TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary... 11 1. Demand... 15 Highlights... 15 Global Overview... 16 Macroeconomic environment and prices... 18 Coming changes in bunker fuel specifications... 19 Booming demand for petrochemicals... 23 OECD demand... 27 OECD Americas... 28 OECD Europe... 30 OECD Asia Oceania... 31 Non-OECD demand... 32 Africa... 33 China... 34 Other Asia... 37 Non-OECD Europe... 39 Former Soviet Union (FSU)... 40 Latin America... 41 Middle East... 42 2. Supply... 45 Highlights... 45 Global Overview... 45 Decline rates slow at mature fields... 49 Non-OPEC oil supplies... 51 Strong growth lifts US to record highs... 52 Majors bet big on Brazil... 55 Canada poised for strong growth, but export constraints crimp future gains... 57 Mexican growth delayed by reluctant farm-out partners... 57 Mixed bag in Latin America... 59 North Sea boost... 60 Russian plateau... 62 Modest growth in the Caspian... 63 Asian region sees biggest decline... 64 Africa falls... 65 Conflict prevents Middle East rebound... 66 OPEC... 66 Iraq dominates expansion... 67 Downward spiral in Venezuela... 71 Angola drags on Africa... 73 Iran drives OPEC gas liquids supply... 75 OIL MARKET REPORT 2018 5
Global biofuel supply... 76 Key ethanol market developments... 77 Key biodiesel and HVO market developments... 78 3. Refining and trade... 81 Highlights... 81 Setting the stage... 81 Refining Outlook... 85 Atlantic Basin... 87 East of Suez... 90 The year 2020 problem: implications of bunker fuel specification change... 94 Quantity vs quality... 96 Crude Trade... 98 Product Trade... 103 Ethane/LPG... 104 Gasoline/naphtha... 104 Diesel/kerosene... 105 Fuel oil... 105 4. SPECIAL FEATURE North american oil looking for a way out... 107 Highlights... 107 Overview... 107 Canada: Oil pipelines stretched to the limit... 109 Planned investments... 110 Takeaway capacity to rise, but not until 2019-20... 111 West Texas: Strong investments amid production growth... 113 Planned investments... 114 Some capacity constrains in 2018-19... 116 US Gulf Coast: Connectivity, storage terminals key to higher exports... 117 Planned investments... 118 US crude export capacity to reach 4.9 mb/d by 2023... 121 5. Tables... 122 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 Global oil demand, y-o-y change... 15 Figure 1.2 Global oil demand by product and fuel oil breakdown y-o-y change... 17 Figure 1.3 Marine fuel demand in OECD and major non-oecd countries and shares... 21 Figure 1.4 Impact of IMO regulation on the global product market y-o-y change... 22 Figure 1.5 US oil demand by product, y-o-y change... 29 Figure 1.6 OECD Europe oil demand, y-o-y change... 31 Figure 1.7 Chinese oil demand, y-o-y change... 34 Figure 1.8 Indian oil demand, y-o-y change... 38 Figure 1.9 Russian oil demand, y-o-y change... 40 OIL MARKET REPORT 2018 6
Figure 1.10 Brazilian oil demand, y-o-y change... 42 Figure 1.11 Saudi Arabian oil demand, y-o-y change... 43 Figure 1.12 Iranian oil demand, y-o-y change... 44 Figure 2.1 Global liquids capacity growth... 46 Figure 2.2 Global capacity growth 2017-23... 46 Figure 2.3 Highs and Lows: Change in total oil supply 2017-23... 46 Figure 2.4 Change in crude oil production and gross revenues - 2017 vs 2016... 47 Figure 2.5 Global oil and gas upstream capital spending 2012-18... 47 Figure 2.6 Production volumes by FID year... 48 Figure 2.7 Investment by sanction year... 48 Figure 2.8 Global oil discoveries... 49 Figure 2.9 Observed global decline rates for post peak conventional oil fields... 50 Figure 2.10 Annual supply loss from post-peak conventional crude oil fields... 50 Figure 2.11 Selected observed decline rates... 51 Figure 2.12 US total oil supply... 53 Figure 2.13 US supply growth... 53 Figure 2.14 Wellhead break-even by play... 54 Figure 2.15 LTO production by play... 54 Figure 2.16 Canada total oil supply... 57 Figure 2.17 Canada supply growth... 57 Figure 2.18 Mexican oil supply... 58 Figure 2.19 Other Latin America oil supply... 60 Figure 2.20 Other Latin America annual change... 60 Figure 2.21 North Sea oil supply... 61 Figure 2.22 North Sea annual change... 61 Figure 2.23 Russia oil supply... 63 Figure 2.24 Kazakhstan oil supply... 64 Figure 2.25 Azerbaijan oil supply... 64 Figure 2.26 Asia oil supply... 65 Figure 2.27 Asia supply - annual change... 65 Figure 2.28 Non-OPEC Africa oil supply... 66 Figure 2.29 Africa annual supply growth... 66 Figure 2.30 Venezuelan collapse blunts Mideast gains... 67 Figure 2.31 Iraq leads gains... 69 Figure 2.32 UAE s growth spurt... 69 Figure 2.33 Iran expands... 70 Figure 2.34 Saudi sustains spare capacity... 70 Figure 2.35 Venezuela s story of decline... 73 Figure 2.36 Angola: Past its prime... 73 Figure 2.37 Nigeria s fragile recovery... 74 Figure 2.38 Libya s tenuous comeback... 74 Figure 2.39 Ethanol (left) and biodiesel (right) production 2009-23... 77 Figure 3.1 Riding the wave: oil prices rebound on crude stocks decline... 82 Figure 3.2 Crossing the mountain: refined product surplus is largely behind... 82 Figure 3.3 Upstream vs downstream earnings... 83 Figure 3.4 NGLs take the larger share in refined product demand substitution... 83 OIL MARKET REPORT 2018 7
Figure 3.5 Global liquid fuel supply structure in 2017 (mb/d)... 84 Figure 3.6 Global refinery capacity net additions by region... 85 Figure 3.7 Growing excess refining capacity... 85 Figure 3.8 Top 10 refining regions by throughput (mb/d), 2023 vs 2013... 86 Figure 3.9 Atlantic Basin vs East of Suez... 87 Figure 3.10 US refining: the sky is the limit?... 88 Figure 3.11 Latin American refining woes send imports soaring... 88 Figure 3.12 Refining renaissance in Europe... 89 Figure 3.13 Atlantic Basin refining throughput change by region... 90 Figure 3.14 CDU capacity net additions... 90 Figure 3.15 China s refining growth more balanced in 2017... 92 Figure 3.16 Growing mismatch... 92 Figure 3.17 East of Suez refining throughput change by region... 93 Figure 3.18 Refining capacity additions to 2020 for selected units... 95 Figure 3.19 Solutions and challenges in the 3.2 mb/d of HSFO bunker switch in 2020... 96 Figure 3.20 Future crude oil slate perceptions... 98 Figure 3.21 Top five net importers of crude oil... 100 Figure 3.22 Largest changes in net crude exports, 2017-23... 100 Figure 3.23 East of Suez crude oil balance (adjusted for direct flows from Russia/Kazakhstan)... 102 Figure 3.24 Seaborne crude oil imports... 103 LIST OF MAPS Map 2.1 Venezuelan Oil Sector... 72 Map 3.1 Regional crude oil balances in 2017 and 2023 (mb/d)... 99 Map 3.2 Major crude trade flows, 2017 (2023), mb/d... 101 Map 3.3 Regional LPG/ethane balances in 2017 and 2023 (kb/d)... 104 Map 3.4 Regional gasoline/naphtha balances in 2017 and 2023 (kb/d)... 105 Map 3.5 Regional diesel/kerosene balances in 2017 and 2023 (kb/d)... 106 Map 3.6 Regional fuel oil balances in 2017 and 2023 (kb/d)... 106 Map 4.1 Canada s existing and planned pipelines... 109 Map 4.2 Texas existing and planned pipelines... 115 LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1 Global oil product demand by region (mb/d)... 16 Table 1.2 Global oil demand by product (mb/d)... 16 Table 1.3 Macroeconomic assumptions... 18 Table 1.4 Bunker deliveries in OECD and main Non-OECD countries (kb/d)... 21 Table 1.5 Available steam capacities... 23 Table 1.6 US ethylene production capacity additions... 24 Table 1.7 Chinese ethylene production capacity additions... 25 Table 1.8 Russian ethylene production capacity additions... 26 Table 1.9 Iran s ethylene production capacity additions... 26 Table 1.10 Selected ethylene production capacity additions... 27 Table 1.11 OECD oil demand by region (kb/d)... 28 OIL MARKET REPORT 2018 8
Table 1.12 OECD Americas oil demand by product (kb/d)... 28 Table 1.13 OECD Americas oil demand by country (kb/d)... 28 Table 1.14 OECD Europe oil demand by product (kb/d)... 30 Table 1.15 OECD Europe oil demand in selected countries (kb/d)... 31 Table 1.16 OECD Asia Oceania oil demand by product (kb/d)... 31 Table 1.17 OECD Asia Oceania oil demand by country (kb/d)... 32 Table 1.18 Non-OECD countries oil demand (kb/d)... 32 Table 1.19 African oil demand by product (kb/d)... 33 Table 1.20 African oil demand in selected countries (kb/d)... 33 Table 1.21 Chinese oil demand (kb/d)... 34 Table 1.22 Chinese electric bus sales... 36 Table 1.23 Chinese Natural Gas vehicles... 36 Table 1.24 Chinese LNG trucks... 37 Table 1.25 Non-OECD Asia - excluding mainland China: oil demand by product (kb/d)... 38 Table 1.26 Non-OECD Asia - excluding mainland China: oil demand in selected countries (kb/d)... 38 Table 1.27 Non-OECD Europe oil demand (kb/d)... 39 Table 1.28 Non-OECD Europe oil demand in selected countries (kb/d)... 39 Table 1.29 FSU oil demand by product (kb/d)... 40 Table 1.30 FSU oil demand in selected countries (kb/d)... 40 Table 1.31 Latin America oil demand by product (kb/d)... 41 Table 1.32 Latin America oil demand in selected countries (kb/d)... 41 Table 1.33 Middle East oil demand by product (kb/d)... 42 Table 1.34 Middle East oil demand in selected countries (kb/d)... 43 Table 1.35 Non-OPEC supply (mb/d)... 52 Table 1.36 Estimated sustainable OPEC crude production capacity (mb/d)... 67 Table 2.1 US oil supply forecast (kb/d)... 55 Table 2.2 Brazilian oil supply forecast (kb/d)... 55 Table 2.3 Estimated OPEC condensate and NGL production (kb/d)... 76 Table 3.1 Total oil demand and call on refined products (mb/d)... 84 Table 3.2 Regional developments in refining capacity and throughput... 86 Table 4.1 Planned investments in Canadian takeaway capacity... 111 Table 4.2 Planned investments in Permian/Eagle Ford crude and condensate pipelines... 116 Table 4.3 Planned investments in US Gulf Coast crude and condensate pipelines... 119 Table 4.4 Existing and planned US Gulf Coast crude export terminals... 120 OIL MARKET REPORT 2018 9