Model Characteristics

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General Model Design Highway Network/Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) Development of Synthetic Trip Tables Validation Procedures & Results Model Application (2003 & 2030) Review 2

Model Characteristics Address Major Corridor Movements Relatively Easy to Maintain and Update Uses Existing Data Resources Uses Existing Software for Application Links to Existing GIS Databases/Software Sensitive to Shifts in Socioeconomic/Land Use Patterns Assess Impacts of Shifts in Travel Modes Assess Freight Movements 3

Potential Methodologies Traditional Four Step TDM Procedures Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Traffic Assignment Trip Table Expansion (FRATAR) Preparation of Base Trip Table(s) Development of Expansion Factors 4

Steps In Model Development Development of Highway Network & TAZs Selection of Detail for Highway Network Definition of TAZs TAZ/Network Compatibility Synthetic Matrix Estimation (SME) Development of Seed Matrices Matrix Estimation Traffic Assignment 5

Network/TAZ Definition Incorporate All Roadways in TRIMS 1,283 Miles of Interstate/Freeways 4,300 Miles of Principal Arterials 8,271 Miles of Other Subset of TRIMS Interstate and Freeways Principal Arterials 6

TRIMS/Model Comparison ROUTE MILES DVMT NATIONAL FUNCTIONAL NFC Travel Model/TRIMS Travel Model/TRIMS CLASSIFICATION CODE Model TRIMS Ratio Model TRIMS Ratio RURAL INTERSTATE 01 368.46 368.46 1.00 12,901,049 12,901,049 1.00 RURAL OTHER PRINCIPAL ARTERIAL 02 1581.97 1581.97 1.00 13,693,621 13,693,621 1.00 RURAL MINOR ARTERIAL 06 2595.38 2595.38 1.00 12,973,803 12,973,803 1.00 RURAL MAJOR COLLECTOR 07 299.58 3625.57 0.08 640,940 7,756,768 0.08 RURAL MINOR COLLECTOR 08 0 8.03 0.00 0 19,522 0.00 RURAL LOCAL 09 0 0 -NA- 0 0 -NA- URBAN INTERSTATE 11 613.27 613.27 1.00 44,535,171 44,535,171 1.00 URBAN FREEWAY OR EXPRESSWAY 12 300.84 300.84 1.00 10,834,901 10,834,901 1.00 URBAN OTHER PRINCIPAL ARTERIAL 14 2717.87 2717.87 1.00 51,938,821 51,938,821 1.00 URBAN MINOR ARTERIAL 16 525.39 1803.42 0.29 5,744,441 19,718,001 0.29 URBAN COLLECTOR 17 0 238.57 0.00 0 1,203,949 0.00 URBAN LOCAL 19 0.00 0.00 -NA- 0 0 -NA- TOTAL 9,002.76 13,853.38 0.65 153,262,747 175,575,606 0.87 7

REGION 1 Network/TAZs LEGEND: Rural Interstate Rural Principal Arterial Rural Minor Arterial Rural Local Urban Interstate Urban Freeway/Expressway Urban Principal Arterial Urban Minor Arterial TAZ Boundary 8

REGION 2 Network/TAZs LEGEND: Rural Interstate Rural Principal Arterial Rural Minor Arterial Rural Local Urban Interstate Urban Freeway/Expressway Urban Principal Arterial Urban Minor Arterial TAZ Boundary 9

REGION 3 Network/TAZs LEGEND: Rural Interstate Rural Principal Arterial Rural Minor Arterial Rural Local Urban Interstate Urban Freeway/Expressway Urban Principal Arterial Urban Minor Arterial TAZ Boundary 10

LEGEND: REGION 4 Network/TAZs Rural Interstate Rural Principal Arterial Rural Minor Arterial Rural Local Urban Interstate Urban Freeway/Expressway Urban Principal Arterial Urban Minor Arterial TAZ Boundary 11

National Network LEGEND: Rural Interstate Rural Principal Arterial Rural Minor Arterial Rural Local Urban Interstate Urban Freeway/Expressway Urban Principal Arterial Urban Minor Arterial 12

Background Trip Tables Are One of the Basic Elements of Travel Demand Models Origin-Destination (O-D) Surveys Traditional Method for Trip Table Development Developing Trip Tables Using Traffic Counts has been Source of Research for Past 30 Years 13

Required Inputs Traffic Counts Traffic Assignment Network Seed Trip Table 14

Required Inputs Traffic Counts Sample should come from widely dispersed parts of the network Counts on Selected Links and on Screenlines/Cutlines Counts Need to be Directional 15

Required Inputs Traffic Assignment Network Traffic Assignment Network MUST Produce Realistic Results Equilibrium Assignment Process 16

Required Inputs Seed Matrix Potential Sources of Seed Matrix Default matrix Prior estimate based on survey measurements Synthetically generated (e.g., from a doubly-constrained trip distribution model) 17

Seed Matrix Serves Two Purposes Set the dimensions for the output matrix Provide initial values for the estimated trip table O-D Matrix Estimation only accounts for trips between zones (diagonal cells will be ignored trips within a zone) Every cell that is expected to have a positive flow must have a positive number in the base matrix 18

Seed Matrix Three Trip Purposes Used Work Other Non-Home Based Used Trip Rates and Lengths From National Household Survey Urban Rural 19

Seed Matrix Trip Generation 2001 NHTS Database Purpose Percent HBO 4,341 42% HBW 2,296 22% NHB 3,588 36% Grand 10,225 100% HBW 1.70 trips/household HBO 3.20 trips/household NHB 2.65 trips/household 7.55 trips/household 20

Seed Matrix Trip Distribution 2001 NHTS Trip Length Distribution - HBW 20% 18% 16% NHTS Average Trip Length = 23.96 Min. GM Average Trip Length = 23.92 Min. 14% Percent of Trips 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 Travel Time (in minutes) 21

Seed Matrix Trip Distribution 2001 NHTS Trip Length Distribution - HBO 30.0% 25.0% NHTS Average Trip Length = 17.62 Min. GM Average Trip Length = 17.61 Min. 20.0% Percent of Trips 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 Travel Time (in minutes) 22

Seed Matrix Trip Distribution 2001 NHTS Trip Length Distribution - NHB 30% 25% NHTS Average Trip Length = 16.56 Min. GM Average Trip Length = 16.52 Min. 20% Percent of Trips 15% 10% 5% 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 Travel Time (in minutes) 23

Seed Matrix Initial Matrix Not Person Trips; Merging of HBW, HBO, NHB, Internal-External and External-External Trip Tables; Seed Matrix represents Passenger Cars and Light Commercial Vehicle Trips Only; and, Additional Intercity (MPO to MPO) vehicle trips were added in relation to 2000 CTPP Place of Residence and Place of Work Information. 24

Traffic Counts Traffic Assignment Network Seed Trip Table Application of TransCAD Matrix Estimation Program 25

Application Application of of TransCAD TransCAD Matrix Matrix Estimation Estimation Program Program Trip Trip Table Table Evaluation Evaluation Good?? NO Input Input Adjustments: Adjustments: Network Network Seed Seed Table Table Counts Counts YES Base Base Year Year (2003) (2003) Trip Trip Table Table 26

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Matrix Evaluation Parameters Trip Length Goodness of Fit Screenlines 30

VMT Area National TDOT Synthetic Relative FHWA Type Functional Class TRIMS db (1) Model (1) Difference 2001 (2) Rural Interstate 17.822 17.513-0.02 26.071 Principal Arterial 13.795 14.490 0.05 15.775 Minor Arterial 14.646 19.917 0.36 16.655 Major Collector 9.374 0.000 -NA- 10.285 Minor Collector 0.011 0.000 -NA- 9.074 Local 0.000 0.000 -NA- 9.074 55.648 51.920-0.07 86.934 Urban Interstate 24.305 24.667 0.01 25.011 Freeways/Expressways 4.200 4.171-0.01 4.416 Principal Arterial 26.718 29.643 0.11 28.260 Minor Arterial 8.928 7.839-0.12 21.005 Collector 0.396 0.000-1.00 6.586 Local 0.000 0.000 -NA- 13.079 64.547 66.320 0.03 98.359 TOTAL VMT 120.196 118.239-0.02 185.293 Notes: -NA- denotes that calculation is not applicable for that cell. VMT in millions miles of travel. (1) Includes passenger cars and single unit trucks. (2) Includes all vehicles including multi-unit trucks. 31

Screenline Region 1 18 12 94 8 70 82 88 64 32

Screenline Results Region 1 Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. Orientation Number Volume Volume Difference Allowable EW 8 92,568 95,822 3.5% 24.7% EW 12 314,484 321,574 2.3% 18.3% EW 18 182,166 195,102 7.1% 20.2% NS 64 87,594 90,493 3.3% 24.7% NS 70 308,700 300,926-2.5% 18.3% NS 82 39,678 44,904 13.2% 33.3% NS 88 160,318 164,234 2.4% 20.2% NS 94 6,020 6,586 9.4% 44.9% 1,191,528 1,219,641 2.4% 18.3% 33

Screenline Results Region 1 Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. Number Route Volume Volume Difference Allowable U27 4,916 4,979 1.3% 47.1% S58 1,378 1,407 2.1% 76.1% I75 32,680 31,785-2.7% 23.0% U11 3,572 3,419-4.3% 53.1% 8 S72 4,726 5,699 20.6% 47.8% U411 15,588 18,269 17.2% 30.4% U129 3,932 3,929-0.1% 51.2% FOOTHI 3,168 2,988-5.7% 55.6% U441 5,488 6,006 9.4% 45.1% I40 17,120 17,341 1.3% 29.4% 92,568 95,822 3.5% 24.7% U27 3,792 4,892 29.0% 51.9% S61 7,030 7,352 4.6% 41.1% S62 22,870 17,802-22.2% 26.3% S95 22,722 22,632-0.4% 26.4% U25W 16,898 24,239 43.4% 29.5% S131 13,990 13,323-4.8% 31.7% I75 49,314 47,359-4.0% 19.7% S33 41,650 45,412 9.0% 21.0% I640 47,520 43,907-7.6% 20.0% 12 U11W 13,688 15,819 15.6% 32.0% U11E 18,664 19,958 6.9% 28.4% S92 9,274 6,805-26.6% 37.0% U70 6,074 8,898 46.5% 43.4% U70 3,724 4,221 13.3% 52.3% I40 19,488 20,006 2.7% 28.0% U25E 7,072 7,111 0.6% 41.0% U321 2,010 2,966 47.6% 66.0% S70 2,214 2,256 1.9% 63.6% I26 6,490 6,616 1.9% 42.4% 314,484 321,574 2.3% 9.4% 34

Screenline Results Region 1 Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. Number Route Volume Volume Difference Allowable U27 6,740 9,266 37.5% 41.8% U25W 8,268 8,165-1.2% 38.7% I75 25,044 25,459 1.7% 25.5% U25W 1,294 2,176 68.2% 77.9% U25E 19,484 22,946 17.8% 28.0% S70 238 443 86.1% 147.6% 18 I-181 24,960 24,890-0.3% 25.5% 11,760 11,631-1.1% 33.9% I81 20,614 25,472 23.6% 27.4% U11W 22,988 22,851-0.6% 26.3% U19 18,692 17,437-6.7% 28.4% S34 9,232 12,695 37.5% 37.1% U421 6,342 5,202-18.0% 42.7% U421 6,510 6,469-0.6% 42.3% 182,166 195,102 7.1% 20.2% S52 1,268 1,494 17.9% 78.5% S62 1,146 1,151 0.5% 81.5% I40 24,428 24,321-0.4% 25.7% U27 13,456 13,259-1.5% 32.2% 64 U70 4,150 3,916-5.6% 50.2% S58 1,378 1,306-5.3% 76.1% I75 29,668 29,113-1.9% 23.9% U11 5,054 5,627 11.3% 46.6% U411 5,748 8,955 55.8% 44.4% S39 1,298 1,351 4.1% 77.8% 87,594 90,493 3.3% 13.9% 35

Screenline Results Region 1 Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. Number Route Volume Volume Difference Allowable U25W 2,376 2,176-8.4% 61.9% S63 19,796 26,278 32.7% 27.8% U441 1,100 1,206 9.7% 82.8% I75 35,166 32,197-8.4% 22.4% S61 25,676 20,207-21.3% 25.2% U25W 17,344 17,910 3.3% 29.2% S62 10,812 13,055 20.7% 34.9% 70 S131 8,694 6,435-26.0% 37.9% 11,496 16,013 39.3% 34.1% I75 114,088 108,450-4.9% 13.4% U70 27,792 24,986-10.1% 24.5% S332 8,950 8,069-9.8% 37.5% U321 13,222 12,007-9.2% 32.4% U411 11,850 11,739-0.9% 33.8% S72 338 198-41.4% 129.3% 308,700 300,926-2.5% 18.3% S33 644 1,575 144.6% 101.4% U11W 8,180 8,348 2.1% 38.8% 82 U11E 5,568 6,490 16.6% 44.9% I81 22,150 22,429 1.3% 26.7% U321 3,136 6,062 93.3% 55.8% U25 4,980 4,930-1.0% 46.8% 44,658 49,834 11.6% 20.5% 36

Screenline Results Region 1 Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. Number Route Volume Volume Difference Allowable U11W 17,820 18,404 3.3% 28.9% S126 8,360 8,278-1.0% 38.5% I81 24,040 25,165 4.7% 25.8% 5,940 8,982 51.2% 43.8% 88 S75 11,268 17,056 51.4% 34.4% S36 12,732 9,160-28.1% 32.9% I181 31,680 30,622-3.3% 23.3% S354 14,158 12,513-11.6% 31.6% U321 26,156 25,071-4.1% 25.0% I26 8,164 8,985 10.1% 38.9% 160,318 164,234 2.4% 20.2% U421 920 1,393 51.4% 88.6% 94 S67 3,620 3,392-6.3% 52.8% U321 1,480 1,801 21.7% 74.0% 6,020 6,586 9.4% 43.6% 37

Screenline Region 2 18 54 62 12 46 4 0 38

Screenline Results Region 2 Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. Orientation Number Volume Volume Difference Allowable EW 0 224,862 237,999 5.8% 18.3% EW 4 139,294 140,989 1.2% 20.2% EW 12 80,352 84,951 5.7% 24.7% EW 18 14,010 12,938-7.6% 44.9% NS 46 93,110 92,471-0.7% 24.7% NS 54 98,498 92,582-6.0% 24.7% NS 62 99,580 100,712 1.1% 24.7% 749,706 762,643 1.7% 18.3% 39

Screenline Results Region 2 Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. Number Route Volume Volume Difference Allowable S16 496 814 64.0% 111.9% S56 396 397 0.2% 121.8% U72 12,882 12,894 0.1% 32.7% I24 32,026 32,112 0.3% 23.2% I24 44,956 44,959 0.0% 20.4% U11 5,318 5,424 2.0% 45.7% 0 S148 1,614 1,614 0.0% 71.7% S17 11,762 11,805 0.4% 33.9% U27 24,250 23,111-4.7% 25.8% I75 74,568 85,884 15.2% 15.5% S60 5,162 7,143 38.4% 46.2% U411 4,442 4,344-2.2% 48.9% S68 6,990 7,498 7.3% 41.2% 224,862 237,999 5.8% 18.3% U41 A 10,642 10,891 2.3% 35.2% I24 23,962 23,765-0.8% 25.9% U41 2,704 2,478-8.4% 59.0% S56 3,636 3,828 5.3% 52.7% S108 1,246 2,526 102.7% 79.0% S28 6,092 7,921 30.0% 43.4% U127 1,962 3,540 80.4% 66.6% 4 S111 6,444 5,719-11.2% 42.5% U27 18,304 18,009-1.6% 28.7% S60 4,926 4,386-11.0% 47.0% I75 28,080 28,103 0.1% 24.4% U11 5,234 5,108-2.4% 46.0% S30 10,024 10,858 8.3% 36.0% U411 11,146 8,953-19.7% 34.6% S310 4,892 4,903 0.2% 47.1% 139,294 140,989 1.2% 20.2% 40

Screenline Results Region 2 Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. Number Route Volume Volume Difference Allowable U70 4,666 4,956 6.2% 48.0% S56 3,842 3,811-0.8% 51.7% S111 12,872 12,986 0.9% 32.7% U70N 3,416 2,425-29.0% 54.0% 12 I40 23,690 27,105 14.4% 26.0% U127 10,370 11,665 12.5% 35.5% S298 2,416 2,489 3.0% 61.5% S101 14,482 14,525 0.3% 31.3% 2,772 3,256 17.5% 58.4% 1,826 1,733-5.1% 68.4% 80,352 84,951 5.7% 24.7% S151 754 642-14.8% 95.5% S53 2,784 2,155-22.6% 58.3% 18 S52 2,988 3,337 11.7% 56.8% S42 4,042 4,673 15.6% 50.7% U127 3,442 2,131-38.1% 53.8% 14,010 12,938-7.6% 44.9% S96 3,412 4,109 20.4% 54.0% U70S 11,702 10,461-10.6% 33.9% I24 28,666 27,906-2.7% 24.2% U41 7,902 6,941-12.2% 39.3% 46 S55 14,764 14,975 1.4% 31.1% U41 A 13,978 14,016 0.3% 31.7% U41 A 7,596 10,378 36.6% 39.9% U64 3,298 2,872-12.9% 54.7% S16 1,792 814-54.6% 68.9% 93,110 92,471-0.7% 24.7% 41

Screenline Results Region 2 Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. Number Route Volume Volume Difference Allowable S53 4,750 4,669-1.7% 47.7% S52 2,988 3,997 33.8% 56.8% S136 456 346-24.2% 115.5% S85 1,216 1,057-13.0% 79.7% S111 15,210 12,137-20.2% 30.7% 0 7,760 7,658-1.3% 39.6% 54 U70N 8,386 8,245-1.7% 38.5% I40 27,194 25,744-5.3% 24.7% U70 11,760 11,127-5.4% 33.9% S30 1,386 976-29.6% 75.9% S111 4,946 4,833-2.3% 47.0% S28 4,948 4,812-2.8% 46.9% S283 3,656 3,415-6.6% 52.6% U41 3,842 3,566-7.2% 51.7% 98,498 92,582-6.0% 24.7% S52 1,322 1,263-4.4% 77.3% S62 632 688 8.9% 102.1% I40 20,866 22,561 8.1% 27.3% U70 1,822 1,878 3.1% 68.5% U27 4,916 4,979 1.3% 47.1% S68 5,218 5,483 5.1% 46.0% 62 S58 1,840 1,584-13.9% 68.2% S30 5,636 4,707-16.5% 44.7% 0 1,826 2,369 29.7% 68.4% I75 30,040 29,252-2.6% 23.8% 0 4,950 4,188-15.4% 46.9% U11 9,526 9,391-1.4% 36.7% U64 9,304 10,763 15.7% 37.0% S313 1,682 1,605-4.6% 70.6% 99,580 100,712 1.1% 24.7% 42

Screenline Region 3 18 48 12 24 6 0 36 40 43

Screenline Results Region 3 Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. Orientation Number Volume Volume Difference Allowable EW 0 45,998 47,721 3.7% 33.3% EW 6 73,952 67,837-8.3% 33.3% EW 12 344,268 343,745-0.2% 18.3% EW 18 175,380 178,665 1.9% 20.2% NS 24 34,816 38,507 10.6% 33.3% NS 36 241,488 251,439 4.1% 18.3% NS 40 455,378 464,695 2.0% 18.3% NS 48 121,980 121,155-0.7% 24.7% 1,493,260 1,513,765 1.4% 18.3% 44

Screenline Results Region 3 Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. Number Route Volume Volume Difference Allowable S69 2,050 1,876-8.5% 65.5% PNA D 2,232 2,232 0.0% 63.4% S13 2,502 2,509 0.3% 60.7% U43 8,142 8,158 0.2% 38.9% 0 S11 2,382 2,374-0.3% 61.9% I65 10,028 10,278 2.5% 36.0% U31 6,106 7,118 16.6% 43.4% U231 10,184 10,952 7.5% 35.7% S97 2,372 2,224-6.2% 62.0% 45,998 47,721 3.7% 33.3% S13 590 721 22.2% 104.8% S48 1,062 1,358 27.8% 83.9% S20 2,940 2,292-22.1% 57.1% U43 11,880 11,081-6.7% 33.7% U31 2,922 4,125 41.2% 57.3% 6 I65 13,002 13,038 0.3% 32.6% U431 1,746 2,042 17.0% 69.6% U31 A 4,648 4,573-1.6% 48.1% U41 A 9,800 7,738-21.0% 36.3% U231 21,782 16,312-25.1% 26.8% S64 3,580 4,558 27.3% 53.0% 73,952 67,837-8.3% 33.3% 45

Screenline Results Region 3 Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. Number Route Volume Volume Difference Allowable S69 2,050 1,876-8.5% 65.5% PNA D 2,232 2,232 0.0% 63.4% S13 2,502 2,509 0.3% 60.7% U43 8,142 8,158 0.2% 38.9% 0 S11 2,382 2,374-0.3% 61.9% I65 10,028 10,278 2.5% 36.0% U31 6,106 7,118 16.6% 43.4% U231 10,184 10,952 7.5% 35.7% S97 2,372 2,224-6.2% 62.0% 45,998 47,721 3.7% 33.3% S13 590 721 22.2% 104.8% S48 1,062 1,358 27.8% 83.9% S20 2,940 2,292-22.1% 57.1% U43 11,880 11,081-6.7% 33.7% U31 2,922 4,125 41.2% 57.3% 6 I65 13,002 13,038 0.3% 32.6% U431 1,746 2,042 17.0% 69.6% U31 A 4,648 4,573-1.6% 48.1% U41 A 9,800 7,738-21.0% 36.3% U231 21,782 16,312-25.1% 26.8% S64 3,580 4,558 27.3% 53.0% 73,952 67,837-8.3% 33.3% 46

Screenline Results Region 3 Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. Number Route Volume Volume Difference Allowable S13 2,874 2,940 2.3% 57.6% S48 1,674 1,608-3.9% 70.7% I40 19,188 19,646 2.4% 28.1% S46 11,650 12,207 4.8% 34.0% 0 2,940 2,804-4.6% 57.1% S96 6,626 7,058 6.5% 42.0% S96 13,188 15,515 17.6% 32.4% 12 S96 7,546 11,321 50.0% 40.0% U431 14,804 15,281 3.2% 31.0% U31 24,028 21,643-9.9% 25.9% I65 97,530 98,541 1.0% 13.7% I24 91,962 91,456-0.5% 13.9% U41 24,454 16,554-32.3% 25.7% I840 F 15,404 16,441 6.7% 30.6% U231 7,566 7,284-3.7% 40.0% S96 2,834 3,445 21.6% 57.9% 344,268 343,745-0.2% 18.3% U79 8,826 7,940-10.0% 37.7% S13 21,160 25,596 21.0% 27.1% U41 A 16,276 18,159 11.6% 29.9% I24 31,500 33,338 5.8% 23.3% U41 14,896 11,482-22.9% 31.0% S49 5,430 5,519 1.6% 45.3% 18 I65 41,380 41,034-0.8% 21.1% U31W 7,694 7,390-4.0% 39.7% S25 2,188 2,542 16.2% 63.9% S109 8,418 9,260 10.0% 38.4% U31E 9,944 10,079 1.4% 36.1% S10 5,520 4,213-23.7% 45.0% S56 2,148 2,113-1.6% 64.3% 175,380 178,665 1.9% 20.2% 47

Screenline Results Region 3 Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. Number Route Volume Volume Difference Allowable U79 3,696 5,239 41.7% 52.4% U70 7,084 6,866-3.1% 41.0% 24 I40 19,564 20,071 2.6% 27.9% U412 2,246 3,223 43.5% 63.3% U64 2,226 3,109 39.7% 63.5% 34,816 38,507 10.6% 33.3% U41 4,638 4,645 0.2% 48.1% S49 6,850 6,711-2.0% 41.5% I24 38,156 37,914-0.6% 21.7% U41 A 6,584 6,469-1.7% 42.1% S12 10,780 10,467-2.9% 35.0% U70 3,900 12,594 222.9% 51.4% I40 49,216 46,646-5.2% 19.7% 36 U70S 23,860 24,260 1.7% 25.9% S100 21,464 21,361-0.5% 27.0% S96 10,556 10,531-0.2% 35.3% U31 11,888 17,614 48.2% 33.7% 23,732 18,967-20.1% 26.0% U412 13,116 16,526 26.0% 32.5% S50 8,816 8,531-3.2% 37.7% U31 A 4,512 4,658 3.2% 48.6% U31 3,420 3,546 3.7% 54.0% 241,488 251,439 4.1% 18.3% 48

Screenline Results Region 3 Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. Number Route Volume Volume Difference Allowable I65 37,860 37,604-0.7% 21.8% U31W 2,756 3,088 12.0% 58.6% S25 2,376 2,930 23.3% 61.9% S386 39,542 38,195-3.4% 21.4% U31E 35,196 45,689 29.8% 22.4% S45 31,126 31,360 0.8% 23.4% U70N 29,058 29,470 1.4% 24.1% I40 91,280 89,725-1.7% 13.9% 0 5,880 9,698 64.9% 44.0% 40 U70S 21,384 26,074 21.9% 27.0% S254 31,108 25,148-19.2% 23.5% 0 13,258 12,849-3.1% 32.4% I24 83,660 82,270-1.7% 14.3% S96 4,342 4,169-4.0% 49.3% U41 A 3,066 3,085 0.6% 56.2% S64 2,990 3,222 7.8% 56.8% U431 3,478 4,632 33.2% 53.6% U64 4,834 4,855 0.4% 47.4% U231 12,184 10,633-12.7% 33.4% 455,378 464,695 2.0% 18.3% S52 2,736 2,184-20.2% 58.7% S151 892 642-28.0% 89.6% S56 476 479 0.7% 113.6% S262 2,308 2,404 4.1% 62.6% S25 8,556 7,611-11.0% 38.2% U70N 3,584 3,666 2.3% 53.0% I40 27,004 26,413-2.2% 24.7% S53 1,854 1,880 1.4% 68.0% 48 U70 5,126 4,587-10.5% 46.3% S96 3,872 3,542-8.5% 51.5% U70S 11,878 12,042 1.4% 33.7% U41 1,604 1,644 2.5% 71.8% I24 30,600 30,513-0.3% 23.6% S64 2,464 2,164-12.2% 61.1% U41 A 7,962 9,866 23.9% 39.2% S55 5,482 5,733 4.6% 45.2% U64 3,662 3,772 3.0% 52.6% S97 1,920 2,013 4.9% 67.1% 121,980 121,155-0.7% 24.7% 49

Screenline Region 4 18 18 22 12 4 0 0 50

Screenline Results Region 4 Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. Orientation Number Volume Volume Difference Allowable EW 0 178,660 197,000 10.3% 20.2% EW 10 58,420 69,371 18.7% 33.3% EW 18 24,914 29,303 17.6% 44.9% NS 0 116,718 127,834 9.5% 24.7% NS 4 304,416 264,314-13.2% 18.3% NS 8 90,818 98,006 7.9% 24.7% NS 18 64,464 63,735-1.1% 33.3% NS 22 52,054 47,788-8.2% 33.3% 890,464 897,351 0.8% 18.3% 51

Screenline Results Region 4 Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. Number Route Volume Volume Difference Allowable U61 21,418 24,185 12.9% 27.0% 0 3,412 3,199-6.3% 54.0% U51 12,782 12,782 0.0% 32.8% I55 54,362 56,206 3.4% 19.4% 0 13,950 20,254 45.2% 31.7% U78 32,692 34,369 5.1% 23.0% 0 0 7,440 8,458 13.7% 40.2% U72 13,348 15,716 17.7% 32.3% S18 1,738 1,757 1.1% 69.7% S125 3,620 3,748 3.5% 52.8% U45 7,588 10,016 32.0% 39.9% S22 2,610 2,603-0.3% 59.8% S57 3,700 3,708 0.2% 52.4% 178,660 197,000 10.3% 20.2% U51 10,256 10,632 3.7% 35.7% U45W 9,618 10,053 4.5% 36.5% U79 10,322 19,979 93.6% 35.6% U45E 14,458 14,439-0.1% 31.3% 10 U70 3,840 3,451-10.1% 51.7% S22 4,708 5,381 14.3% 47.8% 0 496 599 20.8% 111.9% U641 4,326 4,461 3.1% 49.4% 0 396 376-5.1% 121.8% 58,420 69,371 18.7% 33.3% 52

Screenline Results Region 4 Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. Number Route Volume Volume Difference Allowable S78 510 502-1.5% 110.7% U51 5,404 7,624 41.1% 45.4% 18 U51 8,436 10,929 29.6% 38.4% U45E 5,080 4,754-6.4% 46.5% U641 5,484 5,493 0.2% 45.2% 24,914 29,303 17.6% 44.9% I40 42,008 44,862 6.8% 20.9% 0 I55 38,330 46,773 22.0% 21.7% 9,500 9,054-4.7% 36.7% 26,880 27,145 1.0% 24.8% 116,718 127,834 9.5% 24.7% 53

Screenline Results Region 4 Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. Number Route Volume Volume Difference Allowable U51 18,262 18,241-0.1% 28.7% S14 7,556 6,746-10.7% 40.0% S205 8,168 11,249 37.7% 38.9% U79 16,366 16,366 0.0% 29.9% 4 U64 34,160 33,424-2.2% 22.6% I40 86,210 66,184-23.2% 14.0% S23 15,840 28,149 77.7% 30.3% U72 36,920 27,047-26.7% 22.0% S385 67,074 46,560-30.6% 16.7% 0 13,860 10,348-25.3% 31.8% 304,416 264,314-13.2% 18.3% S78 3,308 3,671 11.0% 54.7% I155 6,414 7,866 22.6% 42.6% S88 1,026 1,268 23.6% 85.0% U51 10,520 10,632 1.1% 35.3% S19 3,250 3,307 1.7% 55.0% 8 S54 2,106 2,013-4.4% 64.8% U70 1,436 1,768 23.1% 74.9% I40 22,740 22,031-3.1% 26.4% S59 1,960 2,767 41.2% 66.6% U64 13,680 14,215 3.9% 32.0% S57 11,030 12,116 9.8% 34.7% U72 13,348 16,353 22.5% 32.3% 90,818 98,006 7.9% 24.7% 54

Screenline Results Region 4 Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. Number Route Volume Volume Difference Allowable S54 2,574 2,743 6.5% 60.1% S22 7,498 8,144 8.6% 40.1% U79 5,870 5,853-0.3% 44.0% U70 A 2,406 2,444 1.6% 61.6% S104 874 850-2.8% 90.3% 18 U70 3,582 3,527-1.5% 53.0% I40 14,756 17,859 21.0% 31.1% U412 9,124 7,908-13.3% 37.3% S100 9,992 6,549-34.5% 36.0% U64 4,812 4,845 0.7% 47.4% S57 2,976 3,012 1.2% 56.9% 64,464 63,735-1.1% 33.3% U79 6,612 5,239-20.8% 42.1% U70 6,774 5,795-14.5% 41.7% I40 22,246 21,011-5.6% 26.6% 22 U412 7,634 7,054-7.6% 39.9% S100 3,416 2,979-12.8% 54.0% 0 448 336-24.9% 116.3% U64 2,724 3,178 16.7% 58.8% S69 2,200 2,198-0.1% 63.8% 52,054 47,788-8.2% 33.3% 55

Screenline Results River Crossings Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. River Route Volume Volume Difference Allowable S166 3,684 4,105 11.4% 52.5% I24 31,618 30,091-4.8% 23.3% U41 3,920 2,835-27.7% 51.3% U27 60,560 53,874-11.0% 18.0% U127 18,396 32,016 74.0% 28.6% S319 30,478 28,547-6.3% 23.6% S153 41,386 40,028-3.3% 21.1% S60 3,402 4,153 22.1% 54.1% Tennessee S30 1,796 2,533 41.0% 68.8% S68 5,218 5,483 5.1% 46.0% S58 11,872 9,534-19.7% 33.7% I75 36,692 36,267-1.2% 22.0% U11 7,342 9,460 28.8% 40.4% U321 10,688 12,836 20.1% 35.1% N140 41,412 43,903 6.0% 21.1% U129 45,804 46,433 1.4% 20.3% U441 41,092 50,715 23.4% 21.1% 11,880 18,084 52.2% 33.7% 407,240 430,895 5.8% 18.3% U79 7,446 7,940 6.6% 40.2% S13 21,160 21,226 0.3% 27.1% S49 10,732 9,821-8.5% 35.0% S155 28,520 21,917-23.2% 24.2% U41 A 41,514 51,435 23.9% 21.0% I65 86,258 96,578 12.0% 14.0% U41 27,030 40,459 49.7% 24.7% Cumberland I24 111,780 126,414 13.1% 13.5% S155 44,288 42,744-3.5% 20.5% S45 20,434 20,101-1.6% 27.5% S109 16,634 16,907 1.6% 29.7% U231 6,120 6,119 0.0% 43.3% S25 8,302 8,517 2.6% 38.6% S262 1,644 1,726 5.0% 71.2% S56 2,538 1,957-22.9% 60.4% S52 5,588 6,769 21.1% 44.8% 439,988 480,630 9.2% 18.3% 56

Screenline Results River Crossings Screenline Observed Model Relative Max. River Route Volume Volume Difference Allowable U70 12,446 8,917-28.4% 33.1% I40 35,120 36,710 4.5% 22.4% S58 11,426 12,064 5.6% 34.2% Clinch S95 8,070 7,876-2.4% 39.0% S62 33,948 33,962 0.0% 22.7% U25W 20,534 13,302-35.2% 27.4% S61 21,580 20,207-6.4% 26.9% 143,124 133,038-7.0% 20.2% I40 62,816 63,839 1.6% 17.5% U70 39,582 39,420-0.4% 21.4% Holst S92 4,268 7,231 69.4% 49.6% U25E 21,376 23,531 10.1% 27.0% S56 11,780 7,703-34.6% 33.8% S66 5,588 6,769 21.1% 44.8% 145,410 148,494 2.1% 20.2% S66 25,236 25,014-0.9% 25.4% French S92 2,544 4,650 82.8% 60.3% Broad U25 21,534 21,461-0.3% 26.9% 49,314 51,125 3.7% 33.3% 57

RMSE by Vol. Grp. Statewide % ROOT NO. OF MEAN VOLUME VOLUME COUNT SQUARE GROUP RANGE STATIONS ERROR 1 0-2500 67 27.2% 2 2500-5000 77 21.8% 3 5000-10000 79 15.9% 4 10000-15000 55 35.3% 5 15000-20000 21 25.4% 6 20000-30000 43 20.2% 7 30000-40000 28 18.2% 8 40000-50000 13 8.8% 9 50000+ 13 5.1% 58

Observed/Model Correlation 140,000 120,000 100,000 R 2 = 0.969 Model 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Observed 59

Freight Movement From Reebie Data Data Truck (Tons) Rail (Tons) Trucks Rail Cars 60

Commodity Categories Statewide Freight Model Commodity Group Commodity Group Flow No. Name (Annual Tons) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Petroleum & Minerals Food Products Chemicals Timber & Lumber Agriculture Machinery Paper Products Primary Metal Waste Materials 511,600,000 107,100,000 123,300,000 49,100,000 158,000,000 49,300,000 43,100,000 78,900,000 20,600,000 10 11 Manufactured Household & Other Miscellaneous & Container 34,000,000 104,500,000 ALL COMMODITY GROUPS 1,279,500,000 61

Mode Share By Distance Commodity Shipped by Distance (Truck & Rail) 100,000,000 90,000,000 Truck Rail 80,000,000 70,000,000 Commodity (Tons) 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Distance (Mile) 62

Commodity Growth (Million Tons) Truck and Rail 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Waste Materials Timber & Lumber Primary Metal Paper Product Mixed Shipment Machinery Household Goods Food Product Construction & Mining Chemicals Agriculture Product Year 2001 Year 2030 63

Commodity Growth (Million Tons) Trucks (78% of ) 700 600 500 400 300 200 Year 2003 Year 2030 10 0 0 Waste Materials Timber & Lumber Primary Metal Paper Product Mixed Shipment Machinery Household Goods Food Product Construction & Mining Chemicals Agriculture Product 64

2003 Truck Assignment 2030 Truck Assignment 65

2003 Volume-to-Capacity Ratio Existing Network 2030 Volume-to-Capacity Ratio Existing Network 66

2003 Volumes Existing Network 2030 Volumes 2030 Volumes Existing Network 67