DIOMIS Conference, Paris, 10/3/2009 The Case for Infrastructure: How can we ensure sufficient Network & Terminal Capacity? Introduction to Session 2 by Eric Peetermans (SNCB/CTG UIC) & Uwe Sondermann (KombiConsult) website: http://www.uic.asso.fr/diomis Chart 1
DIOMIS project Issues covered AGENDA 2015 CT wagon technologies Long & heavy trains, CT production systems, Improving the use of available train length Best practice of CT terminal management International co-ordination of CT terminal evolution Infrastructure capacity reserves Trends of CT in Europe by 2015 Report on CT in Europe 2005 Chart 2
Combined transport in Europe 2005-2015 300 250 Prognosis Agenda 2015 (2005/2015) : 7.8% p.a. 268 200 150 100 125 Revised forecast based on 2007 actuals & assumptions on impacts of crisis 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Chart 3
More infrastructure investments Domestic & international CT trains on rail network: 2015 N of trains per day and direction on a double tracked electrified line > 173 145-173 121 144 < 120 Rate of employment > 100 % 85 100 % 70 84 % < 70 % 50 CT trains/day Rail network load 2015 (all ongoing & planned investments implemented) Chart 4
And in the USA: Future Corridor Volumes Compared to Current Corridor Capacity 2035 without Improvements Source: National Rail Freight Capacity Study, 2007 Chart 5
More infrastructure required : Top 25 terminal areas by 2015 for international CT Austria Belgium Czech Republic Denmark Germany Italy Poland Spain Transport areas with additional capacity need Graz Villach Wien Wels Genk Zeebrugge Praha Taulov Hamburg Köln München Neuss Ludwigshafen/Mannhe im Milano Gliwice Poznan Warszawa Barcelona Valencia 3.4 Million additional Loading Units capacity required By 2015 Madrid Le Havre Rotterdam Antwerp Zeebrugge Genk Paris Valencia Barcelona Taulov Bremerhaven Bremen Duisburg Neuss Köln Lübeck Hamburg Poznan Praha Nürnberg Wien Ludwigshafen/ Mannheim Wels Basel München Graz Villach Milano Verona Ljubljana Novara Bologna Roma Warszawa Gliwice Budapest 25 largest areas 9 end-of-corridor transport areas Chart 6
The availability of wagons for CT may also become a bottleneck! 120.000 100.000 Development of CT-wagon 2005/2015 in number of wagons 103.000 80.000 60.000 46.000 56.000 40.000 20.000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Current wagon Known Orders & Options Replacement Need Additional Need Source: DIOMIS 2 Report on Intermodal Rolling Stock in Europe 2005/2015, KombiConsult/UIC, December 2008 Chart 7
More efficient use of rail infrastructure Action Impact Low Medium High Comprehensive employment of train path saving rail production systems Incentives in infrastructure access tariffs to induce resource-saving production systems Improvement of the performance of services Enhanced process organization of rail traction services Implementation of advanced train and network capacity management systems Enforcement of longer and/or heavier trains including minor infrastructure adaptations Increased wagon axle loads Chart 8
More efficient use of rail infrastructure Evaluation of CT production systems rail infra struc ture performance indicator 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 Turntable traffic Mixed train Gateway traffic Group train Mainhub/ Megahub Shuttle train Direct train Liner train Y-shuttle 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 CT operator performance indicator Chart 9
More efficient use of terminal infrastructure Best practices of terminal management Flow factor Last rail mile logistics Road trucking services Opening hours Infrastructure use pricing Capacity management system Automated identification Separated rail and road handling Task management Punctual rail services Chart 10
More efficient use of terminal infrastructure Capacity impact of best practices Action Increased flow factor (use of tracks for > 1 service) Management of last mile (section between terminal and network) by terminal operator Capacity enlargement impact (%) 10 20 30 40 50 Supply of road trucking services by terminal Extended terminal opening hours Bonus-malus incentives on use of infrastructure IT-supported capacity management system Automated loading unit/wagon identification Separation of road- and rail-side handlings Prenotification-based task management Punctual rail services in arrival Chart 11
The Financial Challenge of bringing Infrastructure up to level: Estimate of the CER/McKinsey Business cases for a Primary European Freight Network (August 2007) Chart 12
And in the USA Infrastructure owned by the operating railway companies For integrated railroad companies like in the US, there is an advantage to re-invest in own infrastructure to physically attract new industries, examples from NS: steel plant in Alabama, VW project of plants in 3 sites located on NS network: Michigan, Alabama, Tennessee, Thyssen: Arkansas (with BNSF), Alabama (NS and CN) = Team Alabama. In the eyes of the US railway community, the separation Ops/Infra, as carried out in Europe, has led to sub-optimization Private/Public partnerships to upgrade/expand railway infrastructure, e.g: Alameda Corridor (in the L.A. region) Heartland Corridor (shorter route from the East Coast to Chicago) Patriot Corridor (Albany to New York) 148 Billion $ (2007 $) needed over the next 28 years for railway infrastructure expansion (AAR commissioned study) Demand for freight transportation will have increased by 88% by then (National Rail Freight Infrastructure Capacity and Investment Study, Cambridge Systematics) Some (insufficient) consideration has begun to be given with the Obama recovery plan Without this investment, 30% of the primary corridors will be operating above capacity by 2035, with the ensuing reverse modal shifts to an already congested (and also underfunded) highway system To be compared to the amounts of the bank bailouts! Chart 13
Strong involvement of all stakeholders required Actions IM RU IO TO MoT EC Other More efficient use of infrastructure Employment of infrastructure-efficient, train path-saving rail production systems Application of incentives in infrastructure access charging systems Improvement of punctuality of rail traction services Enhanced process organization of rail traction services Advanced train and network capacity management systems Implementation of longer and/or heavier trains including minor infrastructure adaptations 1) Increased wagon axle loads 1) Best practices in terminal operation and management More infrastructure investments and international co-ordination Implementation of ongoing and envisaged rail network investments International agreement on Achilles heels removal programme Realization of ongoing and envisaged terminal investments and intermodal hub programme Standardized process for international co-ordination of CT terminal development 1) Railway Industry Main Actor Involved Party Chart 14