The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Rob Gardner October, 216 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 24 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 215. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading Factors Affecting Future Results in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. 1
Energy Outlook Development 1 countries 15 demand sectors trade flows 2 fuel types technology & policy 2 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Key Energy Outlook Themes Energy is fundamental to standards of living. Developing nations lead gains in GDP and living standards. Economics and policies impact the fuel mix. Oil remains the world s primary fuel through 24. Natural gas grows more than any other energy source. Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty. 3 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global Trends Continue to Evolve 125% Growth from 214 Level Percent GDP 1% 75% 5% 25% Demand Population % 214 24 Carbon Emissions 4 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Energy Fuels Human Development U.N. Human Development Index 213 Index 1. Norway Germany United States.75 Brazil Bangladesh India China.5 Nigeria Congo.25. 1 1 1 1 Source: United Nations, ExxonMobil estimates Energy Use per Capita (Thousand BTU/person/day) 5 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations 214 OECD* Rest of World Key Growth India China Mexico Brazil Nigeria Egypt Turkey Iran Saudi Arabia India Thailand China Indonesia South Africa $72 Trillion (21$) *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 6 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations 24 214 OECD* Rest of World Key Growth India China 2.% per year 3.4% 3.5% 5.5% 5.% $72 Trillion (21$) ~$15 Trillion (21$) *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 7 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Middle Class and Urbanization Increase Global Middle Class Billion People 5 Urbanization Percent 1 4 3 Rest of World Key Growth 75 OECD* Turkey China Indonesia 2 China 5 India 1 India 25 OECD* '14 '3 198 2 22 24 Source: The Brookings Institution *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries Source: United Nations 8 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Developing Economies Dominate Growth Demand by Region Quadrillion BTUs 75 Rest of World 5 Key Growth India 25 China OECD* 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 9 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
United States Energy Trends Indexed to 2 2.5 GDP 2. 1.5 Population 1. Demand Carbon Emissions.5. 2 22 24 1 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
United States Energy Demand Primary Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs 4 1 25 4 3 2 1 2122524 Electricity 2122524 Industrial Transportation2122524 Res/Comm Generation 11 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
United States Energy Demand Primary Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs 4 3 1 25 4 Other Renewables Biomass Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 2 1 2122524 Electricity 2122524 Industrial Transportation 2122524 2122524 Res/Comm Generation 12 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Economics and policies impact the fuel mix. 13
CO Energy 2 Emissions Mix Shifts Plateau to Lower-Carbon Fuels Global Energy Mix Percent Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region Billion Tonnes 1% Biomass 4 Renewables 75% Nuclear 3 Rest of World Gas Key Growth 5% 2 India Coal China 25% 1 Oil OECD* % 214 24 2 22 24 *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 14 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Managing Climate Risk U.S. Average CO 2 Abatement Costs vs. Existing Coal Dollars per tonne 25 2 15 1 5 Existing Gas New Gas Onshore Wind Nuclear Utility Solar Rooftop Solar Wind and solar exclude full costs for integration and intermittency 15 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Oil remains the world s primary fuel through 24. 16
Transportation and Chemicals Drive Growth Liquids Demand by Sector MBDOE 75 25 4 5 1 25 Chemical Transportation Industrial Res/Comm Electricity Generation 17 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Transportation Demand Demand by Region MBDOE Sector Demand MBDOE 3 2 1 25 4 75 5 Rail Marine Aviation Heavy Duty 1 U.S. 25 Light Duty OECD* China India Key Growth Rest of World *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 2 22 24 18 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global Vehicle Fleet By Type Million Cars 2 Internal Combustion Engine Electric 15 Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell Hybrid Natural Gas & LPG Diesel Gasoline Lower Cost Convenience Improving Efficiency Natural Gas & LPG Hybrid Public Transport High Efficiency High Cost Range/Charging Limit Hydrogen Fuel Cell 1 5 '1 '15 '2 '25 '3 '35 '4 19 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency Average Vehicle Efficiency On-Road Miles per Gallon 75 6 45 Average Fleet 3 Europe 15 U.S. 21 22 23 24 2 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Transportation Fuel Demand World United States MBDOE MBDOE 75 45 6 Natural Gas Other Jet Fuel 45 Fuel Oil Biodiesel 3 3 Diesel 15 15 Ethanol Gasoline 2 22 24 2 22 24 21 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Supply 22
Liquids Production By Region MBDOE 12 By Type MBDOE 4 8 Other NonOPEC Russia 3 1 4 25 North America 2 4 OPEC 1 2 22 24 OPEC Non-OPEC NGLs Tight Oil Deepwater Oil Sands Other Conventional Crude and Condensate 23 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Liquids Trade Balance by Region MBDOE 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 Net Imports Net Exports Other Supply 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 1 2 3 4 North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific 24 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Natural gas grows more than any other energy source. 25
Gas Demand Grows in All Sectors Gas Demand by Sector BCFD 25 4 2 25 15 1 1 5 Electricity Generation Industrial Res/Comm Transportation 26 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Demand Continues to Surge By Sector Thousand TWh Electricity Demand by Region Thousand TWh 4 1 214 3 Transportation 8 China 2 Res/Comm 6 4 Key Growth United States Europe OECD 1 Industrial 2 India 2 22 24 198 21 24 27 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Wind and Solar Demand Global Wind and Solar Capacity Gigawatts 25 2 Electricity Share Delivered by Wind and Solar Percent 3 European Union 15 Solar 2 United States 1 1 China India 5 Onshore Wind Offshore Wind 21 225 24 21 225 24 28 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global Electricity Transitions Regional Generation Thousand TWh 12 12 12 12 12 4 1 25 Other Renewables 8 Wind 8 & Solar 8 8 8 Nuclear 4 4 4 4 4 Gas Coal Oil OECD* China India Key Growth Rest of World 29 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Supply 3
Natural Gas Supply By Production Type BCFD 6 By Delivery Type BCFD 6 LNG 4 Unconventional 4 Pipeline 2 2 Conventional Net Local Production 2 22 24 2 22 24 31 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Gas Trade Balance by Region BCFD 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 15 15 15 Net Imports Net Exports 15 Other Supply 15 15 15 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 3 4 North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific 32 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global Demand 24 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 25 2.7% 214 1.6% Average Growth / Yr. 214-24.9% 15 -.2% 1 5.3% 2.9% 4.8% 1.3% Oil Gas Coal Biomass Nuclear Solar / Wind / Biofuels Hydro / Geo 33 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
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