1 Tradeoff and synergy of water- Energy-Food Nexus in Asia-Pacific region Makoto Taniguchi Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN) Kyoto, Japan
(1) Planetary boundary (2) Global development Nitrogen flow?? Rockstrorm, 2011??? Ocean acidity Latest data 90-00 70-80 50-60 Pre- Ind. l water /person 10 4 10 3 10 2 Water 10 1 10 2 GDP/person [$] (3) Transformation toward sustainability Food Energy http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.pcap.cd?page=2 http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?data_set_group_id=757 http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/file:energy_consumption_versus_gdp.png
Unsustainable water Use mm/y A:GW recharge mm/y B:GW pumping Wada et al., 2010 mm/ 年 A-B:GW depletion GW recharge GW pumping = GW storage change
Unsustainable Groundwater Use Wada et al., GRL, 2010 Groundwater Footprint Glesson et al., 2013 Increase of GW depletion: 126 billion ton/y (1960) 283 billion ton/y (2000) GF/Aa = 3.5
800 700 Water use in Asia (countries, sectors) Total water consumption (billion m3 ) 800 600 400 Agriculture (Billion m3 ) 600 500 400 200 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 India China Pakistan Indonesia Japan 300 200 100 200 150 100 Industry (Billion m3 ) 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 India China Pakistan Indonesia Japan 50 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 India China Pakistan Indonesia Japan
Trade of unsustainable GW through agricultural production Contribution of Non-renewable Groundwater to Irrigation for India and US Outer circle: Export Inner circle: Import Export: India, Pakistan, China, US Import: Japan, China Dalin et al. (2017; Nature)
Water Energy Food Nexus Water B. Water for energy C. Energy for water Nexus C Energy A. Water for food Land D D. Energy for food Ferroukhi et al., 2015 A B E Food E. Food for energy
Entry point Climate change Land use change Ferroukhi et al., 2015 IRENA, 2015 Change of trade policy Poverty Labor 8
Food & Water security and trade Consumption Production Wheat *Less Security(self-sufficiency) *Domestic water/energy saving *More consumption of water/energy outside Food production/consumption in Japan Beef 1960 2015 Rice Pork Chicken Lee, S. & Taniguchi, M. (in preparation) 9
Scenario Nexus Model Consumption Land-use Trade SSR (%) Portfolio Water footprint Land productivity Energy 4 cultivation Energy 4 Irrigation CO₂ footprint Variables (wheat) Business as usual Scenario: 2025 Scenario: 2025 Target SSR Food consumption 2016 2025 2025 Food trade User assumption User assumption User assumption Land use 2016 2025 2025 Target of food selfsufficiency (%) Wheat Rice 100% 100% 80% Wheat 13% 13% 20% import water for food Trade-off Food security Water saving Energy saving CO₂ emission Lee and Taniguchi (2017) in preparation Quantification Assessment Food production and consumption (ton) Environmental & Water use for food production (m³) Socio-Economic impacts Energy use for food production (GJ) CO₂ emission by fuels and electricity (ton) Sustainability production energy for food 10 CO2 emission for food (CO2 from trade will be reduced)
Disconnection of governances for water, energy, and food Ministry of Environment Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Consumption of resources Production of resources Conservation vs Development Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry New Comers Energy vs Water Hot spring power generation Micro hydropower Ministry of Construction, Ministry of Agriculture, Forest and fishery Ministry of Construction, Ministry of Agriculture, Forest and fishery Municipal authority of water National vs Municipal
Synergy of Water-Energy-Food Nexus Kumamoto city depends on 100 % of groundwater as water resources which is recharged at outside of the Kumamoto city Ariake Sea Kumamoto city area: 390km 2 population 730,000 Groundwater Shira River Groundwater recharge irrigation Mt. Aso Paddy field rice
Synergy of Water-Energy-Food Nexus Annual rainfall (mm) Groundwater level altitude (m) 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Linear Monthly Annual approximation of average the water levels rainfall 1965 1997 water level GW depletion: Δ0.5 m / 15 yr (However GW pumping: Δ40 Mt/20yr) Transboundary governance Increase in impermeable area (90 230km２) due to urbanization and unused paddy fields Decrease in GW recharge rate ü Nexus Synergy: Rice productions with groundwater recharge as well as groundwater use in downstream without any additional energy for water allocation. Kumamoto city pays subsidies to farmers who put water into their paddy fields outside of Kumamoto Increase in GW level and discharge from Ezu Lake
Transdisciplinary research towards sustainability Society Science in Society (Ehime, Japan) Saijo city (more water)/matsuyama city (less water) Science Impacts of transboundary water on decrease in GW & saltwater intrusion Lack of sci. knowledge on interaction between SW & GW Citizens took photo of river everyday New sci. knowledges are obtained, and GW as Commons is conceptualized Minimum discharge of 3.5 tom/sec in the river will be legislated (1) Optimal groundwater governance with social/scientific problems, discourse, and practice, as science in society (transdisciplinary) in Ehime, Japan. Precise integrated model on interaction between SW & GW and policy options
Summary (1) Unsustainable uses of groundwater are expanded globally, particularly in Asia, through agricultural productions and consumptions. (2) A Nexus model to analyze the change of the nexus structure, is developed with several modules and entry points including climate/land cover changes and trade policy. (3) Synergy of water-energy-food nexus in Kumamoto, Japan, is shown as rice productions with groundwater recharge as well as groundwater use in downstream without any additional energy for water allocation. (4)Optimal groundwater governance with social/scientific problems, discourse, and practice, are shown as science in society (transdisciplinary) in Saijo, Ehime, Japan. (5) water-energy-food nexus with integrated data set/model, indices, and tradeoff/synergy scenario with stakeholders (transdisciplinary) can be one of the models of the studies for transformation toward the sustainability.