Dr. Johannes Trüby, IEA Clean Coal Day, Tokyo 5 September 2017
Global CO 2 emissions flat for 3 years Global energy-related CO 2 emissions Gt 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 IEA analysis for 2016 shows that global CO 2 emissions did not increase for the third consecutive year in a row, even though the global economy grew
.. with regional variations Change in annual energy-related CO 2 emissions, 2016 Mt 300 200 +1.6% +6.7% +1.9% +2.7% GDP growth Change in CO 2 emissions 100 United States China European Union Rest of World -100-200 Coal-to-gas switching, alongside strong growth in low-carbon fuels & technologies, has been instrumental to the fall in emissions in the United States & China
Air pollution is an energy problem & an imperative for clean coal technologies Pollutant emissions, 2015 Nitrogen oxides (NO X ) Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) 108 Mt 81 Mt 41 Mt Coal 43% >99% Oil >99% 85% Biomass 61% 43% Coal Oil Energy-related Gas Non-energy Bioenergy Other Source: WEO Special Report: Energy and Air Pollution Energy is the single most important cause of emissions of all the main pollutants, boosting the case for gas in fast-growing urban & industrial centres
Renewables Renewables Mtoe A new fuel in pole position Change in total primary energy demand 2 000 1990-2015 2015-2040 1 500 1 000 500 Nuclear Rest of world European Union Latin America India US Africa China Nuclear Coal Oil Gas Coal Oil Gas Lowcarbon Lowcarbon Low-carbon fuels & technologies, mostly renewables, supply nearly half of the increase in energy demand to 2040
Coal: a rock in a hard place Change in coal demand by key region in the New Policies Scenario Mtce 800 600 400 200 0-200 -400 China United States European Union Japan & Korea Africa Southeast Asia India Developing countries face surging energy demand and cannot neglect a relatively low-cost source of energy like coal, even if they pursue others in parallel
Mtce China holds the levers to the coal market Coal production and coal mining capacity in China 4 000 3 000 2 000 Excess capacity Rest of world production Chinese capacity Chinese production 1 000 2014 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 China s coal market restructuring will have repercussions on global coal prices and thus on the commercial viability of gas vis-à-vis coal
A switch to cleaner coal Global coal demand by key sector in the New Policies Scenario 2014 (a) Power Mtce 600 1 200 1 800 2 400 3 000 3 600 2040 Subcritical Supercritical Ultra-supercritical IGCC and CCS CHP and heat 2014 (b) Industry Mtce 300 600 900 1 200 1 500 1 800 2 100 2040 Iron and steel Cement Chemicals Other Plant technology changes the power sector s demand structure, while chemicals are the primary growth engine for coal demand in industry
$/MWh Capital costs can tip the scale Full cost comparison of a subcritical and ultrasupercritical plant in developing Asia 80 70 60 50 40 30 Additional 5% CAPEX Capex 5% O&M Fuel costs 20 10 0 subcritical USC The cost of finance plays a key role for technology choice, but availability of skilled labour and engineering as well as local content considerations are important too
Dollars per MWh (2015) Gas is well placed in the US power sector Levelised cost of electricity generation for existing and new coal and gas plant in the United States, 2025 250 200 New coal plant 150 100 New gas plant 50 Existing gas plant Existing coal plant 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 85% Plant utilisation New CCGTs beat new coal plants on a commercial basis in the United States even in baseload generation
.. but the picture changes in markets where gas is imported Dollars per MWh (2015) Levelised cost of electricity generation for existing and new coal and gas plant in the European Union, 2025 250 200 New coal plant 150 New gas plant 100 50 Existing gas plant Existing coal plant 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 85% Plant utilisation The commercial case for coal-to-gas switching in power generation is not self-evident in the European Union
.. and coal is a very tough competitor across much of Asia Dollars per MWh (2015) Levelised cost of electricity generation for existing and new coal and gas plant in Asia, 2025 200 150 New coal plant 100 New gas plant 50 Existing gas plant Existing coal plant 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 85% Plant utilisation In most Asian gas-importing countries, the economic case for gas-for-power is limited to a role in meeting peaks in demand
Renewables are increasingly competitive in all markets Dollars per MWh (2015) Levelised cost of electricity by selected technologies, 2015 2040 160 120 80 40 CO 2 cost Coal Gas Solar PV Wind European Union China India Falling costs and rising electricity prices lead more renewables to be competitive; by 2040, nearly half of wind and solar PV do not require any subsidies
Unfinished business Energy-sector CO 2 emissions Gt 40 30 20 Early peak in emissions Net-zero by the end of the century 10 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Current pledges fall well short of limiting the temperature increase to below 2 C
Mtoe Challenges in a decarbonising system 5 000 Energy demand by fuel & scenario 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 Oil Coal Gas Main Scenario 2 C Scenario 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Coal is hit hardest in a 2 degree scenario & oil demand peaks before 2020: only consumption of natural gas ends up higher than today