Threatened Protection: The Status of Coastal Protected Areas of the Eastern United States Margaret Walls Resources for the Future
America s Conservation Investment Federal government 640 million acres of land 397 NPS sites, 560 National Wildlife Refuges, 700 million acres of BLM lands, 155 National Forests, and more 30+ land conservation programs spend >$6 billion/year on land acquisitions and easements (Walls et al. 2009) State government 80 state land conservation programs in 43 states spend ~$4 billion/year on land and easements (Walls et al. 2009) Land trusts The 4 largest have protected over 38 million acres of land
R.O.I. The return on these investments is sizeable Ecosystem services water purification, temperature regulation, carbon storage, flood mitigation, storm surge attenuation, wildlife habitat Recreational benefits In coastal settings, the return is especially high Beaches attenuate waves; wetlands reduce duration of surge, filter water entering estuaries, provide critical habitat, and more Recreational benefits: Lots of studies (see library at Center for the Blue Economy). Total nonmarket value of ocean recreation >$100 billion/year 85% of tourism revenues in U.S. are generated in coastal states The 10 National Seashores account for 18 million visitors/year
Climate Change These investments are at risk In coastal areas, storms and hurricanes are expected to worsen in intensity (IPCC 5 th Assessment) Sea level rise (SLR) projections vary by location but are between 1 and 6 feet by end of century for much of the East coast (Nicholls and Cazenave 2011; Slangen et al. 2014; Boesch et al. 2013) SLR not just about eventual inundation but also Erosion Increased coastal flooding Damage to wetlands & wetland migration Increased salinity in estuaries & saltwater intrusion in freshwater ponds & aquifers
Study Objectives Develop an inventory of coastal protected lands in shoreline counties of the 15 East coast states Location, ownership, land cover Assess threat from SLR Evaluate and compare states abilities to adapt Financial resources to replace inundated lands? Adaptation strategies/plans? Joint work with Becky Epanchin- Niell, Carolyn Kousky, Supriya Khadke
Shoreline Counties Shoreline counties are adjacent to the open ocean or major estuaries; residents are considered the population most directly affected by the coast (NOAA 2013)
Protected Lands in Shoreline Counties About 14.5 million acres of protected lands in shoreline counties in these 15 Eastern states Source: USGS Gap Analysis Program, Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US). Note: DOD lands with Status Code 4 removed from analysis.)
Protected Lands in Shoreline Counties, by Owner 24% is federal About 40% is stateowned; 55% state+local Federal FWS NPS FS Other 34.7% 30.0% 26.7% 8.6%
Protected Lands by Owner, by State
Land Cover of Protected Lands Mid-Atlantic, Total rotection status and region Mid-Atlantic, Protected Mostly forests Forests, farms, wetlands Mostly wetlands tlantic, Total New England, Protected Southeast, Total Mid-Atlantic, Protected Southeast, Protected Southeast, Total Southeast, Protected east, Total Mid-Atlantic, Protected Developed Cultivated/Pasture Grassland/Herbaceous Forests Scrub/Shrub Developed Cultivated/Pasture Southeast, Protected Palustrine Nonforested Wetlands Estuarine Wetlands Unconsolidated Shore Bare Land Open Water As we move north to south land cover changes from forest to wetlands. Palustrine Nonforested Wetlands Estuarine Wetlands Palustrine Forested Wetlands Grassland/Herbaceous Unconsolidated Shore Forests Bare Land Source: 2011 NOAA, Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP)
Sea Level Rise Methodology: NOAA s Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer Uses high-resolution LIDAR data to identify inundated lands at different increments of SLR Accounts for SLR on top of local tidal data through elevation transformations using NOAA s VDatum tool Limitations: Bath-tub model doesn t account for localized subsidence, accretion, migration, or for local waterways We obtained the data and analyzed a 3 ft SLR scenario (in all locations)
Percentage of Protected Lands within & outside 3 ft SLR zone Varies across states 3% in NY, NH, RI ~40% in VA, FL ~50% in NC, GA 56% in SC
Land Cover and Sea Level Rise
Adaptation: Do States Have the Resources? Can states replace these lost investments? States have a variety of land conservation programs funded by real estate transfer fees, document recording fees, license plate charges, lottery revenues, bonds, sales tax surcharges, and more Some programs use money for fee acquisitions and some for easements Type of lands targeted varies by state and by program Some examples: Florida Forever Maryland s Program Open Space and Rural Legacy New Jersey s Green Acres
State Conservation Spending vs Inundated Acreage of State Protected Lands Florida (not on graph): $246 million/ 1.9 mill inundated acres Source: Trust for Public Land s Conservation Almanac
Adaptation: Are States Planning? 9 of the 15 states have adaptation plans (Georgetown Climate Center 2014) 7 have set specific goals for oceans and coasts Most have exhibited very little or no progress toward stated goals States facing the biggest loss of land to SLR have no plans No plan Planning underway North Carolina South Carolina Georgia Delaware New Jersey Rhode Island Even among states with plans, protected lands are not a point of emphasis
Maryland Seems to be doing the most Blue Infrastructure Near-Shore Assessments: detailed spatial evaluation of coastal habitat and natural resources to incorporate estuarine priorities into targeting and land use planning Coastal Atlas, estuaries mapping tool With SLR, new wetland areas identified Greenprint tool, developed for use in conservation targeting, revised to remove lands that are likely to be subject to SLR by 2050 to avoid spending limited funding in areas likely to be submerged.
Thank you! Comments/suggestions/questions: walls@rff.org