THE NORTH SOMERSET COUNCIL (SOUTH BRISTOL LINK CLASSIFIED ROAD) SIDE ROADS ORDER 2013 THE NORTH SOMERSET COUNCIL (SOUTH BRISTOL LINK) COMPULSORY PURCHASE ORDER 2013 THE NORTH SOMERSET COUNCIL (SOUTH BRISTOL LINK) COMPULSORY PURCHASE ORDER (NO. 2) 2014 EXCHANGE LAND CERTIFICATES IN RESPECT OF SPECIAL CATEGORY LAND SUMMARY PROOF OF EVIDENCE OF ILIAS DRIVYLAS BA MA MIED ON BEHALF OF NORTH SOMERSET COUNCIL in relation to ECONOMIC BENEFITS
1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 My name is liias Drivylas. I hold a Master of Arts in Economics and Finance from the University of Leeds and an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of Central England in Birmingham. I am also a member of the Institute of Economic Development. I have 14 years' experience as an economist and I specialise in economic development and regeneration work. i am a Principal Economist in the Planning and Economics team of Atkins Ltd, a position I have held since 2011. 2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT 2.1 South Bristol faces multiple socio-economic challenges, including lower than average levels of economic activity, high levels of unemployment, low skill levels, lower-value jobs and extensive and acute deprivation in terms of income, employment, health, education, skills and crime deprivation (Appendix 2). The area has a high dependence on public sector jobs and low value-added activity in retail and manufacturing sectors (Appendix 3). There is significant out-commuting from the area due to the limited number of employment opportunities available locally and a key priority for the area is the attraction of new businesses and the creation of new jobs. 2.2 These objectives are reflected in local and sub-regional policy documents including the Bristol and North Somerset Core Strategies and the West of England LEP's Strategic Economic Plan. Bristol's Core Strategy (CD 2n) identifies south Bristol as a priority focus for development and regeneration including 60,000m2 of net additional office floorspace; up to 10 hectares of new industrial and warehousing land; and 8,000 new homes. 2.3 The West of England LEP's Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) (CD 7/2) identifies south Bristol as a deprived, priority regeneration area facing a range of issues including low skill levels, high unemployment and social inclusion problems. The SEP's objectives for the area include the provision of 10,400 new jobs with an emphasis on the manufacturing and construction sectors. The Scheme is identified as an important enabling tool for the regeneration and economic growth of south BristoL. 1
3. LOCAL PERSPECTIVES Stakeholder Consultation 3.1 Consultation undertaken in 2012 as part of the "Unlocking Our Potential: The Economic Benefits of Transport Investment in the West of England" (CD 3/11) study showed strong support for the scheme from local businesses; local property and land agents; economic development professionals from the West of England Local Authorities; and Further and Higher Education institutions. 3.2 Businesses confirmed the importance of good transport infrastructure in enabling growth and new development to occur. Property agents described the existing commercial and industrial land markets in south Bristol as being weak compared to the wider Bristol context. The key reason given was historically inadequate transport links. 3.3 There is strong support for the Scheme by the business community. This is evident by the letters of support from key employers based in the wider area such as Airbus, Bristol Airport, Bristol City Football Club, Computershare and the Cater Road Business Park Traders' Group. A sample of business support letters are provided in Appendix 7. A common message of these support letters is the importance of good transport accessibility and the need of further investment to address congestion in the area. Business Survey 3.4 The findings of a telephone survey conducted with a cross-section of 100 businesses in the south Bristol area in October 2012 also highlighted the importance of transport for local businesses and their support for the Scheme. 3.5 The majority of businesses surveyed said that road transport and connectivity was 'very important' to their business operation in south Bristol, congestion in the area affected their operations and they were 'definitely' concerned about congestion on the roads increasing in the future. The majority of businesses said that the Scheme would benefit their business listing improved journey speed, accessibility to customers and journey time reliability as the main benefits. 2
4. TRANSPORT AND THE ECONOMY 4.1 Good quality transport infrastructure is widely recognised as a key factor in enabling economic growth. Good access to customers, suppliers and a skilled labour market is important to businesses. The importance of transport to the economy is supported by a range of respected research studies such as the Eddington Transport Study published in 2006 (CD 7/3) and the Commons Select Committee's Transport and the Economy report (CD 7/4). 4.2 South Bristol faces particular challenges in unlocking regeneration and new employment to improve economic prospects and outcomes for local residents. The area has complex socio-economic needs but as the stakeholder consultation and business survey results demonstrate transport issues are a particular challenge in unlocking the potential of the area. 4.3 In the absence of transport improvements south Bristol is expected to face significant growth challenges, increasing the costs to local businesses and affecting the competitiveness of the area and its ability to unlock new development. Furthermore, congestion in the south Bristol area (alongside the congestion hotspots in the city centre and the North Fringe) will pose particular challenges in unlocking the full potential of the Enterprise Zone and Enterprise Areas in the wider sub-region. Reliability Benefits 4.4 The Scheme will improve accessibility and journey time reliability (NSC/3/1) from south Bristol to the city centre and to strategic transport links, including the national road network and Bristol Airport. 4.5 The new orbital route is projected to improve journey reliability and in doing so will help transform people's and businesses' perceptions of the area. More reliable and predictable journey times are significant in economic terms because they reduce travel costs and increase productivity, efficiency and accessibility. The Eddington Transport Study notes that the importance of reliability is growing with the wide-spread adoption of just-in time management 3
techniques and the punctual arrival of materials and workers becoming increasingly important for the efficient operation of modern businesses. 5. ECONOMIC IMPACTS Value for money 5.1 The Scheme will generate significant economic benefits and will provide very good value for money. According to the Transport Economic Efficiency (TEE) calculations, the Scheme will have a Present Value of Costs (PVC) of approximately 39.4 million and a Present Value of Benefits (PVB) of approximately 245.4 million. This results in a Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) of 6.23 (NSC/3/1). This means the Scheme will return 6.23 for every 1 spent on it and therefore represents very high value for money. Employment impacts 5.2 A key benefit of the Scheme will be unlocking the economic potential of south Bristol through improved accessibility, which will support the expansion of existing activity, improve the attractiveness of sites to potential investors and facilitate development. Atkins undertook an assessment of the employment and GVA impacts of the Scheme as part of the "GVA Impacts of Major Transport Schemes" (CD 7/1) report. The approach to this assessment is summarised in Appendix 5. 5.3 According to the West of England LEP's Strategic Economic Plan (CD 7/2), south Bristol has the potential for over 10,000 new jobs. However without transport improvements it is considered unlikely that this potential will be realised. Without the Scheme or the wider bus rapid transit (BRT) being constructed it is unlikely that sites would come forward for development in any significant way or that existing economic activity would be intensified and employment densities improved. This is supported by the findings of the stakeholder consultation discussed earlier. 5.4 South Bristol currently faces significant challenges in terms of all major transport modes including congested local transport services and constrained 4
connectivity to the rail and motorway networks. These constraints affect all sectors of south Bristol's economy. Taking into account the current transport constraints, the analysis undertaken by Atkins suggests that in the region of 10% of south Bristol's employment growth aspirations (approximately 1,000 jobs) are deliverable without transport intervention. 5.5 Following the delivery of the Scheme, Atkins' assessment estimates that a further 2,500 jobs (gross) could be unlocked by 2030. This is based on the projection of a linear relationship between transport and economic growth, Le. the economy growing as transport connectivity improves. According to Atkins' analysis, the transport improvements resulting from the Scheme, would unlock approximately a quarter (25% x 10,000 jobs = 2,500 jobs) of south Bristol's long-term employment potential. 5.6 Furthermore, the Scheme is indicatively expected to help unlock some 800 jobs in the Temple Quarter growth area. This is because the Scheme will contribute to reducing congestion in the city centre and will have a particularly positive impact in terms of improving journeys between Bristol city centre and Bristol Airport. 5.7 Based on the above, the number of gross jobs unlocked by the Scheme by 2030 has been estimated to be 3,300, with 3,100 of these jobs being net additional at the sub-regional level. While the Scheme is expected to play a major role and act as a catalyst in unlocking south Bristol's employment growth potential, it cannot unlock the full extent of south Bristol's economic potential by itself and this is reflected in Atkins' assessment that it could help unlock some 2,500 of the 10,000 jobs identified in the SEP. Gross Value Added 5.8 The employment growth unlocked by SBL will also generate significant additional Gross Value Added (GVA) for the sub-regional economy. GVA is a measure of the value of goods and services produced in an area, industry or sector of an economy. 5
5.9 The total net additional GVA unlocked by the scheme by 2030 is estimated to be approximately 199m per year. This is based on the number of net additional jobs that could be potentially unlocked by SBL and the average GVA per worker for the sectors that are likely to benefit from the Scheme and which are outlined in Appendix 6. Further employment and wider economic impacts 5.10 Further to the jobs unlocked by the Scheme, the construction and subsequent operation of the scheme is expected to create a number of short and longterm employment opportunities in the area. As with any physical development there will be demand for skilled construction workers and engineers during the construction phase. After the Scheme becomes operational, there will be some additional permanent job opportunities for drivers and other support staff. Additional effects relate to wider impacts such as improvements to accessibility - particularly to employment but also education/ training, leisure and recreation that will be available in Bristol City Centre and south BristoL. 6. CONCLUSION 6.1 In conclusion, i consider that transport is a major barrier to economic growth in south Bristol and investment in transport infrastructure is important for unlocking new growth. The Scheme will deliver a combination of more attractive public transport services and more reliable journeys for all users of the transport network. Furthermore, it will help unlock wider benefits through improved perceptions of the area, both from existing businesses and potential inward investors. 6.2 The project demonstrates a strong economic case, generating significant economic efficiency savings for both consumer and business users and providing very high value for money. It is also estimated to potentially unlock some 3,100 net additional jobs across south Bristol and the Temple Quarter Enterprise Zone and unlock some 199m of additional GVA per year. 6