GEOTHERMAL ENERGY IN EUROPE AND THE REST OF THE WORLD GEOTERMIKONFERENCE PÅ CHRISTIANSBORG ALEXANDER RICHTER THINKGEOENERGY 19 FEBRUARY 2018
TOP 10 GEOTHERMAL COUNTRIES INSTALLED CAPACITY - MW (FEBRUARY 2018) 14,060 MW IN TOTAL United States Philippines Indonesia Turkey New Zealand Mexico Italy Iceland Kenya Japan Other 1,100 980 951 944 710 676 542 889 1,868 1,809 3,591 1 GW Country Club 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Source: TGE Research (2017), GEA (2016), IGA (2015), JESDER (2017) Enerji Atlasi (2017)
TOP 10 GEOTHERMAL COUNTRIES INSTALLED CAPACITY & PROJECTS - MW (February 2018) Indonesia 1,809 3,958 United States 3,591 1,248 Philippines 1,868 1,651 Turkey 1,100 798 1 GW Country Club Kenya 676 1,037 Mexico 951 456 New Zealand 980 285 Iceland Italy 710 944 495 145 Projects & permitted Ethiopia 8 987 Future members Other 1,423 2,817 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Source: ThinkGeoEnergy Research (2017), GEA (2016), IGA (2015)
GEOTHERMAL COUNTRIES INSTALLED CAPACITY - MW (FEBRUARY 2018) United States Philippines Indonesia Turkey New Zealand Mexico Italy Iceland Kenya Japan Costa Rica El Salvador Nicaragua Russia Papua New Chile Guatemala Germany Portugal China Guadeloupe Ethiopia Hungary France Australia Austria 205 205 109 97 56 48 42 40 29 27 16 8 3 2 1 1 542 710 676 1,100 980 951 944 1,868 1,809 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Source: TGE Research (2017), GEA (2016), IGA (2015), Enerji Atlasi (2017) 3,591
TOP 10 GEOTHERMAL COUNTRIES BY PROJECTS UNDER DEVELOPMENT - MW (JANUARY 2018) Indonesia Philippines United States Kenya Ethiopia Turkey Iceland Mexico New Zealand Guatemala Other 1,651 1,248 1,037 987 798 495 456 285 250 2,712 3,958 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Source: TGE Research (2017), GEA (2016), IGA (2015), JESDER (2017) Enerji Atlasi (2017)
GEOTHERMAL REGIONAL MARKETS INSTALLED CAPACITY & PROJECTS - MWe (OCTOBER 2017) Asia 4,241 5,836 North America 4,493 1,858 Europe 1,823 1,337 Africa 684 2,234 Middle East Aus., NZ & Pacific 1,020 1,139 1,037 354 Projects & permitted Cent. America & Caribbean South America 577 48 620 798 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Source: ThinkGeoEnergy Research (2017), GEA (2016), IGA (2015)
GLOBAL GEOTHERMAL POTENTIAL POWER GENERATION POTENTIAL (MWe) 32,200 4,496 Resources North America 577 High temperature regions Current installed capacity 6,423 27,400 618 Resources Cent. America & Caribbean Projects & inferred resources Hydrothermal resource estimates 48 30,800 730 Resources South America 1,826 Europe 3,400 1,271 Resources 1,100 684 Middle East Africa 2,550 853 Resources 11,600 2,249 Resources 4,241 70,900 5,836 Resources Asia 1,037 7,700 Resources Aus., NZ & Pacific Sources: ThinkGeoEnergy, Geothermal Energy Association, IGA, Chevron Note: Capacity of 2017 [2015], resource estimates combined (1999-2012) IGA estimates a conservative total potential of 70,000 MW and with technology improvements (extended use of low heat and EGS resources) at around 140,000 MW in power generation capacity. 666
TURKEY GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT INSTALLED POWER GENERATION CAPACITY 1984-2018 2,000 1,800 1,600 527 1,400 1,200 271 1,000 1,109 800 600 400 200 0 15 15 23 23 30 77 94 117 163 350 442 660 859 Source: JESDER (2018), Enerji Atlasi (2018), TGE Research (2018)
GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT INDONESIA VS. TURKEY INSTALLED CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY YEAR (MW) + PLANNED 2018 2,200 255 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 Indonesia Capacity added Planned capacity Average plant size: 49 MW Turkey Capacity added Planned capacity Average plant size: 19 MW 257 2 60 20 204 Indonesia installed capacity 1,809 MW 141 115 187 20 3 20 55 35 Turkey installed capacity 1,100 MW 218 210 200 165 250 271 400 175 187 92 200 0 30 110 15 8 7 47 17 23 47 Sources: TGE Research (2018), Pertamina (2018), Ifnaldi Sikumbang (2017), JESDER (2018)
ENERGY DEMAND EUROPEAN UNION 2013 FINAL DEMAND BY SECTOR IN EUR28: 14,000 TWH 2013 Final Demand by Sector in EUR28 (%) Heating & Cooling - Commercial 9% Commercial - Other 4% Residential - Other 5% Transport 33% Heating & Cooling - Residential 20% Heating & Cooling - Industry 15% Feedstock 6% Industry - Other 8% HEATING DEMAND 44% Source: IHS Energy Multi-client Study Beyond the Flame: The Transformation of Europe s Heat Sector (2016)
CHINA THE $90 BILLION PUSH FOR SMOKE FREE CITIES
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY GLOBAL DIRECT USE 2015 (UTILIZATION IN % BASED ON TJ/ YEAR) Direct use utilization with heat pumps 2015 (TJ/ yr) Heat pumps 55.30% Greenhouse Heating 4.54% Space Heating 15.01% Industrial uses 1.78% Cooling/ snow melting 0.44% Bathing & Swimming, 20.31% Aquaculture 2.03% Agricultural drying 0.35% Others 0.25% Direct use utilization without heat pumps 2015 (TJ/ yr) Bathing & swimming 44.74% Greenhouse heating 8.96% Space heating 36.98% Industrial use 2.99% Agriculture drying 0.79% Aquaculture 3.40% Cooling/ snow melting 1.76% Others 0.39% Source: Lund, J. Direct Utilization of Geothermal Energy 2015 Worldwide Review (IGA, WGC 2015)
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY GLOBAL DIRECT USE CAPACITY MW THERMAL 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 Other direct use Heat pumps Estimates 27,000 60,000 20,431 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 15,359 68,000 49,898 12,885 33,124 9,870 6,810 15,384 1,845 5,275 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 (e) Source: Lund, J. Direct Utilization of Geothermal Energy 2015 Worldwide Review (IGA, WGC 2015)
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY EUROPEAN OVERVIEW European Capacity Geothermal Power & District Heating (2016 European Capacity Geothermal District Heating (2016 2,200 Source: EGEC Geothermal Market Report 2016 (2017)
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY GEOTHERMAL DISTRICT HEATING PLANTS IN OPERATION & PLANNED Source: EGEC Geothermal Market Report 2016 (2017)
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES Technical Resource Drilling Resource risks Equipment
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES Business, Finance Financial structures Risk mitigation (insurance) Development time Off-taker Structure of projects
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