An Integrated Approach to Climate Adaptation for CTA Transit Assets Draft Results Karl Peet Chicago Transit Authority Strategic Planning & Policy July 30, 2013
FTA Climate Adaptation Assessment Pilots The Federal Transit Administration (FTA) has provided over $1 million in funding for seven pilots to conduct climate adaptation assessments Sound Transit (Seattle) CTA (Chicago) BART (Oakland) LACMTA (Los Angeles) ICF + SEPTA (Philadelphia) MARTA + Georgia Tech (Atlanta) TTI + Gulf Coast agencies The selected pilots will assess the vulnerability of transit agency assets and services to climate change hazards such as heat waves and flooding
Chicago Climate Adaptation Efforts Chicago Climate Action Plan (CCAP): 2000-2050 Prepare for the human impacts of climate change by supporting people with information and services, such as cooling centers. Prepare infrastructure for climate change by reducing the urban heat island effect, managing flooding from storm events, and strengthening resiliency to extreme weather FIVE STRATEGIES: Energy Efficient Buildings Renewable Energy Sources Improved Transportation Options Reduce Waste and Pollution Adaptation 2015 ACTION AGENDA SUSTAINABLE CHICAGO Sustainable Chicago 2015: 2012-2015
CTA Adaptation Pilot Overview Task I: Survey of System Vulnerabilities Deliverable: Overview of key vulnerabilities through survey of general asset classes using available data (e.g. urban heat islands, energy use, ROW flooding) Task II: Adaptation Project Implementation Strategies Deliverable: In-depth analyses of three specific project areas for applying adaptation principles (e.g. right-of-way flooding, rail buckling, signal failures) Task III: Integration into Standard Business Practices Deliverable: Long-term strategies to integrate adaptation into standard CTA business practices (e.g. asset management; operations/budget impacts)
Task I - Survey of Vulnerabilities: Urban Heat Islands (UHI) (Sample) Rail Branch Name UHI Tier 1 UHI Tier 2 Total Loop Elevated 0% 100% 100% Red Line Dan Ryan 0% 87% 87% Blue Line O'Hare 12% 72% 83% Blue Line Forest Park 5% 71% 75% Pink Line 5% 59% 64% Orange Line 10% 48% 58% Green Line Lake Street 8% 50% 58% Green Line South 0% 36% 36% Red Line North Side 1% 30% 32% Brown Line 0% 27% 27% Purple Line 0% 0% 0% UHI Impacts by CTA Rail Branch Rail Buckling Events Date Daily High Temp(F) Branch Location 4/26/10 61 Blue (FP) Lathrop 7/6/10 91 Yellow Skokie 7/12/10 84 Red (DR) 76th 8/18/10 83 Red (DR) 69th 8/18/10 83 Red (DR) 71st 10/10/10 84 Yellow Hamlin 5/12/11 87 Orange 35th/Archer 6/7/11 96 Blue(FP) Racine 7/21/11 101 Red (DR) Cermak to 35th 7/21/11 101 Red (DR) Cermak UHI Imaging
Task II - Implementation Strategies: Life-Cycle Cost Analysis Life-cycle cost analysis for each of three Task II areas: ROW flooding Rail buckling Signal house failures Sensitivity analyses run on various parameters: Weather event frequency Capital cost estimates Passenger time value DATA FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY
Task II - Implementation Strategies (1): Increased Flooding Issue: Focus on Red and Blue Line subways (high ridership, 24-hour service) A. Flooding into subway portals (i.e. Blue Line Paulina portal) B. Flooding into subway ventilation shafts (three representative locations) Baseline Condition: A. More frequent and severe flooding events (through portals/vents) will cause more frequent service disruptions and equipment failures Build Options: A. Install drainage structures to capture and detain water at subway portals B. Install barrier devices around vent shafts, maintaining circulation/ada requirements
Task II - Implementation Strategies (1): Increased Flooding Significant sensitivity to severe weather event frequency No value of time yields positive NPV at 3x event frequency 2x construction costs yields positive NPV at 3x event frequency PRELIMINARY OUTPUT SUBJECT TO REVISION
Task II - Implementation Strategies (2): Rail Buckling Issue: Focus on curved section of Orange Line track near 35 th /Archer station Track structure is steel running rail supported by wooden crossties 20 years of operation has resulted in regular track modifications Baseline Condition: Increased heat island effect will destabilize the curve, causing more regular slow zones and increasing potential for total service disruption Build Options: 1. Improve existing track structure (e.g. tie spacing, granite ballast, drainage) 2. Replace existing overpass with concrete track bed
Task II - Implementation Strategies (2): Rail Buckling Ballasted track bed shows positive NPV at all event frequencies Direct fixation shows lower benefits due to higher capital costs High costs incurred per weather event justifies capital investment at all event frequencies PRELIMINARY OUTPUT SUBJECT TO REVISION
Interlude
Task II - Implementation Strategies (3): Rail Signal Failures Issue: Signal houses maintained at constant temperatures by A/C units powered through regional (ComEd) electrical grid Current failures caused by limited staffing/deferred maintenance No backup systems in place to counter ComEd grid disruptions Baseline Condition: Projected increase in ambient temperature/uhi impacts will increase A/C units and ComEd failures, and thus slow zones/maintenance costs Build Options: A. Install single backup A/C unit to provide redundancy for primary unit failure B. Install dual A/C units/connect to third rail to provide redundancy for ComEd failure
Task II - Implementation Strategies (3): Rail Signal Failures Lower capital cost justifiable at most event frequencies Higher capital cost justifiable only above 3x event frequencies Full-day slow zone flags investment at all event frequencies PRELIMINARY OUTPUT SUBJECT TO REVISION
Task III Business Practices: Asset Management System Asset vulnerability is a function of exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity; framework can be applied to various asset classes, facilities, locations Climate adaptation parameters to be incorporated with finalization of FTA-funded AMS process for CTA facilities (expected late 2013) DATA ILLUSTRATIVE SUBJECT TO REVISION
Task III Business Practices: Operational/Financial Impacts CTA bus maintenance data (2007-2012) correlated with extreme weather data Operational Impacts HVAC failures significantly correlated with higher temps Average Daily Repairs 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Temperature and HVAC Unit Repairs R² = 0.68 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Temperature (F) Financial Impacts Diesel fuel consumption increases at very low/high temps Project to future periods Consider net impacts Gallons per Vehicle Revenue Hour 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 Temperature and Diesel Consumption R² = 0.1735 0 20 40 60 80 100 Temperature (F)
An Integrated Approach to Climate Adaptation for CTA Transit Assets Draft Results Karl Peet Chicago Transit Authority Strategic Planning & Policy July 30, 2013