U.S. Rice Growers Face Higher Prices and Tighter Supplies in 217/18 217 Rice Outlook Conference December 12, 217 Nathan Childs Economic Research Service USDA Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Estimates and forecasts are from the December 217 WASDE.
PART 1 THE 217/18 GLOBAL RICE MARKET SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
The 217/18 Global Rice Market: Overview Global rice production of 483.5 million tons (milled basis) is projected to be.7 percent below the 216/17 record. Smaller crops in Bangladesh, Brazil, Egypt, India, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and the United States more than offset larger production in Burma, China, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam. Global harvested area is projected at 16.2 million hectares, down.6 million hectares from 216/17, as reductions in Bangladesh, Egypt, India, Philippines, and the United States more than offset expanded rice area in Burma, Cambodia, Thailand, and Sri Lanka. Global supplies increase to a record 621.5 million tons, a result of a 4-percent larger carryin.
Global rice supplies in 217/18 are projected to be record high MIL. TONS 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Global Carryin Global Production 9/91 95/96 /1 5/6 9/1 12/13 17/18 Milled basis. 217/18 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
Global 217/18 Rice Harvested Area: Economic Rationale for Contractions United States: Total harvested are dropped 22.8 percent (285K ha). Main Factor: A weak long-grain price outlook at planting. Plus: Heavy rainfall and flooding early in the season in California and in much of the South, especially in Arkansas. And: Late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes struck near the end of harvest. In Bangladesh, severe spring and summer flooding reduced harvested area 4 percent (448K ha), mostly impacting the Aman crop. India s rice area dropped 1 percent (49k ha) due to drought-like conditions in central India in July-Sept and August flooding in the east. Egypt s rice harvested area dropped 1 percent due to stricter area controls and shifts in planting to cotton & corn. The Philippines rice area is projected to drop 5 percent (223k ha), mostly due to expectations of increased imports in 218.
Global 217/18 Harvested Area: Economic Rationale for Expansions Ideal rainfall, adequate reservoir levels, higher farm-gate prices boosted Thailand s rice area 4.4 percent, to a near-normal 1.7 million hectares, after severe drought in 214/15 and 215/16 sharply reduced output. Sri Lanka s rice area is expected to increase 48 percent (325K ha) to 1. million hectares from the 216/17 abnormally small level that was sharply impacted by severe flooding and then severe drought. Continued high producer price support in China increased area 4, hectares despite huge stocks and record imports. Both Burma and Cambodia continue their long-term area recovery & export expansion.
The 217/18 Global Rice Market: Decreases in Production Country Quantity Percent India 2.65 million tons -2.4 percent Bangladesh 1.58 million tons -4.6 percent United States 1.45 million tons -2.4 percent Brazil 563, tons -6.7 percent Egypt 5, tons -1.4 percent Philippines 486, tons -4.2 percent Madagascar 394, tons -16.1 percent South Korea 225, tons -5.4 percent Japan 18, tons -2.3 percent Indonesia 15, tons -.4 percent Colombia 138, tons - 8. percent
The 217/18 Global Rice Market: Increases in Production Country Quantity Percent Thailand 1.2 million tons +6.3 percent China 1.15 million tons +.8 percent Sri Lanka 93, tons +45.2 percent Vietnam 9, tons +4.3 percent Burma 3, tons +2.4 percent Peru 261, tons +11.9 percent Paraguay 141, tons +28.1 percent Bolivia 97, tons +7.3 percent Cote d Ivoire 95, tons +7.1 percent Cambodia 5, tons +1. percent Pakistan 5, tons +.7 percent
The 217/18 Global Rice Market: Domestic Use and Ending Stocks At 48.8 million tons, global consumption (including a residual) is.6 million tons below the 216/17 record and 2.7 million tons below 217/18 production. Indonesia, Thailand, and the United States account for most of the expected decline in global consumption (including a residual component) in 217/18. In contrast, rice consumption in 217/18 is projected to increase in China, Egypt, India, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Vietnam. Global ending stocks of 14.7 million tons are projected up 2.7 million tons from 216/17 and are the highest since 2/1.
MILL. TONS Global ending stocks in 217/18 are projected to be the highest since 2/1 PERCENT 175 15 125 Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio 5 4 1 3 75 2 5 25 1 8/81 85/86 9/91 95/96 2/3 7/8 11/12 17/18 217/18 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 217/18 MIL. TONS 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 China India Thailand Rest of World 199/91 1995/96 2/1 25/6 21/11 217/18 217/18 are forecasts. Milled basis. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
However, ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining MIL. TONS 5 India Thailand Vietnam United States Pakistan 4 3 2 1 2/21 4/5 8/9 11/12 14/15 17/18 217/18 are forecasts. Milled basis. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
Global rice trade in CY 218 is projected to drop 1.6 percent to 45.5 million tons, the second highest on record Exporter 218 Exports (1, tons) Change from 217 Burma 3, -1 Thailand 1,2-8 Uruguay 9-19 Vietnam 6,5-1 Australia 325 +145 Pakistan 3,8 +2 Cambodia 1,25 +1 India 11,6 Unchanged record United States 3,4 Unchanged China 1,1 Unchanged
with Iran, Nigeria, and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 218 Importer 218 Imports (1, tons) Change from 217 Iran 13-3 Nigeria 23-2 Sri Lanka 4-4 Brazil 6-2 Bangladesh 12-15 Malaysia 9-1 Kenya 7-1 China 525-5 Cote d Ivoire Record 15 +15 Philippines 17 +6 Guinea 8 +75 Iraq 11 +5
About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually, double the share 25 year ago MILL. TONS 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Rice Trade Trade Share of Production 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 213 217 217 and 218 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd. PERCENT 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Thailand and India are projected to remain the top rice exporting countries in 217 and 218 MIL. TONS Major Exporters 12. 1. 8. 6. 215 216 217 218 4. 2.. India Thailand Vietnam Pakistan USA Burma 217 and 218 forecasts. These countries account for about 85 percent of global rice exports. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
Burma s 217 rice exports are the highest since before WWII 1, TONS 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 BURMA CAMBODIA 21 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 218 217 and 218 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
After more than decade of decline, China s rice exports now exceed 1 million tons Mil. tons 4. 3.5 3. Exports 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 1961 1971 1981 1991 21 211 218 217 and 218 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
and China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria MIL. TONS 6 5 China Nigeria 4 3 2 1 21 212 214 216 218 217 and 218 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
Cote d Ivoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 218 1, TONS 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 214 215 216 217 218 Philippines EU Cote Saudi Iran Iraq d'ivoire Arabia 217 and 218 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
Rice consumption, production, and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa 1, TONS 4 35 Consumption Production Imports 3 25 2 15 1 5 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 216/17 217/18 217 and 218 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
The U.S. price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring $/TON U.S. No. 2 Long-grain Vietnam's 5 Percent Brokens Thai 1 % Grade B $1,2 $1,1 $1, $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ December 217 first week only. All prices quoted free-on-board vessel at local port. Sources: Thai quotes, U.S. Ag Counselor, Bangkok; U.S. and Vietnam quotes, Creed Rice Market Report.
PART 2 THE U.S. 217/18 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK
The U.S. 217/18 Rice Market: Main Points Declining prices and historic flooding at planting, plus small impacts from late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes, resulted in a 27-percent drop in U.S. long-grain harvested area. California harvested area dropped 15 percent due to heavy winter rains, historic snowpack, and resulting flooding. A 2-percent drop in all rice U.S. production is projected to pull U.S. supplies down more than 15 percent from the 216/17 near-record level. Total use domestic and residual use plus exports is projected to decline 12 percent, with both categories projected to be smaller. Total ending stocks of all rice are projected to drop 33 percent, with the stocks-to-use ratio of 14.2 percent, near-normal. Prices for both classes of rice in the South and for medium- and shortgrain in California are projected to be higher in 217/18 than in 216/17.
Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 217 ARKANSAS CALIFORNIA LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI MISSOURI 215 216 217 TEXAS 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1, ACRES) Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Production, November 217, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA.
Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in U.S. rice production in 217 ARKANSAS CALIFORNIA LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI MISSOURI 215 216 217 TEXAS 2 4 6 8 1 12 Million cwt (rough rice) Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Production, November 217, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA.
A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulled U.S. production down 2 percent in 217/18 MILL. CWT 3 275 25 225 2 175 15 125 1 75 5 25 PRODUCTION HARVESTED AREA. 81/82 86/87 91/92 96/97 1/2 6/7 11/12 17/18 AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR Rough basis. 217/18 are forecasts. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA.. MILL. ACRES 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5
After 2 years of decline, U.S. rice imports are projected to increase in 217/18 MILL. CWT PERCENT 28 24 2 16 12 8 4 IMPORTS 1/ SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2/ 28 24 2 16 12 8 4 82/83 87/88 92/93 97/98 2/3 8/9 12/13 17/18 AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR 217/18 are forecasts. 1/ Rough basis. 2/ Does not include seed use. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA.
Mill. CWT U.S. rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 217/18 35 3 Carryin Production Imports 25 2 15 1 5 92/93 95/96 98/99 1/12 4/5 7/8 1/11 13/14 17/18 Rough basis. 217/18 are forecasts. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA..
12 9 6 3 Both U.S rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 217/18 1/ MILL. CWT 15 DOMESTIC & RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 17/18 AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR Rough-rice basis. 217/18 are forecasts. 1/ Domestic use includes a residual component. Sources: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA.
Latin America typically accounts for about 6 percent of U.S. rice exports 1, TONS 5 Mexico Other Latin America Rest-of-World 4 3 2 1 9/91 93/94 96/97 99/ 2/3 5/6 8/9 11/12 16/17 Product-weight. Does not include groats, meal, or flour. Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Global Agricultural Trade System, https://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx
MILL. CWT Both U.S. milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 217/18 1 8 MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS 6 4 2 9/91 94/95 98/99 2/3 6/7 1/11 14/15 17/18 AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR Rough basis. 217/18 are forecasts. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA.
U.S. exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 217/18 MILL. CWT 12 1 8 6 4 2 LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN 9/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 17/18 AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR Rough basis. 217/18 are forecasts. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA.
Through November 3, U.S. all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier, with rough-rice most of the decline 1, TONS Milled Brown Rough 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Dec. 1, 216 Nov. 3, 217 Product-weight. Shipments plus outstanding sales. Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, weekly U.S. Export Sales report.
However, U.S. long-grain exports were 9 percent above a year earlier, with milled rice all of the increase 1, TONS Milled Brown Rough 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Dec. 1, 216 Nov. 3, 217 Product-weight. Shipments plus outstanding sales. Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, weekly U.S. Export Sales report.
While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 3 1, TONS Milled Brown Rough 6 5 4 3 2 1 Dec. 1 216 Nov. 3, 217 Product-weight. Shipments plus outstanding sales. Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, weekly U.S. Export Sales report.
Through November 3, U.S long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq, Haiti, and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago Long-grain MEXICO HAITI CENTRAL AMERICA Dec 1, 216 VENEZUELA COLOMBIA Nov. 3, 217 IRAQ 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 1, tons Product-weight. Shipments plus outstanding sales. Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, weekly U.S. Export Sales report
But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia, N. Africa, and Middle East Japan Medium- and short-grain Korea Taiwan Turkey Jordan Dec. 1, 216 Nov. 3, 217 Libya 3 6 9 12 15 18 1, tons Product-weight. Shipments plus outstanding sales. Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, weekly U.S. Export Sales report
U.S. Export Opportunities and Concerns Will Venezuela remain a top buyer of U.S. rice? Venezuela has been a critical market for U.S. rice in recent years, despite political turmoil. Will competition from South American exporters in Mexico and Central America increase? Any additional U.S. sales to Iraq? Any U.S. sales to Iran? U.S. sales to China? Will Turkey and Libya return as buyers of U.S. rice?
U.S. all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 217/18 MILL. CWT 6 3 ENDING STOCKS STOCKS-TO-USE 5 25 PERCENT 4 2 3 15 2 1 1 5 87/88 9/91 93/94 96/97 99/ 2/3 5/6 8/9 11/12 14/15 17/18 AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR Rough basis. 217/18 are forecasts. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA..
U.S. season-average farm prices for both classes of rice are projected to be higher in 217/18 $/CWT 3 25 All rice Long-grain U.S. medium- and short-grain 2 15 1 5 217/18 are forecasts. Source: Quick Stats, NASS, USDA, http://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/.
Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 217/18 $/CWT 3 25 2 15 1 5 CALIFORNIA 2/ OTHER STATES 3/ 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Market years 2/ 217/18 are projected. 1/ Season-average rough-rice for medium- and short-grain rice first reported by region for the 28/9 market year. 2/ October-September market year. 3/ August-July market year. Source: Quick Stats data base, NASS, USDA. http://www.nass.usda.gov/quick_stats/.
PART 3 A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE U.S. 218/19 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK
218/19 U.S. Rice Market: Source and release schedule All 218/19 domestic forecasts are from the 217 Agricultural Baseline Projections located at: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/projections/index.htm All Baseline forecasts are based on the November 217 WASDE. The full report and the global trade tables will be released in February 218. USDA will release updated domestic supply and use forecasts for 218/19 at the 218 Agricultural Outlook Forum in February. The first U.S. and global WASDE forecasts for 218/19 will be released in May 218.
218/19 U.S. Rice Market: Supply-Side Outlook Assumes normal weather worldwide and a continuation of current policies. Based on November 217 WASDE.. Carryin for both classes of rice is projected down sharply from 217/18 and below recent 5-year averages. Planted area expected to increase 17 percent to 2.9 million acres, with long-grain (2.175 million acres) accounting for most of the expansion. Medium and short grain area projected at 725, acres and California s area is projected to return to normal. Total harvested area projected to increase 2 percent. All rice yield increases almost 3 percent based on 1-year trends by class, 2 nd highest on record. Long-grain yield projected to rise the most.
218/19 U.S. Rice Market: Supply-Side Outlook--Continued Production increases more than 23 percent to 22 mcwt, with long grain projected to increase almost 28 percent to 161 mcwt and medium and short projected to increase 13.5 percent to 59 mcwt. Imports are expected to increase.8 percent with Asian aromatic rice classified as long-grain accounting for all of the increase. Total U.S. rice supplies are expected to increase more than 1 percent.
218/19 U.S. Rice Market: Demand and Price Outlook Big increase projected for total domestic & residual use, mostly due to a larger crop. Long-grain accounts for the bulk of the expected increase in domestic use. Increased exports of both class of rice, with medium- and short-grain increasing at the fastest pace.
218/19 U.S. Rice Market: Demand and Price Outlook--Continued A substantial increase in U.S. ending stocks, with long-grain accounting for the bulk of the increase. Farm prices for both classes of rice in the South and in California are projected to decline in 218/19, mostly due to the much larger U.S. supplies.
For More Information, Please Go To: The Economic Research Service Home Page http:// www.ers.usda.gov World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/ Grains: World Markets and Trade Reports https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/grain-worldmarkets-and-trade Production, Supply and Distribution data base https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home The Rice Topics Page http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/rice.aspx Long-Term Agricultural Projections 218/18-227/28 https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/projections/index.htm