Renewable Energy: Back to the Future? Daniel M. Kammen Co-Director, Berkeley Institute of the Environment Professor, Energy and Resources Group & Goldman School of Public Policy University of California, Berkeley 25 th Conference of the USAEE/IAEE, 2005, Boulder, CO, September 21, 2005
U. S. Residential Electricity Use (kwh/capita, 1960-2000) Energy Star Home Available savings $, energy, carbon Denmark average
State Renewables Portfolio Standards and Mandates in 17 States + DC NV: 15% by 2013 MN: 10% by 2015 for Xcel + >800 MW RE requirement IA: 105 amw NY in development: ME: 30% by 2000 NY: 25% by 2020 7.5% new by 2013 MA: 4% new by 2009 WI: 2.2% by 2011 RI: 16% by 2019 CT: 10% by 2010 PA: varies by utility NJ: 6.5% by 2008 CA: 20% by 2017 11/2/04 MD: 7.5% by 2019 AZ: 1.1% by 2007 NM: 10% by 2011 HI: 20% by 2020 TX: 2880 MW by 2009 Renewable energy goals established in Illinois and Minnesota RPS being considered in many other states (e.g., VT, WA); potentially revised in others (ME, PA, WI); and national RPS is being discussed (by some)
Generation (GWh) 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 RPS Deployment: By Region Other Geothermal Solar Hydro Landfill Gas Biomass Co-F Biomass Wind 5000 0 VT MA NY DPS NE MN TX AZ PEGCO PPC WA Tellus AZ PIRG CA UCS Northeas Midwest West Source: Cliff Chen, UC Berkeley/LBL
Expansion of Global Solar Industry: 20% Growth Per Year for 10 years Thin film (a-si) > 1100 MW p produced globally in 2004, Ribbon-Si Mono -Si Multi-Si 2000 SB1: Murray Bill/Million Solar Roof Initiative, CA (defeated, 9/2005) Residential Roof Program, Japan 1990 1000 Roofs Program, Germany 1980
Solar Energy for Many Applications Moscone Center: 675,000 W Kammen home: 2400 W Key finding: Investment in solar energy research and deployment pays dividends for many applications and for businesses across scales. Kenyan PV market: Average system: 18W
R&D (billion 2002$s) 120 100 80 60 40 20 Federal R&D Investments, 1955-2004 Defense Space Health Energy General Sci Other Federal under-investment in energy is a tragedy, and an opportunity 0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Margolis & Kammen, Science, 1999
Average citations received per patent 8 6 4 2 Citations Receive "Energy Sector" v Power P All Pate Energy patents: Over 30% less cited than the federal average 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Kammen & Nemet, Issues, 2005
UNIVERSIT Y O F CAL IFORN IA BERK ELE Y REPORT OF THE RENEWAB LE AND APPROPRIATE ENERGY LABORA TO RY Putting Renewa bles to Wo rk: How Many J obs C an the Clean Energy Industry Ge nerate? by Daniel M. Kammen Kama l Kapadia Ma tthias Fripp of the Energy and Resource s Group & the G oldm an School of Pu blic Policy Finding: Investments in energy efficiency and renewables creates 3-5 times more jobs than similar investments in fossil fuel energy systems APRIL 13, 2004 Report available at: http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~rael/papers.html
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QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. A QUICK COMPARISON OF SEVERAL NEW AND EMERGING GREEN VEHICLES AS YOUR PRIMARY, URBAN CAR CONVENTIONAL VEHICLE (CV): Ford Focus HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE (HEV): Toyota Prius QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE (PHEV): Prius Plus PROTOTYPE ALL-ELECTRIC VEHICLE (EV): FUEL-CELL, HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE (FCHEV): Honda FCX gil masters 6-26-05
CARBON EMISSIONS (gco2/mi) QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. CARBON EMISSIONS FOR THE FIVE VEHICLES: 700 600 663 500 400 300 200 100 467 229 Avg Grid 185 NG combined cycle 153 Avg Grid NG combined cycle 175 106 200 NG reformer Electrolysis- Avg grid 402 Electrolysis- NG CC 0 FOCUS PRIUS PRIUS + ALL- TESLA EV HONDA FCX ELECTRIC QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture.
Key Areas for Action Establish a set of energy challenges & prizes Zero energy buildings 200 mpg vehicles Super-efficient appliances, etc. Build on California AB 1493 with aggressive California clean vehicle standards Reflect the value of clean and secure energy in mainstream economic analysis Apply Occam s Razor: implement a carbon tax (er, fee) and an emissions trading system
Renewables: by Source Other Solar 2% Geothermal 17% 6% Hydro 3% Wind 105,021 61% Land-fill gas 2% Biomass Co-fire 4% Biomass (direct) 5% Source: Cliff Chen, UC Berkeley/LBL