How2Guide for Wind Energy Energy Training Week - 8 April 2014, Paris Simone Landolina, IEA OECD/IEA 2012
Outline of the session Introduction How2Guides: concept How2Guide for Wind Energy key elements 4 phases of the roadmap process Exercises drivers barriers and solutions 2
International Low-Carbon Energy Technology Platform The Technology Platform is the IEA chief tool for: Engaging with Partner countries and organisations on low-carbon energy technologies Adapting IEA global analysis to regional and local contexts OECD/IEA 2011 2014 Key information Created in 2010 upon mandate of the G8 and IEA Ministers to foster international collaboration on low-carbon energy technologies Three types of activities: 1. How2Guide manuals for roadmap development at the national and regional levels 2. Dialogue workshops and partnership building (engagement) 3. Selected thematic analysis (cross-cutting) 3
How2Guides: concept Building on the IEA global series of technology roadmaps (20+ publications) and IEA established roadmap methodology (updated 2014) Growing request for assistance from Partner Countries IEA-China Wind Roadmap (2012); IEA-India Cement Roadmap (2013); IEA-South Africa Solar Roadmap (forthcoming) How2Guides are a response to this context: Manuals for policy and decision makers to develop technology roadmaps tailored to national / regional frameworks 4
How2Guides Why are we doing this? To scale-up IEA capabilities to provide guidance to countries for national roadmap development To enhance the impact of the IEA s technology roadmap programme Is this only for developing countries? No but developing countries and emerging economies are a key audience for this initiative OECD/IEA countries which already have technology roadmaps can use it as a tool for internal revision, aiming at improvements in the energy mix Outputs How2Guide for Wind Energy (released on 10 March 2014) How2Guide for Bioenergy (expected Q1 2015) How2Guide for Smart Grids (expected in 2015) OECD/IEA 2011 2014 5
4. Support IEA global engagement strategy Multi-lateral dimension Support technology collaboration Analytical input across IEA Divisions IEA global engagement Technology Platform s How2Guide initiative 1. How2Guide (H2G) Stakeholder engagement Capture knowledge Toolbox 3. Training Bi-lateral Multi-lateral Train The Trainer (T3) 2. Capacity building Disseminate H2G content International best practice Secure commitment
How2Guide for Wind Energy Key elements: Defines the process of developing and implementing a wind energy roadmap Roadmap methodology guidance through four steps, illustrated by case studies Case studies from IEA Member and Partner countries (China, US, Brazil and South Africa) Focus on utility-scale wind energy installations (multi-mw WPPs) 7
How2Guide for Wind Energy Sharing lessons learned across regions Essential data and information collected during regional expert workshops: Oct 2012, The Philippines, with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) Feb 2013, South Africa, with the South African National Energy Development Institute (SANEDI) IEA-ADB H2G workshops for wind and smart grids, Oct 2012, Manila, The Philippines 8
Technology Roadmap vs How2Guide (1) Market, technology and cost evolution Medium-term outlook 2050 Vision based on global energy context and system optimization Actions and time frames Very short introduction to technology and market Roadmap development process Step-by-step decision making guidance Analysis of drivers, barriers, solutions 9
Technology Roadmap vs How2Guide (2) Land-based wind represents largest RE capacity addition over 2012-2018 Technology evolution: growth in size, height and capacity. Investment costs for wind power to decrease by 25% on land and 45% off shore by 2050 By 2050 wind power to provide 15% to 18% of global electricity. China, Europe and the USA together account for two thirds Key aspects of baseline research for wind energy roadmap will likely include the following: ( ) Table 3 indicates typical wind energy stakeholders and their categorisation Barriers encountered in the development phase of WPP mainly concern ( ) 15 action options [indicators] Statistics of production failure will be of particular value in the assessment of progress 10
Roadmap process Adapted from IEA Roadmap Guide (2014). Note: Timescales are indicative. Dotted lines indicate optional steps, based on analysis capabilities and resources. 11
Phase 1: planning and preparation Identifying wind energy stakeholders Authorised Responsible Informed Consulted A simple chart can help organise the stakeholders (RACI): Responsible (final approval authority, steering committee ) Authorised (team responsible for the roadmap) Consulted (stakeholders who attend workshops) Informed (but not expected to provide inputs or feedback) 12
Phase 1: planning and preparation Identifying wind energy stakeholders 13
Phase 1: planning and preparation Key aspects for baseline research on wind energy: the wind energy potential within the designated geographic area, based on a resource assessment the extent to which the evolving energy system and market can manage wind output variability and uncertainty the extent to which supply chains and the available specialised workforce can match levels of ambition the role of wind power in the wider energy portfolio and national power market wider energy policy and its impact on competing energy technologies 14
Phase 2: visioning A successful roadmap contains a clear statement of the desired outcome, followed by a specific pathway for reaching it. Identify main drivers behind development of wind energy (diversify energy mix, CO 2 reduction targets, domestic industry, etc) 15
Phase 3: roadmap development Identifying barriers and actions to overcome them: 1. Planning relating to developing WPPs (including environment factors) 2. Development aspects (including social acceptance factors) 3. Electricity market and system aspects 4. Financial and economic aspects 5. Infrastructure aspects (including availability of specialised professionals). 16
Phase 4: implementation and revision Consider whether the roadmap itself needs adjusting in light of experiences gained through implementation Qualitative and quantitative indicators to track and monitor progress in implementing a wind energy roadmap The How2Guide for Wind Energy identifies 35 possible indicators, the choice of which one to use is country/region-specific For each indicator, identify stakeholders responsible for monitoring and reporting 17
Conclusions Wind power can contribute up to 18% of the world s electricity supply by 2050 Saving up to 4.8 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions per year National and regional roadmaps can play a key role in supporting wind energy development and implementation, helping countries to identify priorities and pathways which are tailored to local resources and markets. Cost-effective penetration of wind energy requires the engagement of a wide range of stakeholders
Questions & Answers 19
Interactive exercises Class divided in 3 groups. Exercises: 1. Key questions for baseline research on wind energy 2. Identifying wind drivers 3. Wind barriers and action options 4. Wind indicators and milestones 20
Ex. Phase 1: baseline research Goal: drawing a picture of wind energy in the country or region in question Try to identify key questions for baseline research to developing a wind roadmap, including the perspective of different stakeholder categories / different countries (Table 1). Time: 10 minutes. Three focus groups: A. Wind resource and technology B. Market and energy system C. Public policy In parallel, 3 readers will select key questions from the H2G list. 21
Ex. phase 2: identifying wind drivers Why are drivers important? They create a common understanding of why a higher share of wind is being considered for the energy mix. They are the pillars for defining a vision for wind energy. They provide rational to reject undesirable technologies, project types and outcomes. 22
Wind TWh/yr Wind power deployment to 2050 in the IEA Roadmap Vision 8000 7000 2DS 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 China OECD Europe United States Other Developing Asia Middle East OECD Asia Oceanic Other OECD NA Africa India Eastern Europe and FSU Latin America hiren (TWh) Source: IEA Technology Roadmap for Wind Energy (2013) Wind power to provide 15% to 18% of global electricity China, Europe and the USA together account for two thirds 23
Ex. phase 2: identifying wind drivers Each group to select a country. Which are the drivers of your country? (5 Minutes) Reducing demand for fossil fuels, influencing market prices Energy security and hedge against volatility of market prices Meet reduction targets for CO 2 emission and other pollutants Industrial strategic priority and job creation NOTE: policy and decision makers must also take into account costs: LCOE and integration costs IEA 2014, The Power of Transformation (ch. 4) 24
Ex phase 3: barriers and action options Class divided in 3 groups: A. Planning and development aspects to WPPs (e.g. lack or inaccurate data on wind resource) B. Electricity markets, infrastructure and system aspects (e.g. transmission and/or distribution grids are inadequate ) C. Financial and economic aspects (e.g. high upfront costs prevent wind energy development) First, try to identify at least 2 additional barriers for each of these categories (5 minutes). Then, try to identify at least 2 action options for each of the barriers (5 minutes). OECD/IEA 2011 OECD/IEA 2014 25
Ex. phase 4: indicators and milestones The How2Guide for Wind Energy identifies 35 indicators (Table 10, page 28): 1. Wind technology deployment 2. Financial 3. Processes 4. Policy 5. Socio-economic and environmental impact Each group should identify 5 key indicators as well as stakeholders responsible for reporting and monitoring in a selected country. 26
Thank you for your attention and many thanks also to the other authors and contributors! Simone Landolina International Low-Carbon Energy Technology Platform International Energy Agency 9, rue de la Fédération 75739 Paris Cedex 15 France tel: +33 (0)1 40 57 66 14 Email: TechPlatform@iea.org