David E. Dismukes Center for Energy Studies
GOM Offshore Oil and Gas Economic Overview In 2008, over 420 MMBbls of oil and 2.4 Tcf of natural gas were produced in the Gulf of Mexico OCS. Employs over 200,000 workers in the Gulf Coast region. Over 100,000 workers associated with offshore activities. Contributes almost $100 billion to Gulf Coast states GDP. GOM accounts for 30 percent of total U.S. crude oil production. Deepwater areas produced 76 percent of all GOM crude oil production in 2007. Note: Gulf Coast states include Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi and Alabama Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce; Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy; and Baker Hughes. 2
GOM Offshore Oil and Gas Deepwater Exploration Trends Over the past 20 years, the water depth barrier has moved from 5,300 feet to over 9,500 feet. Source: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, US Department of the Interior. 3
GOM Offshore Oil and Gas Deepwater Statistics and Considerations Over $1.5 billion in surface structure and equipment needed to service deepwater wells. Drilling costs $80 million to $120 million per well. Drilling crews between 200 to 300 for large drilling project. Structures and wells are typically 100 miles to 200 miles from the coast. Water depths between 5,000 feet to 8,500 feet. Drilling depths of 15,000 feet to 28,000 feet (lower tertiary). 4
GOM OCS Deepwater Wells 250 Active deepwater wells are down relative to the earlier part of the decade, but still make considerable contributions to OCS production levels. Number of Wells 200 150 100 > 7,500 ft 5,000-7,499 ft 1,500-4,999 ft 1,000-1,499 ft 50 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, US Department of the Interior. 5
GOM OCS Deepwater Crude Oil Production 600 The significant increase in deepwater crude oil production has been a major new source of domestic crude oil supply. Oil Production (MMBbl) 500 400 300 200 Deepwater Oil Shallow-water Oil 100 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 Source: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, US Department of the Interior. 6
GOM OCS Deepwater Natural Gas Production Deepwater natural gas production has remained relative constant in recent years, despite the overall GOM gas production plummet in 2002. Gas Production (Bcf) 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Deepwater Gas Shallow-water Gas 1,000 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 Source: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, US Department of the Interior. 7
GOM OCS Deepwater Top Producers Source: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, US Department of the Interior. 8
U.S. Offshore Capital Expenditures The federal OCS, and its deepwater regions, account for a large share of the increasing capital investments for major oil companies. $20,000 $100 $90 (million $) $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 Crude Oil Price ($ per barrel) $10 $0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 $0 Exploration Development Production WTI Crude Oil Price Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 9
U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast Deepwater production is forecast to increase by almost 20 percent between 2010 and 2030. Crude Oil Production (MMBbls per day) 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Projection Potential moratorium-created production risk 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Onshore Lower 48 GOM - Deep Water GOM - Shallow Water Offshore Pacific & Atlantic Alaska 10
Active Drilling Rig Trends in Louisiana 160 140 N. Louisiana - Land S. Louisiana - Inland Water S. Louisiana - Land S. Louisiana - Offshore Number of Rigs, S. Louisiana 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Source: Baker Hughes. 11
Gulf of Mexico Offshore Rig Forecast Moratorium Impact 80 Forecasted activity $160 Number of Total Active GOM Drilling Rigs 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Historical Rigs Baseline Forecast Attrition Forecast Price of WTI WTI Futures Apr-20: Accident Moratorium-forecasted reductions in activity $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $- Price of WTI per Barrel Sources: Dept. of Interior, Energy Information Administration, Baker Hughes, CME Group (NYMEX)
Moratorium Impacted Rigs Total pre-spill shallow-water activity currently down by about 31 percent. 70 Apr-20: Accident Other Active - Other Standby Active - Drilling 60 50 40 Lost Activity 30 20 10 0 Note: Active-Other includes Completion; Recomplete; and Workover categories; Standby includes Assigned; Circulate; Under Tow; Waiting on Location; Orders or Weather; Mobilizing, Monitoring and Standby categories. Other includes Plug & Abandon; Run Casing; Rigging Up; Logging; Moving On and Other categories. Source: RigData. 13
Moratorium Impacted Rigs Total pre-spill deepwater activity currently down by about 72 percent. 60 Apr-20: Accident Other Active - Other Standby Active - Drilling 50 40 30 Lost Activity 20 10 0 Note: Active-Other includes Completion; Recomplete; and Workover categories; Standby includes Assigned; Circulate; Under Tow; Waiting on Location; Orders or Weather; Mobilizing, Monitoring and Standby categories. Other includes Plug & Abandon; Run Casing; Rigging Up; Logging; Moving On and Other categories. Source: RigData. 14
Moratorium Impacted Rigs Impacted rigs anticipated to operate in very close proximity to Louisiana ports and support services. 15
Gulf Coast Oil and Gas Employment All Activities 16
Gulf Coast Oil and Gas Employment - Production 17
Gulf Coast Oil and Gas Employment - Drilling 18
Gulf Coast Oil and Gas Employment Support 19
Potential Moratorium Impacts Louisiana Only 20
Potential Moratorium Impacts (Short Run) Potential Parish Level Impacts 21
Long Run Issues Associated with Spill Some longer-run issues for Louisiana and Gulf Cost include: Intermediate-run implications (12-36 months) of current drilling moratoria and the decreased economic activity. The impacts that likely regulatory changes will have on GOM operations and costs that will impact investment profitability. Changes in operator liability requirements and the cost of insurance for GOM operations, particularly for independent operators that have a relatively large (in total) economic presence in Louisiana than the majors. New excise taxes, fees, surcharges, and the elimination of drilling incentives such as the Deepwater Royalty Relief Act and Energy Policy Act of 2005 EPAct deep-gas drilling incentives (shallow water, well depths in excess of 20,000 feet). Impacts on opening the Eastern GOM and elimination of potential economic opportunities for Louisiana service ports (Venice, Fourchon) and LA-based service companies. 22
Questions, Comments, & Discussion dismukes@lsu.edu Center for Energy Studies www.enrg.lsu.edu 23