Assessment 4 Factor Data Collection HEDD Analysis Winter EGU NOx Control Synthesize Assessments Updating RPGs Draft RPGs and Document (Summer 218) Consultation SIP Submission Establish Consultation Process Intra RPO Consultation (Except Documentation) Inter RPO Consultation (Except Documentation) SIP Submission (Before 219) Rule Adoption 3
Visibility Report Maine developed reports based on original by NESCAUM examining Visibility Data RHR III Metric Required for analyses for 2 nd planning period 1 st Planning Period Metric For later 5 year lookback submissions Status/Next Steps Under 21 Day EPA/FLM Review Final IMPROVE RHR III data released last week one last update needed Expected Finalization by End of May 4
35 3 25 2 15 1 5 214 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 217 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 217 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 216 218 deciviews 1 st RH SIP Planning Period Metrics Visibility is Improving Current Levels are Below 218 RPGs 2% Worst Days 2% Best Days No Deg. 218 RPG Acadia, ME Brigantine, NJ Great Gulf, NH Moosehorn, ME Lye Brook, VT ACAD1 BRIG1 GRGU1 MOOS1 RHTS_LYBR Progress at Monitored Class I States in MANE VU using IMPROVE RHII Algorithm 5
35 3 25 2 15 1 5 214 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 217 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 217 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 216 218 deciviews 2 nd RH SIP Planning Period Metrics Visibility is Improving Current Levels are Below 228 URP 2% Most Impaired Days 2% Clearest Days No Deg. 228 URP Acadia, ME Brigantine, NJ Great Gulf, NH Moosehorn, ME Lye Brook, VT ACAD1 BRIG1 GRGU1 MOOS1 RHTS_LYBR Progress at Monitored Class I States in MANE VU using IMPROVE RH III Algorithm 6
Winter Nitrates Contribution Increasing 7
Annual SO 2 Emissions from NEI, 22 14 1,4 1,2 22 28 211 214 SO 2 (Thousands Tons) 1, 8 6 4 2 CT DE DC ME MD MA NH NJ NY PA RI VT MANE VU States AL FL IL IN KY LA MI MO OH TN TX VA WV Contributing States 8
Annual NO X Emissions from NEI, 22 14 2, 1,8 22 28 211 214 1,6 NO x (Thousand Tons) 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 CT DE DC ME MD MA NH NJ NY PA RI VT MANE VU States AL FL IL IN KY LA MI MO OH TN TX VA WV Contributing States 9
MANE VU Ask MANE VU States Ensure effective use of installed controls on EGUs (>=25 MW) yearround 4 factor analysis for most important sources (>3Mm 1 extinction) Complete 27 low sulfur fuel oil rule Update permits and/or rules to reflect already achieved rates for SO 2, NO X, and PM 2.5 Strive to meet particular NO X emissions standards or perform 4 factor analysis on HEDD units Increase energy efficiency and implement CHP or other DG Upwind States Ensure effective use of installed controls on EGUs (>=25 MW) yearround 4 factor analysis for most important sources (>3Mm 1 extinction) Complete 27 low sulfur fuel oil rule Update permits and/or rules to reflect already achieved rates for SO 2, NO X, and PM 2.5 Increase energy efficiency and implement CHP or other DG Signed August 25, 217 FLMs / EPA FLMs consult with MANE VU Class I States when scheduling prescribed burns EPA develop measures that will further reduce emissions from heavy duty onroad vehicles EPA ensure that Class I Area state Asks are addressed in contributing state SIPs prior to approval Including the Ask in photochemical modeling underway 1
MANE VU Inter RPO Consultation Introduction 1/2/17 Technical Discussion 12/1/217 MANE VU Analysis Review 12/18/17 Upwind State Feedback 1/12/18 Commissioners 3/23/18 Between MANE VU and contributing states, as identified using weighted contribution analysis Five Webinars between 1/2/17 and 3/23/18 Consultation Report Under 21 day review by EPA Minutes out for comment with Upwind States Response to Upwind States 11
Changes in Annual Emissions (ERTAC) On Implementing MV Ask Thousands Tons SO 2 NO X 16 Base... + LSFO... + Ask 2 7 Base Non OS Rate... + HEDD... + Ask 2 14 6 12 5 1 8 6 4 3 4 2 2 1 CT DE MA MD ME NH NJ NY PA RI VT IL IN MI MN OH WI AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN VA WV CT DE MA MD ME NH NJ NY PA RI VT IL IN MI MN OH WI AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN VA WV MANE VU LADCO SESARM MANE VU LADCO SESARM 12
Changes in Annual SO 2 Emissions (EMF) On Implementing MV Ask Thousands Tons Point Sources NonPoint Sources 9 8 Base + Ask2 + HEDD + LSFO 1 9 Base + LSFO 7 8 6 7 5 4 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 CT DC* DE MA MD* ME NH* NJ NY PA RI VT IL IN MI MN OH WI AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN VA WV AR IA KS LA MO NE OK TX CT DC* DE MA MD* ME NH* NJ NY PA RI VT IL IN MI MN OH WI AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN VA WV AR IA KS LA MO NE OK TX MANE VU LADCO SESARM CENSARA MANE VU LADCO SESARM CENSARA * Note: Several States in MANE VU have implemented some or all of the LSFO rule, but do not include it in their FY projections 13
In Summary Nearing completion of 2 nd Planning Period Regional Haze SIP work Have documented visibility and inventory trends The Ask is final for the 2 nd Planning Period Both Intra and Inter RPO consultations are done, and documentation nearly finished Inventory development for base case and control case modeling is completed and modeling is underway Results still need to be documented, but remainder of documentation is nearly complete 14