Office of the Chief Economist Office of Energy Policy and New Uses

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Transcription:

Philadelphia Inquirer, Jan. 6, 2007

OVERVIEW OF AGRICULTURE FOR BIOFUELS IN THE U. S. By Hosein Shapouri, Ph. D. CRC WORKSHOP ON LIFE CYCLE ANAYSIS OF BIOFUELS Argonne National Laboratory Argonne, IL, Oct. 20-21, 2009

OVERVIEW Biofuels RFS2 Biofuel feedstock Land in farms Unresolved and environmental Issues of biofuel feedstock production Challenges & Opportunities

Biofuels 1 st generation, corn-ethanol, sugar-ethanol, biodiesel ( vegetable oil, used vegetable oil, animal fats) 2 nd generation, cellulosic biofuels 3 rd generation, biofuel from organic wastes (solid waste, biosolids, animal wastes, green wastes, food production and pulp and paper wastes), and non organic wastes (plastics, auto shredding residues, tires) 4 th generation, biofuel from plants that can sequester high levels of CO2 (algae, eucalyptus)

Feedstock for Biofuel, 1 st & 2 nd Generation Agriculture and forest residues Agriculture and Forest industry by products Crops Dedicated Energy crops: Herbaceous Woody

40 EISA EPACT Renewable Fuels Standard RFS1 Conventional - Corn Starch Biobased Diesel Cellulosic Biofuels Other Advanced Biofuels 35 Other Biofuels 30 Billion Gallons Years 25 20 15 Biobased Diesel Cellulosic Biofuels 10 Conventional Corn Starch 5 RFS1 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Billion Gallons Years

Expanding Biofuel Feedstock Increasing export demand for food and high crop returns limit the expansion and conversion of crops to dedicated energy crops Expansion of land come from- cropland, cropland idled by farmers and government programs, cropland pasture, and summer fallow International response to higher commodity prices can change the equation Cropland expansion at the global level is possible in several countries (Angola, Rep. of Congo, Sudan, Brazil, Argentina, and others) Conversion of land (rain forest, savanna and pasture) to crops in the above countries can increase GHG emissions

Unresolved Issues Food vs. fuel Indirect land use change (ILUC)

Environmental Issues Nutrient and other contaminant runoff Water quality and availability Soil loss due to water and wind erosion Greenhouse gas emissions ( CO2 and non CO2) Invasive species

Federal Programs To Assist Farmers Major commodities: Income and commodity price support- direct payments, counter-cyclical payments, marketing loan assistance program, average crop revenue election (ACRE) payments Biofuels: Biomass Crop Assistance Program (BCAP) Renewable Fuel Standard

Challenges Require a long-term contract between biorefineries and farmers or farm cooperatives to reduce production risk High production, harvesting, storage, and transportation costs could squeeze profit Competition with other crops could put pressure on resources Inadequate infra-structure (logistics) can increase costs

Opportunities Higher yield per acre for major crops and dedicated energy crops free up the cropland Higher yields reduces pressure on land use More efficient farm machinery can reduce costs More efficient method to store and haul biomass feedstock to bio-refineries can enhance competitiveness of industry

Thank You Hosein Shapouri hshapouri@oce.usda.gov 202 401 0531