Prospectiva y Estrategia Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change www.prospektiker.es Ibon Zugasti i.zugasti@prospektiker.es Turku, Finland, June 2015
OBJECT AND SCOPE MAIN OBJECTIVE: To provide inputs for the strategic planning of Horizon 2020 and insights for future European research and innovation policies on the topic (WEF Nexus). To contribute to mainstreaming climate change mitigation and adaptation research and innovation policy and strategies reinforcing considerations of water, energy and food security. SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES: Deliver a report fulfilling the objective of the study. Organise a workshop. Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 2
OBJECT AND SCOPE SCOPE: For each of the three sections (Water, energy and food): Main signals and trends of technological and societal innovations, possible disruptive events. Emerging priorities for R&I and an assessment of their potential to catalyse business opportunities. Main research and innovation challenges and opportunities. Focusing on the cross cutting aspects and interconnections in the WEF nexus, including implications from climate change. Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 3
OBJECT AND SCOPE SCOPE: Figure Understanding the nexus. The water, energy and food nexus. Source: Botín Foundation. Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 4
WORK PLAN AND METHODOLOGY We are here Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 5
CHARACTERISTICS Real time Delphi method used, in cooperation with the Millennium Project Questionnaire divided in 3 parts: 14 documented future statements/hypothesis 3 open questions on policies, instruments and implementation Last question on Disruptive Events (with 18 different disruptive events) Questions included probability of occurrence (2020, 2030 & 2050), impact on WEF Nexus and research & innovation proposals. 159 participants world wide Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 6
ORIGIN OF EXPERTS Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 7
GENDER OF EXPERTS Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 8
FUTURE STATEMENTS/HYPOTHESIS 1. Circular economy and resource use efficiency. Moving towards a circular economy in Europe is at the heart of the Europe 2020 resource efficiency agenda. Additional measures to increase resource productivity and recover by 30% by 2030 could boost GDP by nearly 1%, while creating 2 million additional jobs. Source: European Commission, 2015. 2. Water pollution. Increasing pressures associated with "diffuse pollution" from agriculture (nitrates and fertilizers) and emerging contaminants (pharmaceuticals and endocrine disruptors) may prevent many European waters from achieving European water quality standards within the next 10 to 15 years. Source: EEA, 2012 3. Groundwater. Vision for groundwater governance aims that by 2030 there are appropriate and implemented legal, regulatory and institutional frameworks for groundwater that establish public guardianship, collective responsibility, and stakeholders engagement, including other uses of the subsurface space and its resources. Source: FAO, 2015 Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 9
FUTURE STATEMENTS/HYPOTHESIS 4. Water reuse and recycling. Water reuse and recycling practices can substantially reduce the use of water by the different sectors and has been set as one of the European Commission s Water Blueprint objectives. Sources: EC, 2012 5. Food waste. Reducing world food waste and loss by a half by 2050 would diminish by 22% the food production growth requirements to meet the global food demand. 6. Ecosystem services. New methods to account for the capital and value of ecosystems, like the Ecosystem Capital Accounts being developed by EEA, are foreseen as the approach to delivering ecosystem accounts and have them considered in policy making in the future. Source: EEA, 2015; EC, 2013 7. Climate change. As temperature increases, it is very likely that the number and intensity of hot extremes and heat waves will increase globally, posing important constraints to energy production. Projected changes in precipitation vary significantly between regions. Source: IPCC, 2013 Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 10
FUTURE STATEMENTS/HYPOTHESIS 8. Efficient cooling. The application of efficient cooling systems for thermal power generation has a great potential to reduce water use by energy. 9. Low water consumption renewables. Photovoltaic (PV) and wind have a great potential as low carbon-low water consuming energies. Research on reducing costs and coupling to other processes to overcome the intermittency problem should be potentiated to achieve market competence and widespread adoption. Source: EWEA, 2014; ECN, 2014 10.Fracking. Global demand for natural gas is expected to increase by more than half by 2035, with unconventional gas accounting for 60% of global supply growth. However, there is uncertainty over the potential development of an upscale shale gas deployment in Europe due to concerns over water management challenges and potential environmental risks, together with social opposition and crossed interests with national energy strategies. Source: IEA, 2011a Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 11
FUTURE STATEMENTS/HYPOTHESIS 11.2nd Generation biofuels. By 2050 biofuels provide 27% of total transport fuel, and avoid around 2.1 Gt CO2 emissions per year. To meet this vision in a sustainable way, the most cost, GHG efficient biofuels will be needed with special preponderance of advanced water efficient biofuels that do not compete with food. Increasing scale and efficiency improvements will reduce biofuel production costs. 12.Saline agriculture. Use of saline water for agriculture is expected to increase. Changing to salt-tolerant crops and better water management practices could help reduce dependence on freshwater of agriculture. Source: Global Futures Intelligent System, The Millennium Project 13.Behaviour and sustainable consumption. By 2050 the concept of Living well will be decoupled from the consumption of physical products, and aligned with economic, environmental and social sustainability. Sustainable consumption will become a mainstream phenomenon. Source: WBCSD - World Business Council for Sustainable Development, 2011 Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 12
FUTURE STATEMENTS/HYPOTHESIS 14.Diets. Economic development and improvement of lifestyles are driving changes in diets towards high water footprint products (meat, fish, high value vegetables). Projections for world meat demand hoover around 455 million tonnes by 2050, a 76% increase compared to 2005 levels. Source: FAO, 2013; FAO, 2012. Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 13
POLICIES 15.Policies. Assess the probability of each of the following policy actions occurring in the EU for the time horizons proposed: 1. Integration of water, energy and food policies; 2. Political will and transparency; 3. Adoption of participative resource governance 16.Economic instruments. Assess the probability of each of the following situations occurring for the time horizons proposed: 1. Elimination of perverse subsidies and incentives; 2. Increase in the price of water to reflect service cost; 3. Internalization of carbon pricing; 4. Increased volatility in food prices 17.Implementation. Assess the probability of each of the following situations occurring in Europe for the time horizons proposed: 1. Favourable regulation for technology adoption; 2.Capacity building in new technologies; 3. Effective science-policy communication Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 14
DISRUPTIVE EVENTS: 18.DR1. Research and development in nanotechnologies causes a breakthrough in water technologies. DR2. Deployment of disruptive technologies such as LENR (Low Energy Nuclear Reaction) at scale DR3. Widespread application of smart grids and Intelligent Technologies (IT) for resource management and distribution DR4. Widespread implementation of decentralized solutions in rural and remote areas DR5. Development of advanced Carbon Capture and Storage technologies with minimized water requirements DR6. New solutions for the wide deployment of cheap energy storage DR7. Massive climate change related water disasters (floods/droughts) causing crop failures and limitations to energy production DR8. Innovations in hydrogen technologies driving a shift of the vehicle fleet and a new alternative source of water production DR9. Wastewater treatment plants becoming self-sufficient in energy or net energy generators Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 15
DISRUPTIVE EVENTS: DR10. Urban agriculture becoming widely adopted with significance contribution to urban food supply DR11. Regulations enabling the sale of surplus decentralized energy production to the grid (i.e. Net Metering) DR12. Drastic (positive) breakthrough in renewable energy desalination DR13. Depletion of fisheries and extended degradation of aquatic ecosystems DR14. Massive migrations due to natural disasters, wars, water scarcity DR15. Extreme social backlash against GMO s leading to a complete phase-out DR16. Widespread application of solar pumping for water extraction and distribution DR17. Committed adoption of Human Rights and Sustainable Development Goals driving a clear shift towards sustainable roadmaps DR18. Rapid commercial scaling up of artificial food- production Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 16
OPEN QUESTIONS: 19.Do you think regulation is a driver or a barrier to innovation? 20.What social innovation approaches or strategies could be helpful to strengthen the potential contributions of society in dealing with the water-energy-food nexus challenges? 21.Final comments on this foresight study Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 17
ONLINE QUESTIONNAIRE: Millennium Project Global Futures Intelligence System (GFIS) Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 18
Statements: Probability of occurrence (2020, 2030 & 2050) Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 19
Statements: Probability of occurrence (2020) Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 20
Statements: Probability of occurrence (2030) Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 21
Statements: Probability of occurrence (2050) Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 22
Disruptive Events: Impact Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 23
Disruptive Events: Probability of occurrence (2020, 2030 & 2050) Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 24
Disruptive Events: Probability of occurrence (2020) Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 25
Disruptive Events: Probability of occurrence (2030) Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 26
Disruptive Events: Probability of occurrence (2050) Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 27
LEVEL OF EXPERTISE Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 28
SOME METHODOLOGICAL LEARNINGS Do we trust our experts? Need to have a good sample of experts in different countries. How to give incentives for participation (money, results, )? Specialised experts tend to overestimate their opinions The more interesting input comes usually from the comments Number of statements? 20-25 is usually the best, but some had up to 100 statements and lots of answers Others? Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change 29