Driving Change: Reducing Vehicle Miles Traveled in California Louise Bedsworth, Ellen Hanak, Jed Kolko Supported by The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the David A. Coulter Family Foundation
Reducing Driving Is Part of California s Climate Policy AB 32: Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 Reduce economy-wide GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 SB 375 (2008): lower emissions by lowering car use Regional per capita emission targets Coordinated transportation and land use Our study: Is California well-positioned to meet SB 375 goals? 2
Outline Approaches for reducing driving Local programs and perceptions California s experience with transit-oriented development Policy recommendations 3
Three Primary Approaches for Reducing Driving 1. Encourage denser development, closer to transit 2. Invest in transit and other alternatives (walking, biking) 3. Use pricing incentives to raise the cost of driving (e.g. fuel tax, toll lanes, carpool lanes, parking fees) Using these tools, SB375 aims to reduce per capita emissions by about 7% by 2020 about 15% by 2035 4
California Can Meet SB 375 Goals With Integrated Approaches 35 VMT Reduction within 10 years (%) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Land use tools Transit investment Pricing tools Combined strategies Source: Rodier, 2009 5
SB 375 Relies on Regional and Local Coordination Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) the regional transportation agencies must meet new regional targets But cities and counties are key players: Responsible for land use, some transportation, and parking policies How well are they doing? 6
Outline Approaches for reducing driving Local programs and perceptions California s experience with transit-oriented development Policy recommendations 7
Despite Recession, Momentum Continues on Local Climate Action Climate Actions Completed, in Progress, or Planned Share jurisdictions (%) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 55 Emission inventory - operations 70 69 69 42 Emission inventory - community 52 Climate action plan 62 Goals to reduce VMT* 2008 2010 *90% of those with climate actions 8
Many Land Use Tools Are Already in Place 100 Share of jurisdictions (%) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Under consideration In place 10 0 Priority sites for mixed use, HD & infill Reduced parking requirements Other incentives Priority sites for TOD UGB/ greenbelt HD is high density; TOD is transit-oriented development; UGB is urban growth boundary 9
Transit Now a Major Component of Transportation Spending 2009$ 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Transportation spending per capita (2009$) Roads Source: Census of Governments Transit Service has expanded: Bus service widespread Rail transit available in one-quarter of all communities (esp. most populous ones) Major efforts underway to expand biking and walking Widespread local concern over recent transit budget cuts 10
Pricing Tools Effective, But Underutilized State and federal fuel taxes unchanged since early 1990s Coastal regions are expanding high-occupancy toll (HOT) lanes Local governments influence parking Few charge for parking Most require employee parking Public and business opposition is a major concern 11
Local Officials See High Potential in a Variety of Approaches Higher gas price Local bus service Priority sites for mixed-use, HD, infill Express bus Priority sites for TOD Reduced parking reqts Express bus to rail Continuous network of bicycle routes Other land use incentives Pay-as-you drive insurance Higher parking fees Rail (all types) Variable road pricing Carpool lanes Toll lanes Urban growth boundary No potential Low potential Pricing Transit Land use High potential HD is high density; TOD is transit-oriented development 12
Outline Approaches for reducing driving Local programs and perceptions California s experience with transit-oriented development Policy recommendations 13
Spurring Transit Use Is a Major Challenge Commutes on transit in 1990 and 2008 (%) San Francisco Los Angeles San Jose San Diego Sacramento Inland Empire CALIFORNIA 2.4 3.0 0.8 1.9 3.0 3.8 3.4 3.6 5.7 6.6 5.0 5.5 14.3 15.3 1990 2008 0 5 10 15 20 Transit usage up modestly in all metros, but still low (5.5% of all commutes) 75% still drive alone to work VMT per capita rose 3.5% in California, 1990-2008 Up 13.7% nationally 14
Jobs Near Transit Raise Ridership Job density, more than housing density, associated with higher transit ridership Rail ridership drops sharply when jobs beyond ¼ mile from station Easier to park-and-ride from home Job location trends are unfavorable: Housing density is high and increasing Job density is low and falling 15
Transit-Oriented Development Is Major Opportunity for California New and expanding transit systems 200+ new rail stations in 1992-2006 Additional systems and lines planned SB 375 streamlines environmental review for transit priority projects Can integrate parking strategies and walkable design Planners in jurisdictions with rail optimistic about TOD potential 16
Has Job Density Increased Near Transit? Looked at all new transit stations 1992-2006 Measured employment growth: Within ¼ mile of transit station Before and after station opening Fruitvale BART Transit Village 17
No Boost to Job Growth Near Transit New stations are in high density areas BUT no increase in job growth after stations opened, on average Growth increased around some stations, decreased around others Stronger growth near stations: Farther from older transit stations With higher initial density 18
Adding Jobs Near Transit Requires Active Policy False optimism that jobs take care of themselves Existing zoning patterns and fiscal incentives not sufficient Current TOD strategies emphasize housing over jobs SB 375 TOD favors residential over commercial development Case studies show need for active and coordinated planning 19
Outline Approaches for reducing driving Local programs and perceptions California s experience with transit-oriented development Policy recommendations 20
Optimism, with Warnings Planners optimistic Local climate-change activities rising Active promotion of denser land use Value of integrated strategies recognized Perceived potential rises with experience Success means reversing some trends California employment density is low and falling Missed opportunity to boost employment near transit stations 21
What California Should Do Encourage job growth near transit Shift from current tilt toward housing Increase cost of driving and parking Most effective, but unpopular and underutilized Large role for state and feds 22
Driving Change: Reducing Vehicle Miles Traveled in California Louise Bedsworth, Ellen Hanak, Jed Kolko
Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact: Louise Bedsworth: 415-291-4469; bedsworth@ppic.org Ellen Hanak: 415-291-4433; hanak@ppic.org Jed Kolko: 415-291-4483; kolko@ppic.org Thank you for your interest in this work. 24