US and World Grain Supply & Demand As of 1 July 2012 Jay O Neil International Grains Program at Kansas State University joneil@ksu.edu
Who is the Worlds Largest Wheat Producer? Who is the Worlds Largest Corn Producer?
CORN MARKET
CME Corn-Soybean Ration (SX/CZ) 2009 2012
2012-13 Major U.S. Crop Production Acres
2007-08 = 93.5 mil. Acres = 37.84 mi. HA 2010-11.= 88.2 million Acres = 35.69 mil. HA 2011-12 Est. =91.9 million Acres =37.19 mil. HA 2012-13 Est. =96.4 million Acres =39.01 mil. HA
2004-05 = 10.06 mt/ha 2009-10 = 10.33 mt/ha 20010-11 = 9.59 mt/ha 2011-12 est. = 9.23 mt/ha (147.2 bu/acre) 2012-13 est. = 10.41 mt/ha (166 bu/acre) Or is it 151 bu/acre = 9.48 mt/ha??
2009-10= 332.56 mil.mt 2010-11= 316.14 mil. mt 2011-12= 313.90 mil mt Estimated 2012-13 = 377.62 mmt Estimated Or is it?
2007-08 = 61.90 mil.mt 2008-09 = 46.97 mil.mt 2009-10 = 50.29 mil.mt 2010-2011 = 46.61mil. mt. 2011-12 est = 41.91 mmt 2012-13 est.= 48.26 mmt
U.S. Grain Sorghum
2012-13 Acres est.=6.21 million = 2.5 mil. HA 5.24 million Acres x Yield of 54.6 = Production of 2.839 million bushels 2.12 million HA x 3.427 Yield = 7.26 million mt Production 1960 2012
212 plants 2 Plants under construction/expansion April 2012 text22
ETHANOL FACILITIES Total Current Ethanol Plants 209 (August 2011) Name Plate Capacity of 14.7 billion gallons Producing 13.95 Billion gallons per year (52.8 billion liters) Total plants under construction or expansion - 2 Total capacity under construction 133 million Gal.+ (.503 billion liters). Total Reported Capacity after 2012 construction = 14.83 Billion gallons = (56.13 billion liters). Some major companies do not report capacity. Updated: April 2012 www.ethanolrfa.org (RFA)
Reported Name Plate Capacity = 14.71 billion gallons Reported Operating Production = 13.95 billion gallons 5 % of Capacity not operating 10 April 2012
New U.S. Energy Bill The new energy bill calls for a 36 billion gallon/year (136.26 bil. liters) renewable fuels standard (RFS) by 2022. Current RF Standard calls for 9 billion gallons (34 bil. liters) of renewable full production by 2012. The new mandate will require the production of 15 billion gallons (56.8 bil. liters) by 2015 and will add 3 billion gallons of fuel derived from cellulosic material (11.35 bil. liters) per year to that from 2016 to 2022 when the total mandate will reach 36 billion gallons (this is 4 times current production levels). Aside from the increased demand for corn that this will create, it will be a real challenge to develop infrastructure capabilities to blend and transport this volume of products (corn, ethanol and the DDGS).
Next-Generation Bio-Fuels Plants
New US Renewable Fuel Standard 150 140 124.9 136.3 130 120 110 90.8 102.2113.6 100 90 79.5 80 68.1 70 56.8 60 50 30 33 36 40 21 24 27 30 15 18 20 10 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Billion Gal. Billion Liters
Fob Vessel DDGS Price vs. Corn
CORN Displaced by DDGS in Feed Rations Year Million YC bushels DDGS Production Million Tonnes DDGS Exports 2002-03 189 4.7 2003-04 253 6.0 2004-05 329 6.5 2005-06 342 8.4 2006-07 569 12.0 2007-08 914 19.2 3.9 2008-09 927 24.5 4.65 2009-10 1102 31.3 5.25 2010-11 1192 34.0 9.0 2011-12 1189 35.5 8.0 est. 2012-13 1192 35.6 7.4 est. *** The above estimates come from the ProExporter Network However- Relatively Cheap Feed Wheat and SBM is cutting DDGS demand
ProExporter Network
DDGS
REST of the WORLD CORN SUPPLY
2011 US Percentage of World Trade Corn = 45.7 % Soybeans = 43.8 % Wheat = 28.2 %
2012-13 Eight Major World Corn Producers = 85% of World Crop mil.mt
WORLD PERCENT of CORN EXPORTS
6 Major Corn Exporters =90 % of World Trade
25.0 million MT 2013-Exports 16.0 mil.mt
67.0 mil. MT Exports 12.0 mil mt.
2008-09 Est.= 165.9 mil.mt (159?) 2009-10 Est.= 155.0 mil.mt (Some say 145 mil. mt?) 2010-11 est.= 168 mil.mt (Some say 160 mil mt?) 2011-12 est.= 178 mil. Mt 2012-13 est.= 195. mil mt
2011-12 Imports = 2.0 million mt 2012-13 imports = 7.0-7.0 mmt?
UKRAINE CORN EXPORTS MILLION METRIC TONS 6 5 4 3 2 1 2008 2011 exports Est. Corn = Production 5.5 million mt = 11.9 mil.mt (exports est. at 5.5 mmt) 2012 Est. Corn Production = 18.0 mil. mt (Exports est. at 10.0 mmt) 2013- Est. Corn production = 24.0 mmm. (Exports = 14.0 mmt) 0 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 CROP YEAR BEGINNING
2012-13 World Corn Production = 949.93 million mt 2012-13 World Corn Consumption = 923.39 million mt
2012-13 World Corn Ending Stocks = 155.74 million mt = 17 % Stocks to use Ratio (61 days of usage)
on Farm $275.57/mt $255.90/mt $216.53/MT $196.85/MT $157.47/MT $118.10/mt
CME December Corn Futures (CZ2)
SOYBEAN MARKET
2011-12 est.= 75.0 mil. acres = 30.35 mil. HA 2012-13 est.= 76.1 mil acres = 30.8 million HA
2012-2013 Estimate = 41.8 bushels/acre = 2.95 mt/ha
2011-12 Est. Production = 3,056 mil. bushels or 83.17 million mt 2012-13 Est. Production = 3,205 mil. bushels or 87.22 million mt
2011-12 Est. Exports = 35.79 mmt 2012-13 est. Exports = 40.41 mmt. 20.0 mil.mt or 50 % of this to China?
Ending Stocks = 140 million bushels = 3.8 million mt Stocks to Use ratio =.04 % (15.7 days usage)
To Farmers $507.05/mt $367.43/mt $293.95/mt $183.71/mt $154.32/mt
OTHER COUNTRIES
Est. for 2011-2012 Crop = 41.50 mil. Mt Exports at 7.8 mmt Est. for 2012-2013 Crop = 55.00 mil. Mt Exports at 10.10 mmt
2011-12 Production Est. = 65.5 mmt 2012-13 Production Est. = 78.0 mmt 2011-12 Exports 36.70 mil/mt 2012-13 Exports 34.20 mil/mt
USA = 87.23 mil. mt Brazil = 78.00 mil mt Argentina = 55.00 mil. mt = 220.23 mil mt of world total 271.03 mil mt 271.03 mmt 81 % of World Production
74.52 mil. mt
2012-13 Imports estimated at 61.0 mmt = 82 % of domestic consumption China Imports of 59-61 mmt out of 96.71 mil.mt of total world trade = 62 % of world trade in soybeans. (20 mil.mt from USA?)
2012-13 World Soybean Production = 271.03 million mt 2012-13 World Soybean Consumption = 264.95 million mt
58.54 mil. mt = 22 % = 81 days usage
With a 7% annual increase in Soybean demand, the world needs to add a minimum of 6 million acres (2.4 million HA) of new soybean land each year. Total Cerrado Land Area = 510 million Acres = 206 million HA Currently Cropped for grain= 25 million acres = 10 million HA Potential new Crop Area = 100-150 million acres = 40-60 million HA
WHEAT MARKET
2012-13 Crop Year = Est. 55.9 million acres = 22.62 million HA
2012-13 est. = 2.077 million bushels = Est. 60.80 mmt
Production = 12.0 mmt Exports = 6.20 mil mt
Exports = 20.50 mmt 26.0 mil.mt
Exports = 18.5 mil mt 27.0 mil.mt
Exports = 1.0 mil mt Imports = 2.5 mil. mt 120.0 mil. mt
Exports = 14.5 mil.mt Imports = 5.5 mil. mt 131.01 mil mt
Exports 2.50 mmt 91.0 mil.mt
2012-13 Exports = 16.0 mil.mt 2012-2013 est. = 53.0 million mt
Wheat Planting in Russia -Town of Kastoroye, Kursk Region Russia (275 miles south of Moscow) Black Earth Farming Ltd. 18,000 hectares or 44,478 acres of Wheat.
2012-13 Production est. = 15.0 mil mt (down 7.0 mmt from last yr.) Exports = 8.5 mil mt.
Ukraine Wheat Production vs. Usage, 1987-2010 MMT 35 30 25 Production Exports Usage 2012-13 est. = 13.0 million mt. (down 9.1 mil mt from last yr. Exports = 4.0 mil.mt 20 15 13 10 5 0 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Crop Year Beginning 12
2012-2013 Production Est. = 672.06 mil.mt 2012-2013 Consumption Est. = 681.87 mil.mt
2012-13 World Ending Stocks Est. at 185.76 mmt =27 % of use or 99 days of consumption
Highest percentage carried by China 57.49 mmt 185.76 mmt
So; What s Going On? What is The Market Watching?
Central US, month of June, should rank as the #1 driest since 1988, #2 driest since 1936 and #5 driest over 1895 2012. 25 June 2012
25 June 2012
AUM s (Assets Under Management) March 2011 $410 Billion
GRACIAS THANK YOU Jay O Neil IGP @ Kansas State University joneil@ksu.edu