Economics of GMO Technologies Joe Lauer University of Wisconsin
Overview Describe data set used and calculations Ranking of transgenic hybrids to the trial average Yield and grower return of transgenic corn hybrids compared to the: Trial average Normal dent corn hybrid average Sister lines Economics matrix
http://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu/select/
University of Wisconsin Corn Agronomy Program 22 Spooner Rhinelander White Lake Chippewa Falls Galesville Marshfield Hancock Seymour Valders Fond du Lac Arlington Lancaster Janesville
Calculating l Grower Return Grower return = (Yield x Price) - Handling ($.2 per bushel) - Hauling ($.4 per bushel) -Trucking g( ($.11 per bushel) - Drying ($.2 per bushel-point above 15.5%) - Storage ($.2 per 3 day) - Seed ($1 per Acre) for Transgenic corn Marketing plan: 5% sold at harvest, 25% at 4 months, and 25% at 8 months. gr25: Price per bushel = $2.5 Corn price ($/bu) $4. $3.5 $3. Seed price ($/A) PEPS $4 Corn price Seed price $35 $3 Livestock: $. drying, $.1 storage, $. trucking $2.5 $25 On-farm: $.2 drying, $.2 storage Commercial: $.4 drying, $.3 storage grpeps: Weighted Price per bushel = 5% November Average Cash price + 25% March CBOT Futures ($.15 basis) + 25% July CBOT Futures ($.1 basis) November Average Cash price derived from WI Ag Statistics; CBOT Futures prices derived from closing price on first business day in December. $2. $1.5 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 Year $2 $15
Frequency of Specialty Hybrids Yielding Above Average in the 22 WI Hybrid Trials 1 Frequency above trial average 83 72 Frequenc cy (%) 5 5 48 47 44 39 61 29 37 1998 (n=1611) 1999 (n=139) 2 (n=1361) 21 (n=1266) 22 (n=949) Bt (n=42) Bt,LL (n=58) Bt,RR (n=14) IMI (n=7) LL (n=4) RR (n=13) Normal Dent
Frequency of Bt Hybrids yielding Above the Trial Average in the WI Corn Trials 1 1 Fre equency (%) 5 69 55 57 6 7 72 65 1996 (n=12)1997 (n=52)1998 (n=118)1999 (n=323)2 (n=321)21 (n=267)22 (n=42) Average (n=151
Frequency of Gene Stack Hybrids Yielding Above the Trial Average in the WI Corn Trials 1 83 83 Frequenc cy (%) 5 67 61 66 71 42 67 67 61 61 1998 (n=39) 1999 (n=46) 2 (n=72) 21 (n=74) 22 (n=58) Average (n=289) 1999 (n=12) 2 (n=18) 21 (n=24) 22 (n=14) Average (n=158) Bt,LL Bt,RR
Frequency of Bt Hybrid Events yielding Above the Trial Average in the WI Corn Trials 1 11 All Bt Bt-YG 96 (%) quency Freq 5 69 86 73 55 57 5 6 57 82 7 72 65 78 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 Average
Frequency of IMI Hybrids (IT and IR)Yielding Above the Trial Average in the WI Corn Trials 1 Frequency (% %) 5 39 62 47 48 43 39 25 25 3 38 13 1992 (n=3)1993 (n=24) 1994 (n=28) 1995 (n=13) 1996 (n=12) 1997 (n=15) 1998 (n=33) 1999 (n=7) 2 (n=21) 21 (n=12) 22 (n=1) Average (n=24
Frequency of Liberty Link Hybrids Yielding Above the Trial Average in the WI Corn Trials 1 86 Frequenc cy (%) 5 61 6 5 4 54 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 Average (n=18) (n=5) (n=12) (n=1) (n=7) (n=4) (n=56)
Frequency of Roundup Ready Hybrids Yielding Above the Trial Average in the WI Corn Trials 1 y (%) requenc Fr 5 55 57 6 46 37 47 1998 1999 2 21 22 Average (n=55) (n=42) (n=47) (n=121 (n=13) (n=333)
Relative Performance of Specialty Hybrids Compared to the Trial Average (through 22) Specialty Grain Grain GR GR Trait N yield moisture Lodging $2.5 PEPS Bu/A % % $/A $/A Bt 1513 6.4 4.6 1.95 Bt-LL 289 8. 9.3 5.77 Bt-RR 158 6.3 4.45 3.5 IMI 241-4. -15.44-14.57 LL 56 1 9.9-8.23-8.57 RR 333-2.3-2.19-9.71 Grower return = (Yield x Corn price) (Drying+Handling+Hauling+Storage+Trucking) GR PEPS = $2.24/bu Drying=$.2/point bu, Handling=$.2/bu; Hauling=$.4/bu; Storage=$.2/bu mo; Trucking $.11/bu
Relative Performance of Specialty Hybrids Compared to the Average of Normal Corn (through 22) Specialty Grain Grain GR GR Trait N yield moisture Lodging $2.5 PEPS Bu/A % % $/A $/A Bt 1513 8.5 4.82 2.3 Bt-LL 289 1.1 9.57 9.81 Bt-RR 158 9.4-1 8.16 5.68 IMI 241-3.1-16.52-15.86 LL 56 2 1 1. -9.64-1.23 RR 333 -.1-9.9-9.17 Grower return = (Yield x Corn price) (Drying+Handling+Hauling+Storage+Trucking) GR PEPS = $2.24/bu Drying=$.2/point bu, Handling=$.2/bu; Hauling=$.4/bu; Storage=$.2/bu mo; Trucking $.11/bu
Relative Performance of Specialty Hybrids Compared to Normal Sister Lines (through 22) Specialty Grain Grain GR GR Trait N yield moisture Lodging $2.5 PEPS Bu/A % % $/A $/A Bt 124 4 1. -5.9-6.42 Bt-LL 7 15. -3 22.13 13.79 IMI 9-17.6-44.84-42.18 RR 28-2.1-1 -13.37-12.36 Grower return = (Yield x Corn price) (Drying+Handling+Hauling+Storage+Trucking) GR PEPS = $2.24/bu Drying=$.2/point bu, Handling=$.2/bu; Hauling=$.4/bu; Storage=$.2/bu mo; Trucking $.11/bu
Grower return of Bt Hybrids Compared to Normal Dent Corn Hybrids in the WI Corn Trials 26 24 gr25 grpeps 22 Favors BT Growe er return ($/A) 15-15 -2-1 -2-9 -8-9 -1-4 9 4 18 5 Favors Normal 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 Average 2
Breakeven Matrix for Corn Hybrid Seed Sold at Various Technology Fees Technology fee= Technology fee= Technology fee= $1 / bag $2 / bag $3 / bag Yield Corn price ($/Bu) Corn price ($/Bu) Corn price ($/Bu) increase (Bu/A) 2. 2.5 3. 2. 2.5 3. 2. 2.5 3. -4.13 413-4.13 413-4.13 413-8.25 82-8.25 82-8.25 82-12.38-12.38-12.38 2 -.13.87 1.87-4.25-3.25-2.25-8.38-7.38-6.38 4 387 3.87 587 5.87 787 7.87 -.25 25 175 1.75 375 3.75-4.38 438-2.38 238 -.38 38 6 7.87 1.87 13.87 3.75 6.75 9.75 -.38 2.63 5.62 8 11.87 15.87 19.87 775 7.75 11.75 15.75 362 3.62 762 7.62 11.62 1 15.87 2.87 25.87 11.75 16.75 21.75 7.62 12.62 17.62 Assume: 8, seeds/bag planted at 33, seeds/a for final population of 3, plants/a
Summary Bt, Bt-LL and Bt-RR corn hybrids yield and return more than the trial and normal dent corn average. At this time IMI, SR, LL, RR, Bt-IMI traits do not add to yield or grower return. IMI, SR, LL, RR, and Bt-IMI corn hybrids should only be recommended for problem fields or difficult management situations. Variation for grain yield exists among commercial Transgenic hybrids sold in Wisconsin. Care must be taken in selecting individual hybrids.