Adaptation of Canada s boreal forest and its forest sector to climate change impacts

Adaptation of Canada s boreal forest and its forest sector to climate change impacts Sylvie Gauthier, Pierre Bernier, Phil. J. Burton, Kendra Isaac, Nathalie Isabel, Karelle Jayen, Heloïse Le Goff and Elizabeth Nelson

Assessment of vulnerabilities Exposure Increase in temperature; Increase in drought conditions Sensitivity Fires dominating forest dynamics Impacts Increase in fire activity Variation in timber supply over time Smoke in communities Adaptive capacity Pyrophilous species Modify harvesting practices (salvage) Vulnerability Change in local species abundance Periodic shortage of timber supply Lack of adaptive capacity in institutions and communities Opportunity Increase in some species Markets for harvest residues

Objectives Conduct a literature review and synthesis (i) to identify vulnerabilities of the Canadian boreal forest management system to climate change; and (ii) to provide a link between the identified vulnerabilities and potential adaptation actions.

The managed boreal forest of Canada Integrated socio-ecological system Goods and services from forest ecosystems Managed in a sustainable manner (SFM).

Vulnerability assessment Forest Climate Change Other of change Exposure to Sensitivity to Impact of Adaptive capacity Human Vulnerabilities Climate Change Other of change Exposure to Sensitivity to Impact of Adaptive capacity Vulnerabilities

Vulnerability assessment Forest Climate Change Other of change Exposure to Sensitivity to Impact of Adaptive capacity Human Vulnerabilities Climate Change Other of change Exposure to Sensitivity to Impact of Adaptive capacity Vulnerabilities

Projected impacts on the forest subsystem: Regional increases in disturbance rates fire, insect outbreaks and disease

Relative growth Projected impacts on the forest subsystem: Regional increases in disturbance rates fire, insect outbreaks and disease Regional changes in forest productivity Black spruce Jack pine Years

Projected impacts on the forest subsystem: Regional increases in disturbance rates fire, insect outbreaks and disease Regional changes in forest productivity Unknown or unforeseen effects Adaptive capacity of the forest: Relatively high adaptive capacity of boreal tree species large population size; large distribution area; high level of genetic variation; disturbance adaptation

Vulnerabilities of the forest sub-system Increases in disturbance rates and species invasion: Affect stand age structure (decrease in areas of old forests) Change in tree species abundance Invasives???

Vulnerabilities of the forest sub-system Increases in disturbance rates and species invasion: Affect stand age structure (decrease in areas of old forests) Change tree species abundance Invasives??? Forest resilience Locally change in forest state (closed forest to open woodland)

Vulnerabilities of the forest sub-system Increases in disturbance rates and species invasion: Affect stand age structure (decrease in areas of old forests) Change species pool; Invasives??? Forest resilience Change in forest state (from closed forest to open woodland) Uncertainties + surprises

Adaptation options in the literature Table S1 Adaptation options proposed in the literature for the managed boreal forest Target areas of adaptation General vulnerability Detailed vulnerability Adaptation option Références Reduce stresses on forest ecosystem Forest resilience Decreased health and viability of forest ecosystems due to cumulative impacts of multiple stressors Integrated multi-sectoralsector land management to reduce cumulative impacts; reduce current stress factors: educereduce current stress factors: 1) Regulate atmospheric pollutants or CO2 emissions or use forest management as a CO2 sink. 2) Manage tourism, recreation and grazing impacts. 3) Restore degraded areas to maintain genetic diversity and promote ecosystem health. 4) Reduce landscape fragmentation. Ogden and Innes 2007; Blate et al. 2009; Joyce et al. 2008; Konkin and Hopkins 2009; Lemprière et al. this volume Reduce stresses on forest ecosystem Forest resilience Decreased health and viability of forest ecosystems due to cumulative impacts of multiple stressors Work with others to ensure that stressors outside the control of the forest manager are minimized Ogden and Innes 2007 Reduce sensitivity of the forest ecosystem Reduce sensitivity of the forest ecosystem Forest resilience Alteration of plant and animal distribution Modify seed transfer zones Williamson et al. 2009; Johnston et al. 2010 Forest resilience Alteration of plant and animal distribution Plant alternative genotype or new species in anticipation of future climate Williamson et al. 2009; Johnston et al. 2010; Ogden and Innes 2007 Reduce sensitivity of the forest ecosystem Forest growth/productivity variations Decreased forest growth Adapt silvicultural rules and practices to ensure the growth rate of trees is maintained or enhanced. For instance, use of pre-commercial thinning or selectively remove suppressed damages or poor quality individuals to increase resource availability to the remaining trees. Ogden and Innes 2007; Bernier and Schoene 2009; Johnston et al. 2009; Blate et al. 2009 Reduce sensitivity of the forest ecosystem Forest growth/productivity variations Decreased forest growth Employ vegetation control techniques to offset drought Ogden and Innes 2007 Reduce sensitivity of the forest ecosystem Forest growth/productivity variations Decreased forest growth Focus silviculture investments in areas projected to have relatively stable climates Rose and Burton 2009 Reduce sensitivity of the forest ecosystem Forest growth/productivity variations Decreased forest growth Enhance forest growth throught forest fertilization Ogden and Innes 2007 Reduce sensitivity of the forest ecosystem Forest growth/productivity variations Populations or species are no longer suited to site conditions Reduce the rotation age followed by planting to speed the establishment of better adapted species Ogden and Innes 2007; Johnston et al. 2009 Reduce sensitivity of the forest ecosystem Forest growth/productivity variations Populations or species are no longer suited to site conditions Planting logged sites with species or populations expected to be adapted to the new climate Campbell et al. 2009 Reduce sensitivity of the forest ecosystem Forest growth/productivity variations Populations or species are no longer suited to site conditions Planting seedlings from a range of seed sources, particularly from more southern or lower-elevation populations; planting genetically modified species and identify more suitable genotypes Ogden and Innes 2007; Bernier and Schoene 2009; Campbell et al. 2009 Reduce sensitivity of the forest ecosystem Forest growth/productivity variations Populations or species are no longer suited to site conditions Underplant with other species or genotypes where the current advanced regeneration is unaccepatble Ogden and Innes 2007; Campbell et al. 2009 Reduce stresses on forest ecosystem Disturbances and species invasion Invasions by non native species Control invasive species (plants, insects, diseases, etc.) Ogden and Innes 2007; Johnston et al. 2009; Campbell et al. 2009

Adaptation options for the forest subsystem Forest Climate Change Other of change 1 Exposure to Sensitivity to 2 Human Impact of Vulnerabilities Adaptive capacity 3 Climate Change Other of change Exposure to Sensitivity to Impact of Adaptive capacity Vulnerabilities

Examples of adaptation actions for the forest sub-system Reduce other stressors Regulate atmospheric pollutants Control invasive species

Examples of adaptation actions for the forest sub-system Reduce other stressors Regulate atmospheric pollutants Control invasive species Reduce sensitivity Investments in areas with projected stable climate Fuel management

Examples of adaptation actions for the forest sub-system Reduce other stressors Regulate atmospheric pollutants Control invasive species Reduce sensitivity Focus silviculture investments in areas with projected stable climate Maintain or increase adaptive capacity Preserve or enhance ecosystem resilience (heterogeneity, diversity, etc.); Enable the ecosystem to respond to the forecasted changes

Impacts on human sub-system Climate Change Forest Other of change Exposure to Sensitivity to Impact of Adaptive capacity Human Vulnerabilities Climate Change Other of change Large and rapid variation in timber supply; Exposure to Sensitivity to Change in species mix; Impact of Adaptive capacity Accessing the resources (winter; fire; flood; etc.); Vulnerabilities Increase cost of management (disturbance protection; forest regeneration).

Adaptive capacity of the human subsystem Nascent stage of assessment; One assessment of forest management organizations in Canada: Positive: High level of education; Access to technology and knowledge; Negative: Lack of financial resources; Lack of information about impacts at local to regional scales; Lack of flexibility in management framework.

Vulnerabilities of the human sub-system Rapid change in timber supply quantity or quality

Vulnerabilities of the human sub-system Rapid change in timber supply quantity or quality Changes in non-timber forest goods and services

Vulnerabilities of the human sub-system Rapid change in timber supply quantity or quality Changes in non-timber forest goods and services Accessing the resource

Vulnerabilities of the human sub-system Rapid change in timber supply quantity or quality Changes in non-timber forest goods and services Accessing the resource Costs of forest management

Vulnerabilities of the human sub-system Rapid change in timber supply quantity or quality Changes in non-timber forest goods and services Accessing the resource Costs of forest management Increasing health and safety issues

Adaptation options of the human subsystem Forest Climate Change Other of change Exposure to Sensitivity to Impact of Adaptive capacity Human Vulnerabilities Climate Change Other of change 4 Exposure to Sensitivity to 5 Impact of Adaptive capacity 6 Vulnerabilities

Examples of adaptation actions for the forest sector Reduce other stressors Develop new markets

Harvest volume (Mm 3 / decade) Examples of adaptation actions for the forest sector Reduce other stressors Develop new markets Reduce sensitivity Accounting for disturbances in all planning phases Significant fluctuations in harvestable volume when fire is not taken into account in planning Fire taken into account Fire not taken into account Martell and Savage 2010 27

Examples of adaptation actions for the forest sector Reduce other stressors Develop new markets for wood from disturbed regions Reduce sensitivity Accounting for disturbances in all planning phases Enhance adaptive capacity Increase awareness about potential impacts Add flexibility to the system Adaptive management

Conclusion Efficient adaptation of the forest management system will revolve around: the inclusion of risk management in planning processes, the selection of robust, diversified and no-regret adaptation actions, and the adoption of an adaptive management framework where monitoring is highlighted as a key no-regret option for adaptation in the face of climate change