Coping with Climate Change Challenges and Potential for Agriculture and Food Security in Arab Countries Arab Climate Resilience Initiative, UNDP Rabat - Morocco, 3-5 November 2010 Mahmoud Solh Director General ICARDA
Outline 1. Climate change and its implication on Agriculture and Food Security in Arab countries; 2. Coping with climate change through Adaptation, Mitigation and Ecosystem Resilience; 3. Achieving Food Security and Coping with Climate Change 4. Conclusion: What can make the difference.
The Changing World
Climate Change and Its Implication on Agriculture and Food Security
What do we mean by Climate Change? Increase in global mean temperature (ºC) due to the emission of Green House Gases (GHG) Temperature rise and associated climate phenomena cause serious impact globally Past Future Short-term: greater climate variability, including extreme events Long-term: shifts in mean climate conditions Source: FAO Policy Learning Programme Module 2: Specific Policy Issues Climate Change Session 2.1 Figure SPM.5
Climate Change Implications Certain areas are projected to become drier and hotter Effects of global warming Crops and livestock will face increased heat stress & extreme conditions Developing countries in the south are likely to be negatively affected 11% decrease in cultivable rainfed land area by 2080 projected in developing countries Severest impacts expected in dry areas particularly in Africa (North & Sub-Saharan Africa) and the Near East Annual Mean Precipitation Change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990 6
Relative change of mean annual precipitation 1980/1999 to 2080/2099 Relative change of mean annual precipitation 1980/1999 to 2080/2099, scenario A1b, average of 21 GCMs (compiled by GIS Unit ICARDA, based on partial maps in Christensen et al., 2007)
Dry Areas: Fragile Eco-systems Physical water scarcity Rapid natural resource degradation and desertification Groundwater depletion Drought Salinity Climate change -10-20 -30-40 -50-60 -70 m Decrease of the Souss aquifer level in Morocco -80 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
Impact of climate change on land suitability and potential production of cereals on rainfed cultivated land Current climate HadCM3 A2 2080s CSIRO A2 2080s Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield mln ha mln tons t/ha % change % change Northern Africa 8 43 5.3-23 -28-6 -11-17 -7 Western Asia 19 93 5.0-5 -7-2 -5-9 -4 Central Asia 11 34 3.1-28 -11 24 38 51 9 Developed 446 2586 5.8 1-1 -1 2 6 4 Developing 559 3529 6.3-6 -5 2-5 -1 4 World 1004 6116 6.1-3 -3 0-2 2 4 Source: Fischer et al., 2008.
Impact of climate change on land suitability and potential production of irrigated cereals on current irrigated land Current climate HadCM3 A2 2080s CSIRO A2 2080s Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield mln ha mln tons t/ha % change % change Northern Africa 6 49 8.4-1 5 7-1 5 6 Western Asia 11 90 8.3 0 4 4 0 5 5 Central Asia 10 87 8.4 0 11 10 0 11 10 Developed 55 434 7.9 1 23 22 1 22 21 Developing 197 1614 8.2-2 5 6-2 6 8 World 252 2048 8.1-1 9 10-1 10 11 Source: Fischer et al., 2008.
Impact of climate change on land suitability and potential production of current grass/scrub/woodland Current climate HadCM3 A2 2080s CSIRO A2 2080s Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield mln ha mln tons DM t/ha % change % change Northern Africa 31 41 1.3-1 -49-49 0-33 -33 Western Asia 46 77 1.7 0-14 -15-1 -15-15 Central Asia 104 127 1.2 0 3 3 0 5 5 Developed 1624 3178 2.0 0 5 5 0 13 13 Developing 2258 7687 3.4 0 1 1 0 2 3 World 3882 10865 2.8 0 2 2 0 5 5 Source: Fischer et al., 2008.
Climate change affects not only food production...... it affects all four dimensions of food security Availability Loss in food production Direct natural resource degradation & More abiotic and biotic Stresses Access Infrastructure damage, asset losses Loss of income and employment opportunities Stability Increased livelihood risks, pressure on food prices Higher dependency on food imports and food aid Increased variability in abiotic and biotic stresses Utilization Human health risks, nutrition Source: FAO Policy Learning Programme Module 2: Specific Policy Issues Climate Change Session 2.1
Coping with Climate Change
Coping with Climate Change - Approaches Approaches to follow: Adaptation Ecosystem Resilience Mitigation Strengthening adaptive capacity of crops and communities; Improve resilience of farming systems; Adaptation & production system resilience to climate change contribute directly to mitigation 14
Adaptation: Helping farmers cope with climate change and improve food security Adaptation to climate change Improved (adapted) crop varieties Integrated pest and disease management Improved water productivity (production per unit water) Diversification and sustainable intensification of productions systems Integrated crop-livestock production systems and rehabilitation of degraded pastures Better management of limited land and water resources
Importance of germplasm conservation: ICARDA Gene Bank Number of Accessions Crop 1977-2009 Barley 24,823 Wheat 33,639 Wild cereals 7,300 Forage legumes 28,330 Food legumes 32,456 Wild food legumes 851 Forage and range 5,666 Total 133,065
ICARDA's holdings Geographic coverage of the conserved plant genetic resources at ICARDA Gene Bank
Crop Crop improvement: released varieties using ICARDA germplasm, 1977 to 2009 Developing Countries 1977-2009 Last 2 years Industrialized Countries All Countries Barley 175 31 6 Durum Wheat 102 14 1 Bread Wheat 224 6 9 Chickpea 108 31 9 Faba Bean 51 6 1 Lentil 96 16 9 Forages 30 2 2 Peas 9 0 0 Sub-Total 761 120 24 Total 881 24 NET ESTIMATED BENEFIT = about US $850 m / year
High yield potential Varieties released Tolerance to abiotic stresses: - Drought - Heat - Cold - Salinity Resistance/tolerance to biotic stresses - Diseases - Insect pests - Parasitic weeds
Wheat area (million ha) Precipitation (mm) /100 Production (million tons) Wheat in Syria: Area Saved and Production 9 8 Area Needed Precipitation Actual Area Linear (Area Trend). Actual Production Linear (Production Trend) 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Wheat area (million ha) Precipitation (mm) /100 Production (million tons) Production (kton/mm) Wheat in Syria: Enhanced Rainfall Productivity 20 18 16 Area Needed Precipitation Actual Area Linear (Area Trend) Production (kton/mm) Linear Production/Precipitation Trend. Actual Production Linear (Production Trend) 20 18 16 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0
Wheat Crossed with Wild Relatives: Synthetic Wheat, tolerance to excessive drought Parent Variety Yield t/ha % recurrent parent Cham 6*2/SW2 1.6 147 Cham 6*2/SW2 1.5 138 Cham-6 1.10 100 Attila-7 1.3 - Yield of synthetic derivatives compared to parents under drought stress. (Tel Hadya 2008 -- 211 mm)
Yield of Synthetic Wheat Varieties derived from wild relatives under moisture extremes Yield (tons/ha) 8 7 Average Maximum 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Low (280mm) Moisture stress High (480mm)
Yields (kg/ha) of promising durum wheat genotypes under rainfed (RF) and supplemental irrigation (SI) 12000 10000 Mean (kg/ha) Max(kg/ha) 11 t/ha 8000 6000 6/t/ha 4000 3.7t/ha 2000 0 RF (321 mm) RF+SI (321+70 mm) RF+SI (524+70 mm) Rf (321 mm) Rf+SI (321+70 mm) Fvrbl+SI (524+70 mm) RF = Rainfed; SI = Supplemental Irrigation
Heat-Tolerant Wheat in Sudan
Barley for excessive drought in Syria Zahra Local Landrace Zahra versus local landrace (139 mm rainfall)
Winter vs. spring chickpea in West Asia & North Africa Mature winter crop Spring sown crop
Drought tolerant chickpea variety survived 2007 drought in Turkey Gokce is used on about 85% of the chickpea production areas (over 550,000 ha). With a yield advantage of 300 kg/ha over other varieties, and world prices over USD 1000/t, this represents an additional USD 165 million for Turkish farmers, in 2007 alone. The Kabuli chickpea, Gokce, developed by Turkish national scientists and ICARDA scientists, has withstood severe drought in Turkey and produced when most other crops failed in 2007.
Adaptation through Sustainable Water Management
Benchmark sites for integrated water and land management
Implementation in three agro-ecologies Rainfed Areas Irrigated Areas Marginal Lands
Rainfed Agro-Ecosystems Supplemental Irrigation Early sowing Deficit irrigation Optimization of supplemental irrigation 8 6 4 2 Grain yield (t/ha) 5.31 3.46 3.7 0.96 Water productivity (Kg/m3) 5.91 6.21 2.39 1.27 0 rainfed Sowing SI Deficit SI Full SI
Irrigated Agro-Ecosystem Increasing water productivity/income Management of saline water and soils Policies and institutions Modifying cropping patterns
% of rainfall Marginal Land Agro-Ecosystem Water harvesting technologies Micro-catchments & mechanized contour laser planting 120 100 Transpiration Evaporation Effective water harvesting Grazing management 80 60 40 20 40-50% increase in rainwater productivity 0 No intervention Micro WH Macro WH
Water productivty (kg/m3 x10) Tradeoffs between water and land productivity: Deficit Irrigation 20 Water productivity can be increased substantially Water, not land, is the limiting resource 15 10 5 0 y = -0.4278x 2 + 4.7328x - 0.543 R 2 = 0.7611 0 2 4 6 8 10 Land productivtiy (t/ha)
Potential of WUE: Supplemental Irrigation (SI), Rainfed and Fully Irrigated (FI) Areas WUE: Water Use Efficiency
Nutritional Economic WP Calories/m3 WP $/m3 Systemwide Initiative: Potential water productivity improvement Poor management Improved management 8000 3.5 7000 3 6000 2.5 5000 2 4000 1.5 3000 1 2000 1000 0.5 80 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1000 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 60 210 0.1 0.1 Beef Lentil Wheat Potato Olive Dates Beef Lentil Wheat Potato 7 Olive Dates 10 30 0.03 0.1 7000 4000 3500 3000 660 Biological WP 0.3 kg/m3 150 150 90 50 50 1 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.7 Nutritional WP Protein gr/m3 3 3 Beef Lentil Wheat Potato Potato Olive Olive Dates Dates 120 3450 1 1 30 3 1150 1120 10 8 2240 0.8 16 0.4 1.6 0.8
Enhancing Resilience of Production Systems to Climate Change
Integration of crop, rangeland and livestock production systems Successful Technologies On-farm feed production By-products - feed blocks Flock management Barley production Cactus & fodder shrubs Natural pastures & rangeland management
Indigenous breeds of small ruminants are highly adaptable to changes in the environment
Small Ruminant Breed Characterization The focus of the books Production systems Characteristics 48 breeds Threats to animal diversity Completes CWANA series West Asia & North Africa and Central Asia & Caucasus
Successful Technologies in Farmers Fields Feed blocks using crop residues and agroindustrial by-products Improved rams Early weaning Improved barley cultivars Rotations of barley with forage legumes
Technology for improved feeding: Strategic feeding of low cost balanced diets Problems: High costs of supplements in dry years Cereals used as feeds Solutions: By-products of crops and agroindustries: Low cost balanced diets for intensive and semi-intensive systems using available byproducts and crop residues Feed blocks can be used to mitigate the effects of drought
Adaptation to climate change contributes to mitigation of climate change Mitigation potential from agricultural lands Estimates of mitigation potential from carbon sequestration have focused on the carbon uptake from afforestation and reforestation The capacity of grasslands to mitigate GHG emissions is often a neglected aspect of agriculture. The soil C levels in managed pastures and other grazing lands increases with improved management (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WG3) The dry areas encompass vast areas of natural pastures, often degraded, and with rehabilitation would contribute to improved livelihoods, food security and C sequestration
Rangeland rehabilitation enhances Carbon Sequestration & Mitigation of Climate Change Rangelands occupy 256 m ha of rangeland in Central Asia Caucasus (88% of the land area)
Ultimate Goal: Achieving Food Security and Coping with Climate Change Implications
Projected Sources of Agricultural Growth 80% 20% Agriculture intensification Others Source: FAO, 2002 World agriculture: towards 2015/30, http://www.fao.org/es/esd/gstudies.htm
Agricultural Intensification is a serious threat to the Environment and Natural Resources (Water, Biodiversity, and Land/Soil ) if not practiced in a Sustainable Manner particularly in Dry Areas. Therefore, we should aim at sustainable agricultural development that will not deplete natural resources namely Water, Biodiversity and Soil/Land Productivity.
The Trend Should be Towards Sustainable Agriculture Intensification More Expansion of Conservation Agriculture and Conservation Technologies Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) Sustainable Water Use and Management Zero/minimum Tillage Integrated Production Systems Diversification of Agriculture Production Integrated Plant Nutrient System (IPNS) Organic Fertilization and Organic Agriculture Integrated Pest Management (IPM) Protected Agriculture / Hydroponics
Achieving Food Security & Coping with Climate Change Implications Further Investment in: Expansion of Conservation Technologies & Conservation Agriculture for Sustainable Agricultural Development
In Conclusion Although Agriculture (including Forestry and Fisheries) contributes around 33 % of Greenhouse Gas emissions that causes Climate Change; Investment in Agriculture research and development is a major part of the solution to cope with climate change and its implications on Food Security; To achieve food security in a changing climate, we should help farmers to cope with climate change through adaptation and enhancing the resilience of farming system which will directly mitigate Climate Change.
In Conclusion: What Can Make the Difference? Enabling policy and political will; Investment in agricultural development Advances in Science & Technologies Adaptation and mitigation to Climate Change Sustainable intensification of production systems Integrated approaches and better NRM for economic growth Public awareness of the long term benefits of conservation technologies Capacity development & institutional support Partnerships
Today we all have the responsibility to work together promote conservation technologies to achieve food security and adapt and mitigate Climate Change
THANK YOU 54